GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

20% growth guidance crushes expectations, Applied Materials (AMAT.US) surges in pre-market trading! Wall Street is bullish on the upward cycle for 2027.

On Friday, Applied Materials became the focus of the market, with Wall Street praising its performance guidance.

The month-on-month increase in US CPI in January was lower than expected, and stable labor force trends may cause the Federal Reserve to stand pat.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% from the previous month, slightly lower than the 0.3% increase in December, and also lower than the economists' expected 0.3%. After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in December. In terms of year-on-year data, the CPI increased by 2.4%, slowing down from December's 2.7%, mainly affected by the high base effect from last year; the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than 2.6% in December. The January report for the first time included seasonal adjustment factor updates reflecting price changes by 2025. Economists pointed out that the core CPI data in January often exceed expectations, as the Labor Department's model did not fully account for the one-time price increases at the beginning of the year. This month's increase may also reflect both this early-year effect and the transmission effects of Trump's widespread tariffs. Despite the slowdown in inflation, a stable labor market may keep the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged for a period of time. Economists predict that inflation may rise temporarily during the year, influenced by the transmission of import tariffs and depreciation of the US dollar last year.

Wang Yi meets Rubio at the Chinese Embassy in Munich.

On February 13th local time, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met with US Secretary of State Pompeo in Munich.

Ministry of Finance and seven other departments: science and technology museums and other units can import tax-free popular science equipment and devices.

The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice on the management measures of import tax preferential policies to support the development of popular science during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period. The notice pointed out that the Ministry of Science and Technology, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration of Taxation, and other departments, have formulated a list of duty-free imported goods of popular science equipment and exhibits that cannot be produced domestically or meet the required performance standards. Units such as science museums that benefit from the policy must also meet the conditions of being specifically engaged in public-oriented popular science activities. The notice will be implemented from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2030.

Hong Kong IPO: No Ling Biotech Submits Application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Nanjing Nuoling Biological Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Merchants Securities (International) Co., Ltd. as the exclusive sponsor.

OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil production increases from April.

OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil production increases starting in April. OPEC+ has not yet made a decision, and negotiations will continue before the March 1 meeting.

Hang Seng Index quarterly review results announced: Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750), CMOC Group Limited (03993), and LAOPU GOLD (06181) have been added to the Hang Seng Index, increasing the number of constituent stocks to 90.

On February 13, Hang Seng Indexes Company announced the results of the quarterly review of the Hang Seng Index series as of December 31, 2025.

Eurozone December seasonally adjusted trade surplus was 116 billion euros, up from the previous value of 107 billion euros. Eurozone fourth quarter GDP annual rate revised to 1.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value of 1.3%. Eurozone fourth quarter GDP quarterly rate revised to 0.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value of 0.3%. Eurozone fourth quarter seasonally adjusted employment rate was 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1% and unchanged from the previous value of 0.2%. Eurozone December non-seasonally adjusted trade surplus was 126 billion euros, revised from the previous value of 99 billion euros to 93 billion euros.

Today's southbound capital had a significant net inflow of 20.219 billion yuan. In terms of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Yingfu Fund and Tencent Holdings received net inflows of 2.498 billion Hong Kong dollars and 1.426 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively; Meituan-W had the highest net selling amount of 3.68 billion Hong Kong dollars. In terms of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Yingfu Fund and Alibaba-W received net inflows of 1.178 billion Hong Kong dollars and 1.156 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively; China National Offshore Oil Corporation had the highest net selling amount of 1.44 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Market news: ByteDance is currently in-depth negotiations with Shanghai Mutual Technology for the sale of its gaming division, and the estimated valuation of this transaction may be between 6 billion to 7 billion US dollars.

State Administration of Foreign Exchange: China's current account surplus was 1.7137 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the fourth quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 1.7137 trillion yuan, including a goods trade surplus of 2.1043 trillion yuan, a services trade deficit of 284.5 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 155.2 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 49.1 billion yuan. The capital and financial account deficit was 1.7137 trillion yuan, with net inflows of foreign direct investment to China maintained. In 2025, China's current account surplus was 5.2427 trillion yuan, while the capital and financial account deficit was 5.4217 trillion yuan.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority: The assets of foreign exchange funds increased by HK$71.8 billion to HK$3,597.3 billion in January.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority today released the major analytical accounts of the Exchange Fund as of the end of January 2026. In January, the Fund's foreign assets increased by HK$71.8 billion to HK$3,597.3 billion. The monetary base stood at HK$2,058.7 billion, including certificates of indebtedness, government issued circulating notes and coins, bank system balances, and Exchange Fund bills and bonds issued. The Fund's claims on the Hong Kong private sector totaled HK$386.1 billion. Total external liabilities amounted to HK$63.9 billion.

