GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

The Dow Jones opened down 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

Goldman Sachs fell 2.8%, with record high Q1 trading revenue, but bond trading performance was lackluster. Revolution Medicines surged 143.2%, with success in late-stage trial of pancreatic cancer drug. Leggett & Platt rose 8.4%, announcing acquisition agreement with bedding manufacturer Sominigroup. Replimune dropped 63.2%, with FDA rejecting listing application for RP1 again. Best Buy fell 4.3%, with Goldman Sachs downgrading its rating to "sell."

OPEC will lower the global oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day, but the demand estimate for the second half of the year is expected to be correspondingly raised, keeping the annual demand forecast unchanged.

The central bank: the incremental scale of social financing in the first quarter accumulated to 14.83 trillion yuan, which was 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

According to the data from the central bank, preliminary statistics show that the increment of social financing in the first quarter of 2026 accumulated to 14.83 trillion yuan, which is 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, the RMB loans granted to the real economy increased by 8.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 796 billion yuan compared to the previous year; the foreign currency loans granted to the real economy in terms of RMB increased by 852 billion yuan, an increase of 181.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year; entrusted loans decreased by 657 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year; trust loans increased by 132 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 579.7 billion yuan, an increase of 49.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 521.3 billion yuan compared to the previous year; net financing of government bonds was 3.54 trillion yuan, a decrease of 330.3 billion yuan compared to the previous year; domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises was 117.3 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1 billion yuan compared to the previous year.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs introduces the arrangement of the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to China.

At the invitation of Wang Yi, member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will make an official visit to China from April 14th to 15th. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiajun said at a regular press conference on the 13th that during Lavrov's visit, the two foreign ministers will exchange views on the development of bilateral relations, cooperation in various fields, and international and regional issues of common concern, coordinating positions. "China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners in the new era. In recent years, the two countries have continuously deepened their permanent good-neighborly and friendly relations, expanded comprehensive strategic cooperation, adhered to mutually beneficial cooperation and win-win outcomes, maintained close communication and coordination in international and regional affairs, and made important contributions to promoting a more equal and orderly multipolar world, reforming and improving global governance, and safeguarding international fairness and justice," Guo Jiajun said. He introduced that during Lavrov's visit, the two foreign ministers will exchange views on the development of bilateral relations, cooperation in various fields, and international and regional issues of common concern, coordinating positions. "We will release timely information on the specific details of this visit, please stay tuned." Guo Jiajun said.

Meta is building the AI version of Mark Zuckerberg.

Meta is currently developing an artificial intelligence version of Mark Zuckerberg, which can interact with employees on his behalf. This is one of the important steps in this tech giant's comprehensive transition to AI. According to four sources familiar with the matter, the $1.6 trillion company has been developing AI 3D digital humans that are photo-realistic and can interact in real time. Three of the sources mentioned that the AI version of Zuckerberg has been prioritized as a project recently. The sources also revealed that Zuckerberg himself has personally been involved in training and testing this animated AI image, which will be able to provide dialogue and feedback to employees in the future. The training materials include the billionaire's behavior, tone, public statements, and recent thoughts on company strategy, all aimed at helping employees get closer to the founder by interacting with AI.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is facing an "epic" short seller: analysts warn that the stock price could potentially plummet by 93% to $25.

Johnson's bearish stance is mainly based on Tesla's expected price-to-earnings ratio of about 175 times. He believes that this valuation level is difficult to sustain given the company's current performance.

In the afternoon, all three major indices turned red, with over 2000 individual stocks in the entire market seeing an increase.

English media: Trump's "lockdown order" forces the suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the British shipping media "Lloyd's List" reported on the 12th, after US President Trump announced a blockade against Iran, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill. The report stated that before Trump announced the "blockade order," the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz had slightly increased on the 11th, and although the shipping volume in the strait decreased on the 12th, it was still passable. However, "after Trump announced the implementation of a maritime blockade, all traffic seems to have stopped," with at least two ships that were originally leaving the strait turning back. US Central Command said on the 12th that it will begin implementing a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports at 10 am on the 13th, Eastern Time, in accordance with the president's orders. A report released by the UK-based maritime analysis company Windward on the 12th stated that the US action has introduced a second level of control to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, with ships potentially facing restrictions not only from Iran but also from US military actions. The Strait of Hormuz is in a "controlled and unstable" state, with a growing risk of direct conflict between nation-state actors.

