GMT EIGHT - OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Bernstein senior analyst: This is the first true "chip super cycle" in my career, "bottleneck" is the wealth building machine.

Bernstein star analyst Stacy Rasgon pointed out that the semiconductor industry is experiencing an unprecedented "super cycle", with Broadcom's custom ASIC and NVIDIA's GPU expected to coexist for the long term to meet increasing demand. The biggest "bottleneck" lies in electricity, as the United States' power grid would need to grow by 5% annually if infrastructure investment, predicted to be in the range of 3-4 trillion dollars per year by NVIDIA, were to be implemented. This is a nearly impossible task for the power industry.

"The Big Short" Chanos: There is a huge "financial mismatch" in the current AI industry chain, "AI Cloud" is actually a leasing intermediary, bearish on SpaceX.

Wall Street legend Chanos warns that chip makers confirm revenue immediately while cloud companies capitalize spending, leading to a delayed depreciation effect that will repeat the historical 40% profit drop in 2001; the essence of hashpower leasing is a single-digit return financial business. Regarding SpaceX, Chanos believes that its launch business continues to lose money, and space data centers face fatal constraints such as heat dissipation, radiation, and maintenance costs, making it difficult to support a valuation of nearly 2 trillion.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: After a short-term rebound, A shares may fluctuate. AI computing power remains the main trend in the medium to long term.

The market is experiencing a strong short-term rebound, but after the rebound is completed, A-shares may enter a period of volatility. AI computing power is expected to continue to perform well as a core theme in this round of bull market in the long term. Domestic policy dividends such as the Lujiazui Financial Forum are expected to continue to drive the rise of the "Double Innovation" sector, and it is expected that the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and the Science and Technology Innovation Board will continue to remain strong.

"A-shares' "K-shaped differentiation" reaches extreme values since 2009! Guotai Junan Securities strategy: Stemming from economic and policy consensus, prosperity remains the core of pricing."

How to deal with the current differentiation? On one hand, the marginal tightening of global macro liquidity this year is further accelerating the shift in the main contradiction of market pricing from valuation to earnings. On the other hand, as the July performance disclosure period approaches and the effectiveness of economic investment improves, the market's emphasis on performance will also be strengthened.

Broad strategy directly hits the market "irreconcilable differences": is the high PB of technology stocks a bubble or pricing power? The lesson of the 1990s technology bubble.

From an objective data perspective, the current industry valuation differentiation level, as measured by the standard deviation or difference between the maximum and minimum values of industry PB historical percentiles, has reached near historical highs. Importantly, extreme valuation differentiation is not a necessary condition for the market to turn bearish.

British political earthquake imminent? Prime Minister Stammer may announce resignation on Monday, UK bond rates price in regime change

British Prime Minister Starmar's political life enters the final countdown. Former Mayor of Greater Manchester Burnham won a by-election to enter the House of Commons with an overwhelming advantage, with his supporters claiming the backing of more than 201 Labour MPs, exceeding half of the party's group. Cabinet members and unions have successively switched sides, and the UK's 10-year bond yield has surged to 4.84%. Starmar may announce his resignation timetable as early as Monday, going from overwhelming victory to being forced to step down in less than two years.

Hong Kong stock market is a real-time scoreboard for the Renminbi and US Dollar.

Shanghai Lujiazui and the Federal Reserve of Washington synchronously appeared -- Pan Gongsheng released intensive policy signals, and Sci-Tech 50 soared by 4.69% in a single day; Powell used the shortest 130-word declaration to declare the debut of the hawkish faction, and the three major US stock indexes collectively fell. While actively managing expectations, he deliberately withdraws signals; while opening up financing channels for AI companies, he also questions whether AI will rewrite monetary rules. Hong Kong stocks are the real-time scoreboard of this currency confidence game.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision may reduce risks, A-share market may still move forward in inertia.

