GMT EIGHT - World News

Labor market is gradually cooling down! The number of job vacancies in the United States decreased in February.

In February, job vacancies in the US decreased while layoffs remained low, indicating that the labor market is gradually cooling. Following the release of this data, US stocks initially fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1% at one point. As of the time of writing, the three major indexes have recovered, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.5%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.17%, and the Dow rising by 0.01%. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that job vacancies in February decreased from a revised 7.76 million in January to 7.57 million, lower than economists' expectations of 7.66 million. Among them, the most significant decreases in job vacancies were in retail trade, finance, and accommodation and food services industries. Although job vacancies have been declining since their peak in 2022 and have mostly returned to pre-pandemic levels, uncertainty surrounding President Trump's policies is hindering business investment plans, which could further suppress the job market and overall economic growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has described the current job market as being in a state of "low layoffs, low hiring" for several months, and the market expects the employment report to be released this Friday to show continued slowing of hiring activity, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. The JOLTS report also shows that the hiring rate in February remained at 3.4%, close to the lowest levels since the early days of the pandemic, while the layoff rate remained steady compared to before the pandemic. However, layoffs have been increasing in recent years, mainly driven by layoffs in the federal government. The increase in federal government layoffs in the February JOLTS report was the highest since 2010, and since then, the government has laid off thousands of employees. The March layoff announcements to be released on Thursday will cover data on layoffs in the private sector. In addition, consumer confidence in job prospects and financial conditions has recently declined, with companies including Walmart Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. warning that future demand may weaken. If consumer spending significantly decreases, it could impact business hiring plans. The "quit rate," a measure of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs, remained at 2% in February, much lower than the peak of 3% in 2022. More and more workers are choosing to keep their current jobs due to pessimism about the economic outlook, and the wage increase advantage from job switching has mostly disappeared. Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul said, "The unexpected decline in job vacancies in February further strengthens our judgment that the US labor market is cooling... Revisions to the layoff rate and quit rate suggest that the labor market loosening at the beginning of this year is greater than initially estimated." The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons, a key indicator the Federal Reserve pays attention to, remained at 1.1, much lower than the peak of 2:1 in 2022. However, some economists have questioned the accuracy of the JOLTS data, partly due to the low response rate and significant revisions. A similar indicator provided by the job search website Indeed shows that job vacancies decreased in February and have fallen to the lowest level in four years by the end of March. Additionally, another report released on Tuesday showed that the US manufacturing sector fell into contraction for the first time in March, with prices rising significantly, indicating that the impact of rising tariffs on the economy is worsening.

01/04/2025

The US ISM manufacturing activity shrank for the first time this year, with the price index rising significantly due to the impact of tariffs.

After two months of brief expansion, the US manufacturing industry slipped back into contraction in March. The latest Manufacturing Business Report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing dropped to 49%, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from February's 50.3%. The new orders index continued to shrink for the second consecutive month, falling to 45.2%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous value; the production index fell to 48.3%, ending two months of expansion; the employment index further contracted to 44.7%, indicating that businesses are continuing to reduce staff in the face of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the backlog of orders index dropped to 44.5%, reflecting ongoing weak demand, and the supplier deliveries index, although slightly decreased to 53.5%, still indicated slowed deliveries; the import index remained in the expansion range at 50.1%; while the new export orders index fell to 49.6%, re-entering the contraction zone. Additionally, due to tariff impacts, the price index surged by 7 percentage points to 69.4%, reaching the highest level since mid-2022; and the manufacturer's inventory index rebounded to 53.4%, reversing the six-month contraction trend. Some companies have been stockpiling goods early to avoid the impact of tariffs, but overall market demand remains weak, and business confidence in future economic prospects has weakened. Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, pointed out that while manufacturing demand and output are weak, the input side (including supplier deliveries, inventory, prices, and imports) is expanding, sending negative signals for economic growth. Businesses are facing rising cost pressures due to tariffs, while backlogs of orders, new orders, and export demand continue to decline, prompting factories to adjust production plans and exacerbating the trend of job cuts. 46% of manufacturing GDP shrank in March, a significant increase from 24% in February, with the proportion of manufacturing GDP below the 45% PMI threshold rising to 7%, reflecting a worsening overall manufacturing outlook. Among the six major manufacturing industries, only petroleum and coal products, computers and electronic products, and transportation equipment industries maintained expansion, while wood products, paper products, plastics and rubber products, furniture and related products, chemicals, food and beverage products, and machinery industries all experienced varying degrees of contraction. Several manufacturing companies reported that soft market demand, increased inventory, global economic instability, and tariff uncertainties have heightened operational pressures. Some companies have tried to increase inventory early to cope with potential cost increases, but the overall demand trend remains uncertain. The interviewed companies generally stated that tariffs, supply chain tensions, and changes in the global economic environment will continue to shape the future of the manufacturing industry.