Google released a major upgrade model DeepThink, in which Tsinghua alumnus Yao Shunyu participated. Practitioners call it "alien intelligence."

On February 13th, Google released a major upgrade to Gemini3DeepThink. As a reasoning mode specifically designed for complex tasks, DeepThink aims to address many challenges in the fields of science and engineering. In multiple benchmark tests, DeepThink set new records, surpassing ClaudeOpus4.6 and GPT-5.2. The model achieved a score of 48.4% in the "Final Exam for Humans" test, and 84.6% in the ARC-AGI-2 test, ranking among the top 8 in global programming ability. Additionally, DeepThink performed exceptionally well in scientific fields such as chemistry and physics, even achieving a gold medal level score in the written part of the 2025 International Physics and Chemistry Olympiad.

Ant Open Source Hybrid Linear Architecture Trillion Parameter Thinking Model Ring-2.5-1T

On February 13th, Ant Group released and open-sourced the first trillion-parameter hybrid linear architecture thinking model, Ring-2.5-1T. According to the introduction, compared to the previously released Ring-1T, Ring-2.5-1T has significantly improved efficiency in generation, depth of thought, and long-range execution. With a generation length exceeding 32K, the memory access scale is reduced by more than 10 times, and generation throughput is increased by more than 3 times.

Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges standardize bond repo transactions to enhance risk disclosure and compliance requirements.

According to industry sources, recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange respectively issued special notices regarding the inaccurate description and insufficient risk warnings in the investor education and publicity work of the general collateralized bond repurchase business, clarifying regulatory requirements and rectification deadlines. It is understood that both notices focus on regulating market behavior and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of investors, with highly consistent regulatory guidance and core requirements. At the same time, they present subtle differences in their respective rule systems, collectively building a compliance framework for the investor education work of the general repurchase business.

New stock information | Haizhou Innovation submits application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the world's largest ACR solution provider.

The prospectus shows that Haizhou Innovation is a global leader in the field of warehouse automation, focusing on the automation of picking, which is the most labor-intensive and time-consuming activity in warehouses.

In January, the national railway completed fixed asset investments of 46.3 billion yuan.

In January 2026, the construction of railways was carried out efficiently and effectively, with a total fixed asset investment of 46.3 billion yuan in the national railway system, an increase of 5.5% compared to the previous year. This played a key role in driving investment in the overall society and achieved a good start for the year.

YouTube application logs into Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and completes the puzzle of the ecological system with Vision Pro Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US).

When Apple (AAPL.US) introduced the Vision Pro headset in early 2024, the global leading head-mounted application YouTube was surprisingly absent for a long time. Nearly two years later, Google (GOOGL.US) finally launched the visionOS version of the YouTube application.

Spot gold breaks through $4970 per ounce, up 1.00% on the day.

Bank of America: Washington version of "fiscal policy" may not stir up much of a storm, interest rate market impact negligible.

Bank of America strategist pointed out that Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chairman, called for a new agreement with the Treasury Department, but given that the two institutions have already maintained close cooperation, this move is unlikely to have a substantial impact on bond prices.

The balance of financing in both markets increased by 1.418 billion yuan compared to the previous day.

As of February 12, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reported a margin balance of 1.330448 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.502 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reported a margin balance of 1.290149 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.084 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the total margin balance of the two exchanges was 2.620597 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.418 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

AI computing power and storage demand exceed expectations, semiconductor equipment welcomes a super cycle! Applied Materials' performance outlook crushes expectations.

In after-hours trading on the US stock market, the stock price of Applied Materials surged more than 14% at one point, mainly because the company provided unexpectedly strong revenue forecast range.

U.S. stock market's three major stock indexes close down, with Apple falling more than 5%.

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.33%, the Nasdaq falling 2.02%, and the S&P 500 falling 1.57%. Nvidia fell more than 1%, Apple fell more than 5%, Google and Microsoft slightly declined, Amazon fell more than 2%, Broadcom fell more than 3%, Tesla fell more than 2%, and Cisco fell more than 12%.