The unextrapolable expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike have not disrupted the market's existing inertia, and A-shares continue to move forward along the market characteristics since May.

From the 800V ultimate architecture to the trillion-dollar market: SST solid-state transformer commercialization on the eve of the industry chain is "ready to go".

Since 2026, there have been constant advancements in SST solid state transformers, forming a strong global consensus on the trend of SST. The SST industry chain opportunities will resonate positively.

The Federal Reserve has no hope of cutting interest rates this year! Goldman Sachs slashes gold target price, long-term bullish sentiment turns cautious.

Goldman Sachs recently lowered its year-end gold price forecast for 2026 by $500 per ounce, as the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates again this year.

As enterprises start "reducing the cost of computing power," Goldman Sachs warns that the AI capital expenditure of 5.3 trillion is approaching credit saturation!

The enterprise side has begun to hit the brakes. Companies like Uber and Walmart are limiting the use of AI, switching from a subscription-based billing model to a per-word charge, causing a sudden increase in cost pressure.

Cui Dongshu: Total sales volume of the car market in May under pressure, structural differentiation, strong dominance of new energy, export growth against the trend.

The core features of the May automobile market are the collapse of domestic sales of fuel vehicles, the strong dominance of new energy vehicles, and the increase in exports against the trend.

"Wash debut" is a "once-in-a-decade turning point"? Nomura: Beware of "precautionary rate hikes" evolving into "substantive tightening"

Nomura Securities Chief Macro Strategist Matsuzawa pointed out that the market is severely underestimating the long-term risks of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. He warned that the upcoming FOMC meeting may mark the beginning of the end of the credit cycle prosperity driven by artificial intelligence.

Huachuang Securities: The threshold for raising interest rates is still relatively high, and the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged this year.

Huachuang Securities still takes a wait-and-see attitude towards the Fed's rate hike this year. The difficulty of implementing a rate hike is very high, and they are more inclined to believe that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged this year. The threshold for a rate hike remains high.

Musk takes down a sky-high salary of 780 billion yuan, which can be realized in 2028

Recently, Tesla's filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission showed that CEO Elon Musk cashed in on his 2018 compensation plan on June 16. Musk thus netted about 2.86 billion Tesla shares, with a book profit of $116 billion. The filing showed that Musk exercised 3.04 billion stock options at a split-adjusted exercise price of $23.34 per share. On June 16, Tesla's closing price was $404.66 per share, resulting in a price difference of $381.32 per share and a single transaction book profit of about $116 billion. According to the terms of the implementation agreement, this exercise is settled on a "net basis," with Tesla withholding 17.53 million shares to offset the exercise cost, equivalent to Musk netting about 2.86 billion shares. It is worth noting that the above shares are restricted stock and must meet the service duration requirement. Musk is expected to be able to sell this batch of shares in 2028.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: The rise of domestic models surpasses multimodal scenarios, focusing on high-growth areas such as computing power, cloud industry, etc.

Domestic large models have entered a period of intense outbreak, with high-level capabilities converging and advancing the global first echelon. The enhanced capabilities of large models increase penetration rate and drive Token index-level growth.

British Prime Minister Stammer plans to resign on Monday and arrange for a orderly transition.

The UK Observer reported on Saturday that Prime Minister Stammer is expected to announce his resignation on Monday and disclose a timetable for leaving office. The report stated that Stammer, after consulting with cabinet ministers, advisors, party donors, and union leaders, has concluded that he is no longer able to continue in the role of Prime Minister. The report indicated that Stammer is currently discussing this matter with his wife at the Chequers countryside residence, and will make a final decision after the discussion is finished; senior Labour Party officials generally expect that he will make a clear statement about his future on Monday at the earliest.

In 2026, the box office of the new film released during the Dragon Boat Festival period exceeded 200 million yuan.

In 2026, the total box office revenue of the new films released during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday exceeded 200 million yuan, including advance screenings and pre-sales.

