Trump upsets the situation, Wall Street waves rise again: Bank giants make a fortune but dare not be optimistic.

Investors find it difficult to predict Trump's erratic policies, which led to Wall Street's major banks setting trading records in the first quarter of 2025. However, as industry leaders look towards the future, they have neither clear answers nor optimism about the impending situation. On Friday, as the top three US banks kicked off the earnings season, words like "uncertainty", "unknown factors", and "turmoil" kept appearing. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said during a conference call that not only is the economic situation opaque and unpredictable, the key issue lies in whether western economic and military alliances can maintain unity. The largest US bank surprised analysts with a $973 million provision for bad debts a number that exceeded analysts' estimates by 40%. Dimon stated that the bank's capital reserves exceed regulatory requirements, and they have sufficient liquidity "to weather any storm". "Perhaps when we have our earnings conference call next quarter, we won't have to speculate anymore," he added. The earnings conference calls were filled with "uncertainty" JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Company, and Morgan Stanley all exceeded profit expectations, but they all described concerns from consumers and the business sector. While the stocks of these three banks initially surged, the gains gradually faded and even turned negative as the market opened. Trump's chaotic tariff policies and efforts to shrink government agencies aimed at unleashing US growth potential have raised concerns about trade, inflation, unemployment, and potential recession. Bank executives stated that businesses are pausing expansion plans, including those lucrative M&A deals handled by Wall Street traders. "From what we can see in the market, many companies are pausing operations and choosing to wait and see," Dimon pointed out. "This applies to M&A deals, as well as M&A activities for medium-sized businesses, and even affects business recruitment plans." When analyst Mike Mayo asked whether multinational US companies like JPMorgan should worry about being involved in a trade war, Dimon admitted, "We will be targets. That's what's going to happen, but it's okay." Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank supports the government's efforts to break down trade barriers, but noted that this increases corporate risks. "Addressing the issue in a timely manner benefits the US and will also benefit businesses, consumers, and the market," Scharf said his company is "prepared for an economic slowdown in 2025." Executives noted that consumers are still maintaining their habits for now, although some are rushing to make certain purchases ahead of expected tariff changes. "If the labor market remains strong, consumer credit may not be a problem," said Jeremy Barnum, CFO of JPMorgan Chase, "otherwise, history may repeat itself." Analysts pressed some executives about recent bond market fluctuations which prompted Trump to decide to negotiate a 90-day deadline extension for multiple tariffs. Barnum stated that JPMorgan is of course closely monitoring the situation, and Dimon responded, "We are watching every minute." Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick told analysts that stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange markets show that investors are adjusting their predictions on economic prospects around the clock. "Over the past three years, we have been talking about the 'end of history' the era of a long-term political economic pattern towards globalization coming to an end," he said. "Now history is restarting. This adjustment period will inevitably make the future harder to predict."