International oil prices fell on the 12th.

International oil prices fell on the 12th. As of the close of that day, the light crude oil futures price for delivery in March on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.79 to $62.84 per barrel, a decrease of 2.77%; the Brent crude oil futures price for delivery in April in London fell by $1.88 to $67.52 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%.

Evaluate potential investment risks. Denmark's second largest pension fund considers reducing its exposure to the US.

Denmark's second largest pension fund, ATP, stated that it may need to reduce its exposure to the private equity market in the United States due to potential investment risks. CEO Martin Prstegaard, in an interview, said that the $112 billion asset management company is currently conducting a full assessment of the US political system. He mentioned that the US has performed well for many years, but the question is whether that will continue. He also stated that even if they were to withdraw from the US market, it would be done gradually. ATP's private equity portfolio, as of the end of December, was approximately 113 billion Danish Krone and heavily invested in the US, including investments in private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.

Google: Today announced the major upgrade of Gemini 3 Deep Thought. Working closely with scientists and researchers to launch an upgraded version of Gemini 3 Deep Thought model to address research challenges.

US Stock Market Move | Boeing Company(BA.US) rose more than 3%, planning to increase the production capacity of the 737 series aircraft in the coming years.

On Thursday, Boeing (BA.US) rose more than 3% to $245.03.

Performance exceeding expectations boosts market confidence Ferrari NV (RACE.US) shakes off the last "sell" rating.

After announcing better-than-expected performance this week, Ferrari finally rid itself of the last "sell" rating in the market.

Several places have issued documents before the holiday demanding that food delivery platforms stop "self-destructive" competition: they must not continue to subsidize in order to increase market share as the highest goal.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, many local market supervision departments across the country have issued guidelines for the Spring Festival takeaway market, warning relevant takeaway platforms to engage in rational competition. Among them, cities such as Xinyang and Nanyang in Henan, Bengbu in Anhui, Shantou in Guangdong, Wenchang in Hainan, and Liaoyang in Liaoning require takeaway platforms to immediately cease low-quality and low-price "internal competition" and refrain from organizing vicious subsidies and price dumping to ensure stability in the Spring Festival takeaway market.

Suzhou Pilot Biotechnology Co., Ltd. submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

According to documents from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Suzhou Piloting Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: Total assets of the banking and insurance industry in China continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission disclosed the data on the major regulatory indicators for the banking and insurance industries in the fourth quarter of 2025.

China Banking Regulatory Commission: Overall, commercial banks have sufficient risk coverage capabilities.

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission released the data on the key regulatory indicators of the banking and insurance industries for the fourth quarter of 2025. In the entire year of 2025, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 2.4 trillion yuan. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the average capital profit rate was 7.78%, and the average asset profit rate was 0.60%. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the commercial banks' loan loss reserves balance was 7.2 trillion yuan; the provision coverage ratio was 205.21%, and the loan provision ratio was 3.07%. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks was 15.46%, the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 12.37%, and the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.92%.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on five mandatory national standards, including "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicles and Autonomous Driving Systems".

In accordance with the "Standardization Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Administrative Measures for Mandatory National Standards Management", the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee to carry out the revision of five mandatory national standards including "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicles and Automated Driving Systems". The draft for soliciting opinions has been formed and is now publicly soliciting opinions from all sectors of society.

Sanofi (SNY.US) Suddenly Changes Leadership: Research and Development Goes From Dead End to Life Saver, Merck Executive Takes Over-Requested!

Sanofi (SNY.US) suddenly announced on February 12 that CEO Paul Hudson was dismissed and will be replaced by Merck Group executive Bren Garcey.

New stock prospect | Can Puchi Pharmaceuticals support a valuation of 2.4 billion as a leader in targeted therapy for local delivery?

Recently, another biopharmaceutical company has submitted its listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The central bank: As of the end of the fourth quarter, a total of 15.556 billion bank accounts have been opened nationwide.

