Under the economic dark cloud, who is happy and who is sad among the American oil giants? Goldman Sachs identifies two big winners.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recently released a U.S. Energy Corp. industry research report, focusing on the performance and prospects of oil super giants in the current macroeconomic environment. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is bullish on ConocoPhillips (COP.US) and Chevron Corporation (CVX.US), but is cautious about Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US). Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. maintains a "buy" rating on ConocoPhillips, but has lowered the target price from $126 to $121. ConocoPhillips is soon to release its financial report, and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is optimistic about the company, believing its risk/return ratio is attractive. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. highlights the company's excellent quarterly execution, diversified growth investment portfolio, and commitment to capital returns throughout the cycle. Despite the current soft macroeconomic environment, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes the company's target of $10 billion in capital returns by 2025 is achievable. Additionally, despite investor caution about peak capital expenditures, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that with a series of projects (NFE, Port Arthur, NFS, Willow) coming online between 2026 and 2029, ConocoPhillips' capital expenditures will decrease and free cash flow will increase. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. currently expects ConocoPhillips to earn $2.03 per share in the first quarter of 2025, while the market expects $2.06 per share. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. maintains a "buy" rating on Chevron Corporation, but has lowered the target price from $186 to $176. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. holds a constructive view on Chevron Corporation, with key projects in Kazakhstan, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Permian Basin expected to drive production and free cash flow growth. The company aims to save $2-3 billion in structural costs by improving core operations and divesting assets by 2026. However, due to the more challenging recent environment, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is adjusting its forecasts to better reflect the current background. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has reduced its expectations for Chevron Corporation's stock buybacks by around $5 billion and currently expects buybacks of $12.5 billion in both 2025 and 2026 to reflect the soft commodity price environment. In terms of financial reports, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. looks forward to more details from Chevron Corporation's management on capital returns and the upcoming arbitration case with HES.US, noting that management has consistently expressed confidence in the arbitration outcome. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. currently expects Chevron Corporation to earn $2.06 per share in the first quarter of 2025, while the market expects $2.24 per share. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. maintains a "neutral" rating on Exxon Mobil Corporation and has lowered the target price from $120 to $117. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has a positive view on Exxon Mobil Corporation's good operational track record in high-quality upstream assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG), and progress in reducing structural costs and increasing shareholder returns. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects Exxon Mobil Corporation to return $37 billion to shareholders in 2025 and 2026, with a return rate of approximately 8%. However, according to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s estimates, Exxon Mobil Corporation's free cash flow return rates in 2025 and 2026 are 5%/7% (based on $68/$70 Brent crude oil prices), compared to Chevron Corporation's rates of 9%/10%. Additionally, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects Exxon Mobil Corporation's capital expenditures to increase, with the company's guidance indicating expenditures of $27-29 billion in 2025 and $28-33 billion from 2026 to 2030. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. currently expects Exxon Mobil Corporation to earn $1.78 per share in the first quarter of 2025, while the market expects $1.74 per share.