Inflation "reignites"! The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations shatters expectations of a rate cut, prompting bond traders to urgently delay expectations of a rate cut until 2027.

The failure of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran further shifted the focus of the bond market towards inflation and reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time.

Polycrystalline silicon continuous main contract rose 6% intraday, now reported at 33,850.00 yuan.

Sichuan: During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, a number of major scientific and technological projects will be implemented in the fields of artificial intelligence, advanced materials, aviation equipment, low-altitude intelligence, optoelectronic technology, new energy storage, nuclear medicine, etc.

Sichuan Province has released the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. It proposes to focus on the development of key industries and the improvement of people's livelihoods through technological advancements, optimizing the layout of key research areas, and strengthening technology research and development from 1 to 10. Around the fields of artificial intelligence, advanced materials, aviation equipment, low-altitude intelligence, optoelectronic technology, new energy storage, nuclear medicine, etc., a number of major scientific and technological projects will be implemented, with extraordinary measures taken to promote technological research and development, transformation of achievements, standard formulation, industry incubation, and accelerate the application of research results and product iteration. Strengthen the technological breakthroughs of key industrial chains, and promote the rapid breakthrough of key core technologies in areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, basic software, biomanufacturing, and green hydrogen along the entire chain. Strengthen technological research and development for ensuring strategic security, enhance the scientific and technological support capabilities in the fields of food security, exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, ecological environment protection and restoration, major construction projects, and geographic information security. Promote technological innovation in areas such as health and sanitation, urban construction, and emergency safety, and improve the level of scientific and technological supply for people's livelihoods.

Sichuan Province's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan": Support Chengdu and Mianyang to carry out scientific and technological financial reform and innovation, and promote comprehensive pilot projects of intellectual property financial ecological system.

Sichuan Province has released the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, which proposes improving policies and measures to encourage long-term capital investment and dare to invest, making good use of various funds and providing financing services for the entire life cycle of fundraising, project investment, post-investment management, and exit and realization. Promote the enterprise "innovation point system" and drive the linkage of science and technology finance "equity loan bond guarantee" to empower technology-based enterprises with increased credit. Guide more eligible technology-based enterprises, equity investment institutions, and financial institutions to issue technology innovation bonds. Implement a special guarantee plan for technological innovation, optimize the "Tianfu Science and Technology Loan", and strengthen technological insurance service innovation. Support Chengdu and Mianyang to carry out financial reform and innovation in science and technology, and promote comprehensive pilot projects in the financial ecology of intellectual property rights.

The Hang Seng Index fell more than 1%, currently at 25633.031 points; The Hang Seng Tech Index is now down 0.810%.

The US stock earnings season kicks off amid the turmoil of Middle East conflicts! The profitability of banks, technology, and consumer sectors will determine the fate of the bull market.

Ceasefire can hardly conceal the big profit test! The earnings season coincides with the surge in oil prices, and the prospects of banks, technology, and consumption have become the strongest narrative for trading in the US stock market.

From the ceasefire frenzy to the "stagflation" storm sweeping once again, the narrative of the bull market in stocks and bonds faces a major test.

Multiple clear signs indicate that global inflation is heating up, and even the expectation of "stagflation" is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The "Higher-for-Longer" narrative is making it clear that the recent rally in stocks and bonds driven by the prospect of a ceasefire between the US and Iran is facing a major test.

Brent crude oil rose 9% intraday to $103.78 per barrel.

Negotiations collapsed, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed! The US launches a blockade order in the Gulf of Hormuz. Brent oil breaks through the $103 barrier and European natural gas skyrockets by 18%.

As the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement after marathon negotiations in Pakistan, the US immediately announced a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe impact on the global energy supply chain. As a result, oil and natural gas prices soared significantly.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard: The Strait of Hormuz allows non-military vessels to pass.

On April 12th local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued Announcement No. 59, stating that non-military vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as they comply with specific navigation guidelines. The statement warned that any military vessels from any country attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of their pretext, will be seen as violating the ceasefire agreement and will face a strong and firm response from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy.

Bitcoin fell below $71,000, dropping 2.83% intraday.

After repeated fluctuations, A-shares are expected to rise again. What are the investment themes? The strategies of the top ten securities firms have arrived.