Cui Dongshu: China's automobile exports increased by 50% from January to May, while exports of fuel motorcycles slowed down due to high fuel prices.

China's automobile exports reached $73.6 billion in the first five months of 2026, an increase of 50%. In May, automobile exports were $16.7 billion, representing a 39% increase. The Chinese automobile industry is showing strong vitality.

"The tightest bottleneck in AI!" The impact of storage has expanded to the macro economy, exacerbating overall inflation.

Deutsche Bank believes that the structural demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI is crazily crowding out traditional capacity, and the supply gap is difficult to close before 2027. Soaring storage costs have spread to end markets such as consumer electronics and automobiles, pushing up overall inflation. The year-on-year increase in the U.S. electronic producer price index reached 26.9%, and the storage crisis is evolving from a chip industry issue to a key macroeconomic variable.

Compared to open source models, cutting-edge models are like luxury handbags! Deutsche Bank: This may lead to the market reevaluating AI.

Deutsche Bank points directly to the most core yet most underestimated structural contradiction in the current AI industry: there is a staggering "cost gap" between proprietary cutting-edge AI models and open-source/open-weight models.

Deutsche Bank "Surrenders to Powell": Will raise interest rates by 50 basis points this year, and may even raise rates early in July.

In its latest research report, Deutsche Bank has comprehensively raised its inflation expectations and completely reversed its previous monetary policy forecasts: it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice in 2026 (a total of 50 basis points), pushing the federal funds rate to 4.1%, and not ruling out the possibility of an early rate hike in July.

"New America News Agency": 1996 or 1999? Wash's first test is "how to look at AI"

Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the "new Fed communications office," said that Powell's primary test as head of the Fed is to determine the nature of AI prosperity: whether it is the production productivity dividend of 1996 (stay put) or the demand overheating of 1999 (need to raise interest rates).

New Stock News | Zhii Biotech filed an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its core product SK08 and key product SK10 have achieved multiple research and development milestones.

According to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 18th, Guangzhou Zhiyi Biological Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Zhiyi Biological") submitted its listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guotai Junan Securities International and CICC International acting as its joint sponsors.

Republican lawmakers propose banning insider trading in prediction markets, while White House officials are exempt.

This bill explicitly prohibits members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from engaging in event contract betting on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket related to public policy issues, government actions, and political outcomes (including election results).

New Stock News | Zhiyi Biotech Submits Listing Application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

According to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 18, Guangzhou Zhiyi Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (referred to as Zhiyi Biotechnology) has submitted its application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guotai Junan Securities International and CICC being its joint sponsors.

New Stock News | Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. (688036.SH) has submitted a second listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It has a total of five production bases in Chongqing, Shenzhen, and other overseas locations.

According to the disclosure by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 18th, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. (referred to as Transsion Holdings (688036.SH)) has submitted an application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as its exclusive sponsor.

New Stocks News | Shiyao Innovation (300765.SZ) Successfully Commercialized Three Antibody Drugs in Hong Kong Exchange for the Second Time

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed on June 18, Shi Pharma Innovations Pharmaceuticals Limited (abbreviated as Shi Pharma Innovations (300765.SZ)) submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange main board, with CITIC Securities as its exclusive sponsor. The company had previously submitted an application for listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 10, 2025.

The traffic volume of oil tankers in the Hormuz Strait has significantly increased. Gulf oil-producing countries have reopened bidding.

With the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran taking effect, the previously conflict-ridden Strait of Hormuz, which had been continuously disrupted for the past three and a half months, finally began to restore its original function: continuously exporting oil and fuel.

New stock news | Stone Pharmaceutical Innovation (300765.SZ) is seeking a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

According to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 18, Stone Pharmaceuticals Limited (referred to as "Stone Pharmaceuticals (300765.SZ)") has submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange main board, with Citic Securities as its exclusive sponsor. The company had previously submitted its application for listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 10, 2025.