The People's Bank of China released the overall situation of the payment system operation in the fourth quarter of 2025. By the end of the fourth quarter, a total of 1.556 billion bank accounts had been opened nationwide. There were 120 million unit bank accounts opened, of which 83.3212 million were basic deposit accounts; and 1.5436 billion individual bank accounts opened. In the fourth quarter, banks nationwide processed a total of 176.381 billion non-cash payment transactions, with a total amount of 155.290 trillion yuan. In the fourth quarter, a total of 172.936 billion bank card transactions occurred nationwide, with a total amount of 244.19 trillion yuan. This included 784 million cash deposit transactions, with an amount of 6.54 trillion yuan; 1.307 billion cash withdrawal transactions, with an amount of 6.85 trillion yuan; 63.173 billion transfer transactions, with an amount of 196.74 trillion yuan; and 1.07672 billion consumption transactions, with an amount of 34.06 trillion yuan.

HK Stocks Close: Hang Seng Index drops 0.858%, Hang Seng Technology Index drops 1.655%

NetEase-S fell 3.590%, Haidilao fell 3.603%, Trip.com Group-S fell 3.989%, Meituan-W fell 4.502%, Lenovo Group fell 4.666%, Kingdee International fell 4.979%, and Budweiser Asia Pacific fell 5.569%.

Korean investors increase their investment in the Hong Kong stock market and the technology sector is in demand. They are buying up shares of MINIMAX-WP (00100) and INNOSCIENCE (02577).

South Korean investors' enthusiasm for investing in Chinese assets is gradually increasing.

The Ministry of Commerce responds to the Canadian canola seed issue: Will fully consider Canada's reasonable demands within the regulatory framework.

On February 12, the Ministry of Commerce held its regular press conference. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Geng Shuang answered questions regarding the anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed. He said that during Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau's visit to China in January, China and Canada made specific arrangements to properly resolve trade issues in areas such as electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, rapeseed, and agricultural products. Canada will actively adjust unilateral measures taken against Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products. China will also adjust its measures against Canada in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. "Regarding the anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, given the complexity of the case, the investigation period has been extended until March 9, 2026. The Ministry of Commerce will issue an arbitration announcement before that date, fully considering Canada's reasonable claims within the framework of the rules, and make an objective and fair final ruling based on facts and evidence," he said.

Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 9 of 2026: Final Decision on Anti-subsidy Investigation of Imported Dairy Products from the European Union.

According to Article 39 of the Anti-subsidy Regulation, the Ministry of Commerce proposed to the Tariff Commission of the State Council to impose anti-subsidy duties on imported dairy products originating from the EU. The Tariff Commission of the State Council made a decision based on the proposal of the Ministry of Commerce, and starting from February 13, 2026, anti-subsidy duties will be imposed on imported dairy products originating from the EU.

Ministry of Commerce: China and the United States maintain close communication at all levels through the mechanism of economic and trade consultations.

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, Gao Yan, stated that the economic and trade teams of China and the US have maintained close communication at all levels through the mechanism of economic and trade negotiations, exchanging views in a timely manner on implementing the consensus reached at the G20 Buenos Aires summit between the leaders of the two countries, as well as the achievements of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade negotiations, and addressing each other's concerns in the economic and trade fields.

Report: Samsung has started mass production and commercial shipment of HBM4 chips.

Samsung Electronics has announced that it has begun mass production of the industry's first HBM4 chip and has already delivered commercial products to customers. This is a major breakthrough for the South Korean chip giant, marking a key milestone in its competition to sell high-end semiconductors needed for generative artificial intelligence. Samsung said in a statement on Thursday that commercial products have been delivered to customers, but did not disclose the specific customers. The company stated that samples of HBM4E are expected to be available in the second half of 2026, while custom HBM samples will be delivered to customers starting in 2027. The statement also mentioned that the "total memory bandwidth per stack has increased 2.7 times compared to the previous generation product" using the new HBM4 chip.

Closing comments: The ChiNext Index opened high and closed high, rising by 1.32%. Liquid-cooled servers, data centers, and other AI computing power sectors led the gains.