The latest strategy viewpoints from the top ten securities firms are freshly released.

CITIC SEC: The market will focus on narrowing the circle and pay attention to four directions of AI hardware, resources, cyclical price increases, and dividends.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the market will continue to narrow its focus, with four directions of narrowing including AI hardware, resources, cyclical price increases, and dividends. Of these four remaining trends, the main difference in expectations exists in the areas of domestic AI hardware and cyclical price increases.

Guolian Minsheng: Super node boosts computational efficiency improvement, domestic computing power may welcome the opportunity for "overtaking on a curve"

In the era of AI Agent, the non-linear growth of token demand may directly lead to AI computing power requirements exceeding expectations, with super nodes expected to become an important trend in AI computing power development; domestic super nodes are currently rapidly developing and are poised to become an important opportunity for domestic computing power to achieve a "curve overtaking" moment.

Guosen: war evasion weakened, car industry stock prices and fundamentals repaired

Guoxin Overseas Stock Selection Strategy Portfolio have all increased. The main one with a significant increase is the ROE strategy all-weather type (+3.2%).

Guolian Minsheng Securities releases a preview of the first quarter report for the home appliance industry in 2026: Disturbances in the base number, waiting for recovery.

Guolian Minsheng Securities releases a preview of the first quarter report for the home appliance industry in 2026.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: Power shortage remains the main theme for the whole year, continue to be optimistic about the gas turbine industry chain.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that power shortages are still the main trend for the whole year, and they continue to be optimistic about the gas turbine industry chain.

Bitcoin falls below $72,000, down 1.43% on the day.

The "marathon-style negotiations" between them will continue.

According to the Iranian Tasnim News Agency, the third round of face-to-face negotiations between Iran and the United States in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, has ended, but the "marathon-style negotiations" will continue. The report said that the third round of talks between Iran and the US has ended, and both sides have sent expert teams for text exchange. The report pointed out that there are still serious differences between the Iranian and American delegations in the negotiations. The US side must abandon its consistent "excessive demands" and adopt a more realistic attitude, instead of "asking for the moon."

The full process full element testing of 2026 humanoid robot half marathon begins.

On the evening of April 11th to the early morning of the 12th, the 2026 humanoid robot half marathon was held in Beijing Yizhuang for a full-process and comprehensive testing activity, fully simulating the scenarios of track passage, process scheduling, and equipment coordination. Dozens of teams participated in the testing, with autonomous navigation teams and remote control teams testing together at night.

The US denies agreeing to unfreeze assets, while Iran says the conditions for negotiations have not been met.

US officials deny reports that the US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets. Earlier, it was reported that a senior Iranian official said the US had agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets frozen in Qatar and other foreign banks. A Pakistani government official said that the negotiation process between Iran and the US is slower than expected and may take longer. Currently, it seems that the US is eager to achieve a certain goal, while Iran is not in a hurry to reach an agreement.

Iranian Speaker: If the US uses negotiation as a show, Iran is prepared to respond.

Iranian parliamentary speaker Kalibaf said in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, in the early hours of the 11th local time that Iran is willing to negotiate with the United States, but does not trust the American side because previous negotiations "always ended in failure and breach of trust." If the US tries to use this negotiation as a show, Iran is prepared to defend its rights.

"Post-war trade wind" is here! Bank of America shouts the golden age of commodities, semiconductors, consumer and Chinese technology are poised to take off.

Long-term government bond yield curve steepening, consumer sector, semiconductor sector, and Chinese technology stocks, plus a bigger background judgment - that is, global stock markets are difficult to fall deeply under policy stabilization, and in the view of Bank of America, it is only second to commodities in core trading themes under the framework of the "post-war trading tailwind".

Iran conflict triggers energy inflation! US CPI in March posts the largest increase in nearly four years, while expectations for interest rate cuts cool off.

As a result of the escalating conflict in Iran driving up gasoline prices and the ongoing transmission effect of tariffs, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States saw the largest increase in nearly four years in March, further reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year.

Yu Weiwen: In the future, the threshold for issuing stablecoin issuer licenses will be high, and the overall quantity will also be very limited.

The President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Eddie Yue, stated that there is no clear inclination towards issuing new licenses in the future at this stage, and reiterated that the threshold for issuing licenses is quite high. Even if there are new licenses issued in the future, the overall number of licenses will be very limited.