Trump keeps a close eye on AI: One week ago Anthropic was considered a "national security threat", and now does not rule out intervention when necessary.

When asked if he believes that Anthropic poses a threat to American security, Trump said, "Not now, maybe a week ago." He said that the company responded quickly after concerns were expressed by the US government and acted "very responsibly." He will not shut down the company, but is not sure if it is necessary to use emergency powers granted by law to intervene.

Goldman Sachs is cautious about the US stock market: geopolitical momentum tends to stagnate, CTA's downward asymmetric risk highlights.

The head of Goldman Sachs One-Delta trading desk pointed out that multiple risks are accumulating: substantive obstacles in US-Iran nuclear negotiations, the geopolitical premium of oil prices has not been fully digested by the market, the market is pricing physical crude oil, but has not fully discounted the lack of trust and the continued deterioration of US-Iran agreement momentum. At the same time, a downward asymmetric pattern has formed in CTA, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy framework and the rising volatility of the bond market are intertwined and superimposed, and the hidden risks in the market structure cannot be ignored.

314Ah in short supply, 500Ah+ melee: Energy storage cell showdown begins.

In 2026, energy storage batteries seem to have reached an industry turning point.

From "Token competition" to "Token throttling": Average monthly costs reach $7500 per person, astronomical bills force giants to collectively hit the brakes.

Businesses have shifted their AI spending from "extreme consumption" to "extreme conservation," with industry giants setting limits on AI usage and intelligent tools to deal with rising cost pressures. This budget control trend has sparked a debate among companies between cost control and productivity, while also bringing a windfall to infrastructure providers like Microsoft and Databricks that offer cost optimization, gateway tools, and model routers.

AI godfather warns: Musk's xAI has "failed", AI industry may face a "big bubble burst"

Yann LeCun, known as the "Godfather of AI", openly criticized Musk's xAI, calling it a "failure", and warned the entire AI industry that if costs are not reduced and pricing is not increased soon, it could face the risk of a "massive bubble burst".

"Dollar rebound ends emerging market currency bull market, hottest forex trading of the year cools rapidly"

The new head of the Federal Reserve made his debut by being hawkish, completely shattering expectations of an interest rate cut and causing a massive upheaval in the global currency market. The US dollar rebounded strongly, with a surge in buying options across the market. As a result of this impact, emerging markets that were popular for "carry trade" are facing collective liquidation, with funds accelerating their return. In the short term, the strong US dollar has once again dominated the global capital landscape.

Energy costs increase inflationary pressure! South Korea's Producer Price Index (PPI) in May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, reaching a near four-year high.

The double-wheel drive of energy shocks and semiconductor prosperity has led to sustained "explosive" inflation in South Korea's upstream. As the price hikes spread to the consumer end, the internal consensus of the "hawkish" faction within the Bank of Korea is rapidly expanding. A storm of interest rate hikes may be brewing, and investors need to be highly vigilant of the risks of policy tightening.

Washington releases hawk, U.S. dollar "turning point" is here?

Wash releases a strong hawkish signal, causing the market to quickly reassess the outlook for the US dollar: the US dollar index sees its largest two-day gain in three months, with a surge in large-scale bets on the dollar in the options market. Traders begin betting on the Federal Reserve raising rates as soon as July, increasing the attractiveness of US dollar assets, while major currencies such as the euro and yen are under pressure across the board.

When will the large-scale models in China reach the level of Fable? Musk predicts by the first quarter of next year, Tang Jie says it won't take that long.

With the release of GLM-5.2 and the previous top models of Anthropic being banned by US export controls, a public debate about the "race against time" for large models between China and the United States has erupted on overseas social media platforms. This has even attracted the participation of the world's richest man, Musk, and the founder of Zhipu, Tang Jie.

The yen falls to a nearly 40-year low, with the finance minister reiterating "bold action will be taken."

