GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

From "Token competition" to "Token throttling": Average monthly costs reach $7500 per person, astronomical bills force giants to collectively hit the brakes.

Businesses have shifted their AI spending from "extreme consumption" to "extreme conservation," with industry giants setting limits on AI usage and intelligent tools to deal with rising cost pressures. This budget control trend has sparked a debate among companies between cost control and productivity, while also bringing a windfall to infrastructure providers like Microsoft and Databricks that offer cost optimization, gateway tools, and model routers.

AI godfather warns: Musk's xAI has "failed", AI industry may face a "big bubble burst"

Yann LeCun, known as the "Godfather of AI", openly criticized Musk's xAI, calling it a "failure", and warned the entire AI industry that if costs are not reduced and pricing is not increased soon, it could face the risk of a "massive bubble burst".

"Dollar rebound ends emerging market currency bull market, hottest forex trading of the year cools rapidly"

The new head of the Federal Reserve made his debut by being hawkish, completely shattering expectations of an interest rate cut and causing a massive upheaval in the global currency market. The US dollar rebounded strongly, with a surge in buying options across the market. As a result of this impact, emerging markets that were popular for "carry trade" are facing collective liquidation, with funds accelerating their return. In the short term, the strong US dollar has once again dominated the global capital landscape.

Energy costs increase inflationary pressure! South Korea's Producer Price Index (PPI) in May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, reaching a near four-year high.

The double-wheel drive of energy shocks and semiconductor prosperity has led to sustained "explosive" inflation in South Korea's upstream. As the price hikes spread to the consumer end, the internal consensus of the "hawkish" faction within the Bank of Korea is rapidly expanding. A storm of interest rate hikes may be brewing, and investors need to be highly vigilant of the risks of policy tightening.

Washington releases hawk, U.S. dollar "turning point" is here?

Wash releases a strong hawkish signal, causing the market to quickly reassess the outlook for the US dollar: the US dollar index sees its largest two-day gain in three months, with a surge in large-scale bets on the dollar in the options market. Traders begin betting on the Federal Reserve raising rates as soon as July, increasing the attractiveness of US dollar assets, while major currencies such as the euro and yen are under pressure across the board.

When will the large-scale models in China reach the level of Fable? Musk predicts by the first quarter of next year, Tang Jie says it won't take that long.

With the release of GLM-5.2 and the previous top models of Anthropic being banned by US export controls, a public debate about the "race against time" for large models between China and the United States has erupted on overseas social media platforms. This has even attracted the participation of the world's richest man, Musk, and the founder of Zhipu, Tang Jie.

The yen falls to a nearly 40-year low, with the finance minister reiterating "bold action will be taken."

The Japanese yen has fallen to a near 40-year low, and although the Japanese government frequently issues verbal warnings and has thrown more than 70 billion USD to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it still struggles against the structural pressure brought by the high interest rate differential between the US and Japan, arbitrage trading, and reinflationary policies. The market is betting that the Tokyo authorities may suddenly intervene to rescue the currency, but analysts believe that as long as the high interest rates in the US remain, it will be difficult for the weakness of the yen to fundamentally reverse.

Wash "hawkish debut", Goldman Sachs downgrades gold target price, "if interest rates really rise this year, the price of gold will further decline."

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold target price for 2026 to $4900, and has recently adopted a "tactically cautious" stance. The report warns that if there are two rate hikes in the fall, the price of gold could fall to $4440. However, the strong structural trend of central banks globally buying gold provides core support, and mid-term geopolitical risks could drive the price of gold to surpass $6000.

Hong Kong student dormitory operator Student Living EduVation (SDLV.US) raises fundraising target to $31 million IPO price $4-6 per share.

Student Living EduVation (SDLV.US) increased its IPO issuance size on Thursday.

The U.S.-Iran talks on Friday were cancelled, international oil prices rebounded slightly, and gold prices fell by 2%.

The US-Iran talks scheduled to take place at the Burgenstock Resort in Switzerland on Friday will be cancelled.

Interest rate futures trading "four times unusual"! Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month?

According to the latest data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Thursday, as bond traders aggressively shorted bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the next meeting, trading volume in August federal funds rate futures spiked. Over 500,000 contracts changed hands on Wednesday, with trading volume soaring to about four times the 20-day average.

Has the market overreacted to the oil price falling back to "pre-Iraq war levels"?

Brent crude oil fell below $77 per barrel this week, almost wiping out all geopolitical premiums since the outbreak of the Iran war, hitting the lowest level since the start of the conflict.

One picture understanding the Hong Kong Stock Exchange IPO of LB Pharmaceuticals (09637)

Hong Kong stock "the first stock of innovative drugs for kidney disease" LifeBond Medicine (09637) has introduced 11 top cornerstone investors, creating the strongest lineup in the Hong Kong stock 18A market in recent years.

China-Iran agreement sparks optimism, Asian stock markets approach historical highs.

Asian stock markets are approaching historical highs.

CME Group (CME.US) filed a lawsuit against CFTC accusing it of improperly approving perpetual futures trading.