Southbound funds net sold 2.815 billion Hong Kong dollars today.

In terms of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program, Changfei Optoelectronics Fiber Optic Cable and Guotai Junan International respectively saw a net buying of 6.04 billion Hong Kong dollars and 4.32 billion Hong Kong dollars; Yingfu Fund had the highest net selling amount at 18.89 billion Hong Kong dollars. In terms of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program, Alibaba-W and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) respectively saw a net buying of 13.44 billion Hong Kong dollars and 7.69 billion Hong Kong dollars; Changfei Optoelectronics Fiber Optic Cable had the highest net selling amount at 11.71 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Issued the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses to Anchorage Financial and HSBC Bank.

Today, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Financial Secretary has granted stablecoin issuer licenses to Anchorage Fintech Limited and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, under the Stablecoin Regulations, to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong.

As AI data centers increasingly believe in the power of light, the "optical interconnection + silicon photonics" engine ignites a new bull market for Marvell (MRVL.US).

From the overall data center optical interconnection development trend of OFC 2026, it is becoming increasingly evident that large-scale AI data centers are placing more and more trust in "the power of light".

1.8 billion Hong Kong dollars! Hong Kong SAR government subsidies for fuel costs.

On April 9th, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam chaired a special meeting and accepted the proposal of the "Interdepartmental Supervisory Fuel Supply Task Force" after hearing their report. She announced the launch of a commercial diesel subsidy program totaling approximately HK$1.8 billion to alleviate the impact of the international oil price surge caused by geopolitical factors on Hong Kong's social services. Under this subsidy program, the Hong Kong government will provide a subsidy of HK$3 per liter of diesel for a period of two months. This subsidy will mainly benefit public or commercial vehicles that use diesel as fuel, including trucks, franchised and non-franchised buses, minibuses, as well as ferries, passenger ships, work boats, and fishing boats.

TSMC's cumulative sales from January to March reached NT$1.13 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%.

Lumentum, a leader in optical communication, is expected to have a full order book by 2028, benefiting from the demand for AI.

Lumentum, the leading optical communication company that has received investment from NVIDIA, stated that the demand for its optical communication components from large artificial intelligence data centers in the United States is accelerating, and orders are expected to be filled up until 2028. Lumentum is expanding its production capacity as quickly as possible, but still struggling to meet the demand. Its stock, traded on the Nasdaq, has surged more than 15 times in the past year. CEO Michael Hurlston said in an interview in Tokyo on Friday, "The capital expenditure of large U.S. data centers is very large, and it seems that there is no sign of a peak. Our supply is increasingly unable to keep up with demand. In less than two quarters, all of our orders for full year 2028 will be sold out." Hurlston said that the company is currently making efforts to retrofit existing electronic manufacturing facilities. Compared to building a factory from scratch, the production time of a new factory will be cut in half. He said that Lumentum will invest an additional $100 million in Japan, and this figure may increase to around $250 million.

The first batch of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong will be announced this afternoon.

Reporters have learned that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will announce the first batch of stablecoin licenses on April 10 at 5pm, and licensed stablecoin issuers will meet with the media afterwards. Prior to this, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority had completed the final review of the first batch of applications in mid-March 2026 and is currently in the process of official announcements preparation. The Monetary Authority received a total of 36 applications, with plans to issue 2-3 licenses in the first batch, and the regulatory standards are strict. In early February of this year, Norman Chan, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, stated that he aims to issue the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses in Hong Kong by March this year and emphasized, "The number of licenses issued in the first batch will definitely not be large, with the goal of prudence."

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will hold a technical briefing session for stablecoin issuers at 5pm this afternoon.

Hong Kong Stock Market Midday Update: Hang Seng Index rises 0.61%, Hang Seng Technology Index rises 1.07%

Hong Kong stocks closed at noon, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.61% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 1.07%. In terms of sectors, the semiconductor products and equipment, forestry and paper sectors saw significant gains, while the energy equipment and services, as well as the oil and natural gas sectors, experienced significant losses. In terms of individual stocks, DiPu Technology rose by 51.77%, Tian's BlueChip rose by 11.49%, Zhaoyi Innovation rose by 11.37%, Jinshang Machine China rose by 10.69%, and Citic Securities rose by 10.14%; Baojit Pharm-B fell by 14.39%, Fiberhome Optical Cable fell by 9.9%, Pacgen Biopharmaceuticals-B fell by 8.21%, Zhida Technology fell by 7.85%, and Harbin Electric fell by 7.83%.