The Japanese yen has fallen to a near 40-year low, and although the Japanese government frequently issues verbal warnings and has thrown more than 70 billion USD to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it still struggles against the structural pressure brought by the high interest rate differential between the US and Japan, arbitrage trading, and reinflationary policies. The market is betting that the Tokyo authorities may suddenly intervene to rescue the currency, but analysts believe that as long as the high interest rates in the US remain, it will be difficult for the weakness of the yen to fundamentally reverse.

Wash "hawkish debut", Goldman Sachs downgrades gold target price, "if interest rates really rise this year, the price of gold will further decline."

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold target price for 2026 to $4900, and has recently adopted a "tactically cautious" stance. The report warns that if there are two rate hikes in the fall, the price of gold could fall to $4440. However, the strong structural trend of central banks globally buying gold provides core support, and mid-term geopolitical risks could drive the price of gold to surpass $6000.

Hong Kong student dormitory operator Student Living EduVation (SDLV.US) raises fundraising target to $31 million IPO price $4-6 per share.

Student Living EduVation (SDLV.US) increased its IPO issuance size on Thursday.

The U.S.-Iran talks on Friday were cancelled, international oil prices rebounded slightly, and gold prices fell by 2%.

The US-Iran talks scheduled to take place at the Burgenstock Resort in Switzerland on Friday will be cancelled.

Interest rate futures trading "four times unusual"! Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month?

According to the latest data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Thursday, as bond traders aggressively shorted bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the next meeting, trading volume in August federal funds rate futures spiked. Over 500,000 contracts changed hands on Wednesday, with trading volume soaring to about four times the 20-day average.

Has the market overreacted to the oil price falling back to "pre-Iraq war levels"?

Brent crude oil fell below $77 per barrel this week, almost wiping out all geopolitical premiums since the outbreak of the Iran war, hitting the lowest level since the start of the conflict.

One picture understanding the Hong Kong Stock Exchange IPO of LB Pharmaceuticals (09637)

Hong Kong stock "the first stock of innovative drugs for kidney disease" LifeBond Medicine (09637) has introduced 11 top cornerstone investors, creating the strongest lineup in the Hong Kong stock 18A market in recent years.

China-Iran agreement sparks optimism, Asian stock markets approach historical highs.

Asian stock markets are approaching historical highs.

CME Group (CME.US) filed a lawsuit against CFTC accusing it of improperly approving perpetual futures trading.

The core dispute of this legal action lies in the regulatory compliance of perpetual futures contracts for cryptocurrency. CME accuses Selig of unilaterally approving perpetual futures contracts tied to the Bitcoin spot price without full committee review.

American Five Agencies Jointly Issue New Regulation: Stablecoin Issuers Must Verify User Identity Like Banks.

The financial regulatory landscape in the United States is at a critical turning point as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the National Credit Union Administration, and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network under the Department of Treasury jointly proposed a major new regulation on Thursday.

The Japanese yen nears a 40-year low! Japan's Finance Minister once again proposes "bold action" and issues a warning against speculation trading.

Kazuki Katayama expressed on Friday that, due to the Japanese yen exchange rate nearing its lowest level in the past forty years, the government can take bold actions to address speculative behaviors.

Latest

9 m ago

Informant: There is currently no report of casualties or injuries from the fire at the Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas, USA.

10 m ago

Insiders said that a fire broke out at the Marathon Petroleum refinery complex in Galveston Bay, Texas, but no casualties have been reported so far.

26 m ago

The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the focus of the talks on Sunday will be on ending the war, lifting sanctions, and unfreezing Iran's frozen funds.

51 m ago

Members of the Iranian negotiation delegation told Iranian official media: The draft related to the exemption of Iranian oil sanctions has been finalized, and the exemption order will be issued soon.

1 h ago

The head of the National Iranian Oil Company stated that since Monday, more than 25 million barrels of Iranian oil have been transported beyond the blockade line.

Seeking Coverage

Being Writer

Exploring Cooperation