The three major indexes of A-shares collectively rose today. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.86%, the Growth Enterprise Index rose by 1.32%, and the Beishare 50 Index rose by 0.5%. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.1608 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 2100 individual stocks rising. In terms of sector themes, the top gainers were power equipment, liquid-cooled servers, CPO, optical fibers, semiconductors, minor metals, computing power leasing, and rare earth permanent magnet sectors; while the top decliners were in the film and television industry, tourism and hotels, retail, liquor, food processing, airport transportation, and pork sectors. On the market, Vertiv surged by 24% overnight, the liquid-cooled server sector collectively surged, and stocks like Inovance Tech and Dayuan Pump Industry hit the limit up. Stimulated by the news of price increases for products from YOFC, stocks related to computing power leasing collectively strengthened, with YOFC, Capital Online, and DaWeitech hitting the limit. The electricity network equipment sector remains active, with Sinyuan Electric and Sifang Holdings hitting new highs during the session. Overall, the market focus is on the construction of AI infrastructure. On the other hand, the film and television industry sector continued to adjust today, with Hengdian Film and Bona Film Industry hitting the limit down. Retail, food and beverage, and tourism stocks also performed poorly, with Haixin Food hitting the limit down, and Dongbai Group and Hangzhou Xiabailing leading the decline.

Apollo Asset Management: The software industry has entered a "fierce technological cycle", and valuation logic is facing a historic reset.

Apollo Asset Management Company warned that the software industry is entering the early stages of an "extremely violent technological cycle" driven by the disruptive power of artificial intelligence.

Liu Deshun, National Energy Administration: Major global economies are actively deploying hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, and must strengthen original and disruptive innovation with greater intensity.

In a message from the National Energy Administration's official WeChat account, Liu Deshun, chief engineer of the National Energy Administration and director of the Energy Conservation and Technology Equipment Department, stated that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's energy technology innovation is facing a complex situation of both opportunities and challenges, with intensifying competition. From a global perspective, it can be seen that: firstly, green and low-carbon energy is the main direction of energy technology innovation. Supporting the development and improvement of new energy through technological innovation is crucial, with a key focus on solving the challenges of intermittent and fluctuating new energy integration into the power system for safety and stability. Secondly, the momentum of innovation in frontier technologies for future energy is continuously increasing. Major economies around the world are actively deploying in areas such as hydrogen energy and controlled nuclear fusion, with technological innovation accelerating iteration and continuously driving the emergence of new energy industries, new business models, and new patterns. Thirdly, explosive growth in artificial intelligence has become a new variable reshaping the global energy competition landscape. Artificial intelligence and the energy industry are mutually empowering, with integrated innovation accelerating and driving transformation in the entire chain of energy production, transmission, and consumption. In the new situation, we must strengthen original and disruptive innovation with greater effort, accelerate breakthroughs in key areas and core technologies, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, in order to firmly grasp the initiative of energy technology development in our own hands, and win strategic initiative in international competition amidst the interweaving of technological revolutions and great power games.

The Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 1%, now at 5444.690 points; the Hang Seng Index is currently down 0.336%.

The Nikkei Stock Average index reached 58,000 points for the first time.

The Nikkei 225 index saw its gains widen, rising by 0.6% at one point to reach 58004.72 points, hitting a new historical high during trading hours.

"AI+ digital advertising" hegemon Applovin (APP.US) smashes the "software stock doomsday theory"! AI dividend is branded into performance, Q4 net profit surges by 84%

Applovin's strong performance proves that the market discourse about the "Software Stock Doomsday" triggered by the rise of agent-type AI intelligent bodies from Anthropic is greatly exaggerated and purely driven by fear.

Overnight US stocks | Three major indexes closed slightly lower, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose nearly 10%.

As of the close, the Dow fell 66.74 points, a decrease of 0.13%, to 50121.40 points; the Nasdaq fell 36.01 points, a decrease of 0.16%, to 23066.47 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.34 points, a decrease of 0.01%, to 6941.45 points.

"AI-driven trading losses" spread, causing a collective drop in US real estate service stocks.

On Wednesday, American real estate service stocks collectively plunged, as investors worried that the high labor costs and high transaction fees of related companies could become "victims" of a new wave of AI impact.

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8 m ago

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.1%, the Nasdaq fell 0.22%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.05%. Among the top trading stocks, Nvidia fell 2.21%, Tesla rose 0.09%, SanDisk fell 0.59%, and Apple fell 2.27%.

11 m ago

CFTC data shows that speculators have increased their short positions on the dollar to the highest level since June.

12 m ago

The US dollar index fell slightly on the 13th.

20 m ago

Market News: Trump is considering nominating Treasury Department official Heerly as the US Ambassador to Germany.

20 m ago

Federal Reserve: US bank deposits were $18.719 trillion last week, up from $18.645 trillion the week before.

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