GMT EIGHT - Commercial - Global

After Eight Consecutive Rate Cuts, the European Central Bank Pauses as Expected; Future Policy Direction Remains Murky

Backed by BYD, Why Has the Leading EV Charger Firm Seen Revenue Declines and Surging Losses?

Just Days Away from Losing Tens of Millions of Dollars! Copper-Laden Ships Race Toward U.S. Ports

Japan "Surrenders"? Trump Claims "U.S. and Japan Reach Deal: Japan Accepts 15% Tariff Rate, Opens Auto and Rice Markets, Pledges $550 Billion in U.S. Investments"

Over HK$100 Billion in Buybacks: Over 200 Hong Kong-Listed Companies Actively Repurchasing Shares, with Industry Giants Leading the Surg

US and EU Near Tariff Deal Amidst China Tensions

The U.S. and EU are nearing a trade deal involving a 15% tariff to avoid higher duties, while simultaneously, a critical China-EU summit in Beijing faces low expectations due to escalating trade imbalances and geopolitical tensions.

Global Markets Rally on U.S.–Japan Trade Agreement

Global equity markets surged after the U.S. and Japan announced a trade deal cutting tariffs on Japanese auto imports from 25% to 15%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 3.5%, led by strong gains in Toyota (+14%), Honda (+11%), and Nissan (+8%). The rally spread to Europe, with the Euro STOXX 600 up 1% and Germany’s DAX also gaining. U.S. stock futures moved higher, the dollar weakened slightly against the yen, and Japanese bond yields rose. Brent crude prices stabilized. The deal raised hopes for further trade breakthroughs, particularly ahead of U.S.–EU talks, boosting overall investor confidence.

Trump Media Commits $2 Billion to Bitcoin in Strategic Expansion into Digital Finance

Trump Media has invested $2 billion in Bitcoin and related assets as part of a broader strategy to expand into digital finance and diversify its revenue streams.

Is Resignation the Path to Protecting Federal Reserve Independence?

To safeguard its autonomy from political meddling, the Federal Reserve faces a critical decision regarding Jerome Powell, as intense scrutiny is placed upon whether the current Chair's resignation could best preserve the institution's independence.

Global Oil Prices Waver Amidst Tariff Worries and Shifting Demand Outlook

Global oil prices are experiencing downward pressure due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff decisions and concerns about flagging fuel demand. Despite some offsetting factors like potential diesel supply tightening, the market remains cautious as significant geopolitical developments and inventory data introduce volatility.

After Luna's Echo: South Korea Forges Ahead with Digital Currency Amid Central Bank's Cautionary Stance

South Korea is advancing with plans for a won-pegged stablecoin, despite warnings from its central bank regarding financial stability, as nations worldwide, including the U.S. with its new GENIUS Act and China exploring yuan-pegged stablecoins in Hong Kong, race to regulate and adopt digital currencies.

ECB Expected to Pause Rate Cuts Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Strong Euro

The European Central Bank is expected to pause its rate cuts, keeping the main rate at 2%, amid rising trade tensions and a stronger euro. The upcoming 30% U.S. tariff on EU exports could trim eurozone GDP by 0.5 percentage point, prompting policymakers to reassess further easing. With inflation nearing the 2% target and the euro approaching $1.20, concerns about competitiveness are growing. While some expect more cuts later in 2025, others foresee a longer pause. Investors will closely watch the ECB’s next decision as Europe faces growing external risks and internal economic fragility.

Fed’s Waller Advocates July Rate Cut Amid Slowing Growth and Labor Market Risks

On July 18, 2025, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming July 29–30 meeting, citing slowing growth and rising labor market risks. He downplayed the inflationary impact of new U.S. tariffs, calling them temporary, and advocated a shift to a more neutral policy stance.

Wall Street Hits Record Highs on Strong U.S. Economic Data

On July 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets hit record highs as strong retail sales, a sharp Philadelphia Fed Index rebound, and an upgraded GDP growth forecast (2.4%) boosted investor confidence. Robust earnings from United Airlines and PepsiCo also supported gains, especially in consumer and industrial sectors. Despite Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell, markets remained steady. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while Treasury yields rose. Global markets followed suit, with TSMC shares climbing on strong AI chip demand. Focus now shifts to inflation data and Fed decisions in the coming weeks.

