Shanxi Securities: It is expected that the lowest point of coal prices this year has already occurred, and it is unlikely that prices will retest in the second half of the year.

Shanxi Securities research report stated that, in July, the fundamentals were relatively supportive. The price increase of thermal coal was relatively moderate, while coking coal showed a stronger trend. The fundamentals did not exceed market expectations yet, but the market began to adjust its summer price expectations at the end of July, leading to a significant increase in coal stock prices. In August, the market became more focused on policy implementation and supply-demand situation after raising expectations. Currently, both the industrial market and financial market are more sensitive to positive news, and there is a focus on the acceleration of price increases. It is expected that the coal price has hit a low point for the year, and there is a high probability that the price will not retrace in the second half of the year. This is a "mild storm" caused by anti-"involution". Regarding coal, anti-"involution" does not equal supply-side reform, and the expected intensity will be milder than supply-side reform. On one hand, coal has not been included in the top ten industries with production restrictions, and on the other hand, the industry has not yet triggered debt risks. In the future, in addition to measures such as limiting overcapacity and enhancing safety supervision, there may be a reduction in previously approved production capacity, leading to expectations of contraction in capacity and production. Although this round of anti-"involution" did not specifically focus on coal, there is a certain "follow the trend" behavior in the industry, and this trend may trigger a "mild storm".