The core dispute of this legal action lies in the regulatory compliance of perpetual futures contracts for cryptocurrency. CME accuses Selig of unilaterally approving perpetual futures contracts tied to the Bitcoin spot price without full committee review.

American Five Agencies Jointly Issue New Regulation: Stablecoin Issuers Must Verify User Identity Like Banks.

The financial regulatory landscape in the United States is at a critical turning point as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the National Credit Union Administration, and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network under the Department of Treasury jointly proposed a major new regulation on Thursday.

The Japanese yen nears a 40-year low! Japan's Finance Minister once again proposes "bold action" and issues a warning against speculation trading.

Kazuki Katayama expressed on Friday that, due to the Japanese yen exchange rate nearing its lowest level in the past forty years, the government can take bold actions to address speculative behaviors.

IPO landed quickly and is planning to refinance! SpaceX intends to issue at least $20 billion in bonds, and its stock price has experienced a roller coaster.

SpaceX's investment banking team at SPCX.US will hold a conference call with investors as soon as next week to discuss the issuance of bonds after the company's record-breaking IPO.

US Treasury Department: In April, overseas purchases of US securities amounted to $103 billion, while holdings of US bonds increased by $3.9 billion. China's holdings of US bonds hit a new low since 2008.

The U.S. Treasury Department said in its monthly International Capital (TIC) report released on Thursday that foreign investors are estimated to have purchased $103 billion in U.S. long-term securities in April; at the same time, their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds increased by $3.9 billion. In March, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply by over $138 billion.

Wall Street expects long-term interest rates to climb higher again. The 30-year Treasury bond yield is expected to return to 5% by the end of the year.

After the Federal Reserve's newly appointed chairman, Jerome Powell, released a hawkish signal at the first monetary policy meeting, concerns in the market about the outlook for long-term interest rates in the United States have increased.

HK Bull/Bear Outstanding Qty Ratio(60:40) | June 19th

As of June 19, the latest bull-bear street ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 60:40.

Bitcoin continues to weaken! The funding model of Strategy (MSTR.US) is questioned by the market, with preferred shares plummeting to a new low since listing.

The price of Bitcoin continues to weaken, market analysis believes that the recent decline is not only affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but also related to the pressure faced by Strategy, the world's largest enterprise-level Bitcoin holder, in its financing model. Investors are starting to worry about its ability to continue buying Bitcoin.

Meta (META.US) signs contract with Crusoe to purchase 1.6GW of data center computing power, further increasing investment in AI infrastructure.

Meta Platforms has reached a new partnership agreement with data center developer Crusoe, to obtain large-scale artificial intelligence computing resources from the latter's construction of multiple data centers, in order to support the company's continued expansion of its AI strategy.

Overnight US stocks | Three major indexes rebound sharply, with Nasdaq rising more than 1.9%. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) rose more than 10%.

As of the close, the Dow rose 72.71 points, or 0.14%, to 51,565.26 points; the Nasdaq rose 496.27 points, or 1.91%, to 26,517.93 points; the S&P 500 rose 80.48 points, or 1.08%, to 7,500.58 points.

US Stock Market Move | First Carolina Financial Service (FCBM.US) debuts in the US stock market with an opening price surge of over 4%.

First Carolina Financial Service entered the US stock market, with the opening price rising more than 4%, reaching $13.

US Stock Market Move | Cardigan (KARD.US) enters the US stock market, opening with a more than 25% increase.

Cardigan made its debut in the US stock market, with its stock price jumping over 25% at the opening, reaching $20.1.

The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve boosts bullish confidence, and the US dollar strengthens for the second consecutive trading day.

After the Federal Reserve released a clear hawkish signal, the dollar strengthened for a second consecutive trading day and further approached the phase high reached at the end of March.

US Stock Market Move | "The 'American Retail Investors Headquarters' Robinhood (HOOD.US) rose nearly 4%, with a cumulative increase of 56% since April."

On Thursday, "American retail investor headquarters" Robinhood (HOOD.US) once again surged by nearly 4% in the intraday session, with a cumulative increase of 56% since April, now trading at $108.44.

Challenge NVIDIA Corporation's dominance! Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) plans to sell self-developed AI chips to external data centers, causing the stock price to rise by over 2%.

Amazon is considering selling its self-developed artificial intelligence chips to data centers of other companies, signaling an important step the company is taking in challenging Nvidia's dominant position in the AI chip market.

A-share evening hotspots | Eight departments deploy! AI+ consumption welcomes heavy positive news, institutions sort out beneficiary directions.

On June 18th, the Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments released the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of "Artificial Intelligence + Consumption".

US Stock Market Move | Oil stocks fall, Apache Corporation (APA.US) falls more than 3%.

On Thursday, oil stocks fell across the board.

US Stock Market Move | Nuclear energy company Deep Fission (FISN.US) received a warm welcome on its first day of trading, with its stock price triggering a circuit breaker at one point.

Deep Fission debuts on the US stock market, with the stock price rising after opening. It reaches a high of $18.8 and briefly triggers a circuit breaker.