"National subsidies" continue! The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funding has been allocated.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, promptly allocated the second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special national bonds to local governments to support the continued smooth and orderly implementation of the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones. Next, relevant departments will continue to guide local governments, reasonably grasp the work pace, optimize and improve the use of funds plan, strengthen fund supervision, standardize subsidy application and fund review, improve subsidy payment efficiency, carry out special rectification for subsidy fraud and abuse, "price increases before subsidy payment", and continue to enhance the effectiveness of policy implementation.

SpaceX performance details revealed: reported revenue exceeded $18.5 billion last year, with a loss of nearly $5 billion.

According to reports, SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion in 2025.

Buffett's first step down! Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) has issued a massive 272.3 billion yen bond after his resignation, continuing to boost confidence in the Japanese market.

Berkshire Hathaway issued 27.23 billion yen in bonds for the first time after Buffett's departure.

The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special national bonds to support consumption goods in exchange for old ones has been allocated recently.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, promptly issued the second batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special national bonds to local governments, in order to support local governments to continue to implement the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones in a stable and orderly manner.

Multi-modal large model HappyHorse developed by Alibaba team

The reporter noticed that the multimodal large model HappyHorse, which has recently sparked heated discussions, has registered an account on overseas social platforms, with Alibaba Group as its first follower. Earlier reports claimed that HappyHorse was developed by a team led by Zhang Di from the Future Life Experiment Lab under Alibaba's Taotian Group. Currently, the Future Life Experiment Lab has become independent from Taotian Group and is now part of the AI Innovation Business Unit under the ATH Business Group. Previously, this anonymous model named HappyHorse-1.0 scored 1332 Elo points and ranked first in the text-to-video competition, surpassing the second place Dreamina Seedance 2.0 by nearly 60 points.

National Bureau of Statistics: in March, the year-on-year increase in PPI was 0.5%, and the increase from the previous month was 1.0%.

On April 10, the National Bureau of Statistics issued a document stating that in March 2026, the year-on-year rise in the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide turned from a 0.9% decrease last month to a 0.5% increase.

The Huawei Pura series press conference is scheduled.

Today, Huawei officially announced on its official Weibo account that the Huawei Pura series and new products for all scenarios will be released at 14:30 on April 20. This means that the Huawei Pura 90 series will officially meet everyone. This year, the release time of the Huawei Pura 90 series has been significantly advanced, bringing users a pleasant surprise. It is reported that the Pura 90 series may have major innovations in design aesthetics and imaging functions.

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Announcement: The list of securities under the Hong Kong Stock Connect will include Zhida Technology, effective from April 10, 2026.

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5 m ago

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has officially launched an investigation into the popular athletic leisure brand Lululemon to verify whether their products contain potentially harmful "permanently chemical substances" to human health, and whether the company has misled consumers on related issues. This investigation was formally initiated by Paxton's office this Monday by issuing a civil investigative demand to Lululemon USA.

7 m ago

IBM paid a settlement fee of 17 million dollars to settle the lawsuit filed by the US Department of Justice's DEI project. According to the settlement agreement, IBM has to pay 17,077,043 dollars, covering civil fines and other fees. IBM did not admit any wrongdoing in the settlement, and the agreement explicitly states: "This agreement does not represent IBM admitting responsibility, nor does it mean that the US government acknowledges that its accusations are unfounded."

8 m ago

Joint statement from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and International Energy Agency: Even if shipping returns to normal, it will take some time for bulk commodity supplies to recover to pre-conflict levels. The impact of this conflict is huge, global, and highly uneven. We will continue to cooperate to address the most serious energy shock in global history.

9 m ago

International Energy Agency Executive Director Birol: We are evaluating whether further reserves need to be released; if necessary, we are ready to take action immediately. The impact of the April war on energy may be more severe than in March, no country can stand alone. I call on all countries to take responsible action.

10 m ago

IMF Managing Director: Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the South Pacific Island countries are currently experiencing the impact of crises related to war. Countries should refrain from "adding fuel to the fire" and avoid taking energy restriction measures that could exacerbate the crisis.

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