Indonesia and U.S. Strike Trade Deal Amid Rising Global Tensions

Indonesia has finalized the framework of a new trade agreement with the United States, granting tariff-free access to American goods while accepting a steep 19% duty on its exports to the U.S. The deal, reached under pressure from the Trump administration, reflects Washington’s broader strategy to reshape global supply chains and limit China’s trade influence—leaving Indonesia navigating a precarious economic balancing act.

Stablecoin Legislation Sparks Surge in Circle Internet Stock

Shares of Circle Internet Group surged after the U.S. Senate passed landmark stablecoin legislation, signaling growing regulatory clarity and investor confidence in compliant digital asset platforms. The unexpected upside highlights how policy developments can turbocharge crypto-related equities, but it also raises questions about long-term valuations and regulatory execution.

Oil Prices Rebound as Inventories Decline Amid Global Trade Optimism

Oil prices recovered due to a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories and positive global trade developments. Key producers like the UAE, Iraq, and Brazil are aggressively expanding output, indicating a sustained commitment to oil supply despite environmental goals. This market dynamic reflects both immediate demand signals and long-term production strategies.

China's $42 Billion Stimulus: A Short-Term Boost with Long-Term Risks

China's extensive $42 billion consumer stimulus campaign is yielding immediate positive retail results, but it faces long-term risks due to "borrowed" future consumption, ongoing consumer confidence issues stemming from the real estate crisis, and the need for more sustainable economic reforms beyond temporary subsidies.

Market Jitters as ASML Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook Amid Tariff Concerns

European markets reacted cautiously as ASML, a leading chip equipment supplier, tempered its 2026 growth forecast due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including tariff worries. Despite strong Q2 orders fueled by AI demand, broader inflation concerns and U.S. tariff discussions cast a shadow on investor sentiment, impacting technology and auto sectors.

Markets Slide as U.S. Tariff Threats on EU and Mexico Reignite Trade Tensions

Global markets declined on July 14, 2025, after President Trump announced a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1. European futures fell ~0.7%, and U.S. futures dropped 0.4%, as investors grew concerned about renewed trade tensions and supply chain disruptions. Trump also criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising speculation about a possible leadership change and future rate cuts. While Asian markets remained steady, sentiment in Europe and the U.S. turned cautious, with analysts expecting rising volatility as the August deadline nears.

US Dollar's Plummet: A Consequence of Trump-Era Economic Policies

The US dollar's significant decline, the largest since 1973, is primarily attributed to President Trump's economic policies, which are prompting global investors to divest from dollar-denominated assets and eroding the currency's safe-haven status.

China's Economy Navigates Trade Tensions and Deflationary Headwinds

China's Q2 economy likely grew around 5.2% due to strong exports, but trade tensions and domestic deflation pose challenges. Weak consumer demand and bank struggles with consumer lending signal a potential slowdown in H2 2025. Policymakers face pressure for further stimulus, with the year's growth possibly falling short of the official target.

Bank of England Warns of Lingering Financial Stability Risks Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The Bank of England has issued a stark warning that global financial stability remains at risk due to intensifying geopolitical tensions and uneven economic adjustments to tighter monetary policies. While systemic vulnerabilities have not triggered a crisis, markets remain fragile and potentially susceptible to external shocks. As political fragmentation deepens and capital markets evolve, central banks and investors face growing pressure to reassess risk frameworks and financial resilience.

Oil Markets Brace for Turbulence: Tariff Threats and Swelling Inventories

Oil prices face headwinds from rising U.S. inventories and impending tariff expansions by President Trump. Industry reports show a substantial increase in U.S. crude stockpiles. Despite OPEC+'s planned output increases, market anxiety persists regarding oversupply and trade-related demand concerns, creating a cautious outlook for global oil markets.

Brazil’s Auto Industry Hits a Bump – June Sales and Production Both Decline

In June 2025, Brazil’s automotive sector recorded a simultaneous decline in both production and sales. With output dropping 6.5% to 200,764 units and new vehicle registrations down 5.7% to 212,932, the data reflects not just cyclical softness but also deeper structural pressures. These include surging Chinese EV imports, growing protectionist calls from domestic automakers, and ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy. This article explores the key drivers behind the downturn and the wider implications for Brazil’s industrial and climate strategy.

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