US Stock Market Move | Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US) surges nearly 5%, "Grand Theft Auto VI" preorder is about to open.

On Thursday, Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US) opened higher, with a peak increase of nearly 5% during trading hours.

US Stock Market Move | Concept stocks related to optical communication are generally up. Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL.US) rose more than 9%.

On Thursday, the concept stocks of optical communications surged.

US Stock Market Move | "Reached a solid-state battery technology cooperation agreement with Honda, QuantumScape (QS.US) rose more than 6%."

On Thursday, QuantumScape (QS.US) opened with a sharp increase of over 13%, but as of the time of writing, the gain narrowed to 6%, trading at $7.33 per share.

US Stock Market Move | Successive winning of large long-term contracts, Bloom Energy (BE.US) surged over 8.8%.

As of the time of submission, the stock has risen more than 8.8%, reaching $310.236.

US Stock Market Move | Accenture Plc Class A's performance guidance falls below expectations leading to a crash in IT service stocks. IBM (IBM.US) drops by more than 6%.

On Thursday, IBM (IBM.US) continued to fall at the opening, down 6.33% at the time of writing.

US Stock Market Move | Space concept stocks took a hit, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) dropped more than 9%.

On Thursday, the space industry concept suffered a universal decline.

US Stock Market Move | Q4 revenue guidance lower than expected, Accenture Plc Class A (ACN.US) opens trading with a sharp drop of over 17%.

On Thursday, Accenture (ACN.US) opened with a sharp drop of over 17%, marking its largest single-day decline in history and a decrease of over 50% for the year.

Apple Inc. ignites "domestic chip outsourcing" deal! Intel Corporation (INTC.US) rises from abandoning AI to becoming a "national-level computing power base"

With the explosion of CPU demand in the era of AI reasoning, coupled with the Trump administration's semiconductor reshoring policy and the increasingly strong chip demand from big clients such as Apple and Nvidia, Intel has once again embarked on a new round of AI super bullish trajectory driven by "chip foundry + data center CPU."

US Stock Market Move | Storage concept stocks are performing strongly. Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) surged by nearly 10%.

On Thursday, the storage concept stocks in the US were strong, with Western Digital (WDC.US) soaring nearly 10%.

New Stock News | Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. (688036.SH) submits second listing application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

According to the disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 18th, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. (referred to as Transsion Holdings (688036.SH)) has submitted an application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as its exclusive sponsor.

New Stock News | Figures Show that Hong Kong Stock Exchange is Ranked Third in the Chinese Enterprise-Level Large Model Commercial Growth Market

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed on June 18, Stories Numbers Company Limited (referred to as: Stories Numbers) submitted its application to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities International as its sole sponsor.

US Stock Market Move | SpaceX(SPCX.US) opened with a drop of more than 5%, falling a total of 10% over the last two days.

On Thursday, SpaceX (SPCX.US) quickly weakened after opening and dropped more than 5%, with a cumulative drop of 10% in two days. Prior to this, it had risen more than 40% in the first four trading days after its initial public offering.

Goldman Sachs Interprets Powell's "Hawkish Debut": Two-year US Treasury bond volatility may soar again, long end welcomes a calm window

Goldman Sachs pointed out that after Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve, his remarks are likely to exacerbate the volatility of short-term US Treasury bonds, but at the same time, they could help stabilize the price fluctuations of long-term bonds.

Bank of France releases global allocation strategy: bullish on Chinese assets and US industrial stocks, shifting towards value and commodities.

Orient Securities' Global Allocation Strategy: Betting on Central Bank "Action Lag", Infrastructure and AI Capital Expenditure, suggesting to long value stocks.

US Stock Market Move | Intel Corporation's (INTC.US) stock soared more than 10% at the opening bell as they announced a collaboration with Apple Inc. to produce chips in the United States.

On Thursday, Intel (INTC.US) opened significantly higher by over 10%. Since the beginning of April, the stock has risen noticeably, with a increase of over 200%.

The Trump administration splurged $725 million to support the rare earth processing industry, causing Energy Fuels(UUUU.US)to rise more than 10%.

The Trump administration has announced that it has signed a conditional loan commitment worth $725 million aimed at expanding Energy Fuels' rare earth processing business domestically.

US stocks at the opening: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 4.6%

Semiconductor stocks rose, with Micron Technology up about 6% and AMD up about 4%. The optoelectronics sector rose, with Lumentum Holdings up about 5%. SpaceX fell about 2%, after dropping nearly 5% in the previous trading day.

US stocks open: the three major stock indexes rise together.

The Dow rose 0.85%, the S&P 500 rose 1.20%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.50%. Western Digital rose 8.85%, Intel rose 8.81%, Arm Holdings rose 6.61%, and Seagate rose 6.56%. Among the "Seven Sisters": Nvidia rose 1.46%, Meta Platforms rose 1.31%, Apple rose 1.14%, Amazon rose 0.95%, Google rose 0.84%, Tesla rose 0.36%, and Microsoft rose 0.10%.

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