01/04/2025

US manufacturing growth stagnates in March, economic and tariff uncertainties pose challenges.

Under the influence of economic and tariff policy uncertainty, the growth of the US manufacturing industry stagnated in March. According to the latest data from S&P Global, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for US manufacturing recorded 50.2 in March, still in the expansion zone, but only slightly higher than the market forecast of 49.8, indicating a weak improvement in manufacturing operation conditions. This is also the third consecutive month that the index has been above 50, indicating expansion. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist of S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated in the latest press release: "The strong momentum of the US manufacturing industry at the beginning of the year slowed down in March. At the beginning of the year, due to optimistic expectations for the new government and the demand from businesses to proactively respond to tariff policies, the production sector received some support, but cracks have now appeared. In March, US manufacturing output declined for the first time in three months, and new orders also continued to decrease." Although businesses still have relatively high confidence in the future economic outlook, this optimism is mainly based on the hope that the short-term disruptions caused by tariffs and other policies will ultimately be offset by the long-term benefits of new government policies. However, in March, more and more manufacturers are beginning to doubt this expectation. Business optimism for the next year has further declined from the near three-year high in January, and has sharply dropped in the past two months. Due to the dampened business confidence, manufacturing companies in March stopped hiring growth for the first time since October last year. The uncertainty of tariff policies has become one of the most concerning issues for manufacturers, especially the impact of customers canceling or delaying expenditures due to policy changes. In addition, businesses are facing dual pressures of rising costs and deteriorating supply chains. In March, tariffs were cited as the primary reason for the increase in factory input costs, with the fastest increase since the supply chain disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2022. Supply chain conditions have also deteriorated, with delivery delays reaching the highest level since October 2022. Chris Williamson emphasized: "The data in the coming months will provide important insights to assess how the inflationary impact of tariffs and other policies balances with the benefits they may bring to US manufacturers."

01/04/2025

The "nuclear bomb" of US tariffs is coming! The global manufacturing industry is trembling, and factory activities are shrinking in many places.

The global survey released on Tuesday showed that manufacturing activities in factories around the world, from Japan to the UK, declined in March as companies prepared for the new round of US tariffs. However, some factories rushed to deliver goods to customers before the new tariffs took effect, resulting in a rebound in activities. US President Donald Trump is set to announce tariff proposals on Wednesday, following his imposition of tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles, as well as tariffs on all goods from China. Trump stated that all countries will be subject to equivalent tariffs with no exemptions. The market is concerned that this move will have a negative impact on the global economy. The closely watched economic confidence indicator - the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey - showed that manufacturing activities in most Asian factories weakened in March due to the upcoming tariffs and weak global demand, affecting business confidence. Manufacturing activities in Japan experienced the fastest decline in a year, while the decline in manufacturing activities in South Korea accelerated. China was an exception, with economic activity in the world's second largest economy picking up as factories rushed to deliver goods to consumers before US tariffs took effect. The Eurozone PMI for the 20 countries showed that manufacturing output rose for the first time in two years, with the rush to deliver goods before tariffs took effect considered as one of the factors leading to a rebound in European manufacturing. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank, stated: "This trend is likely largely related to advance orders before the introduction of US tariffs, suggesting that there may be some rebound in the coming months." Germany, the largest economy in Europe, saw production growth for the first time in nearly two years, while the economic slowdown in France eased. However, UK manufacturers faced a difficult March, with a significant decline in new orders due to tariff threats and upcoming tax increases, leading to a gradual decline in business optimism. Investors remain anxious, with gold prices hitting all-time highs. Other indicators released on Tuesday showed weakness, with slower export growth in South Korea than expected, and a closely watched survey in Japan indicating that business confidence among large manufacturers hit a one-year low.

01/04/2025

Reports say Trump aides have drafted a proposal to impose approximately 20% tariffs on most goods imported into the United States.

According to local media reports on Tuesday, White House aides have drafted a plan to impose tariffs of around 20% on most of the $3 trillion worth of goods imported to the US each year. President Trump is ready to announce reciprocal tariffs, raising concerns among global businesses, consumers, and investors about escalating global trade wars. Trump stated on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs would apply to all countries, and the White House said on Monday that any country that unfairly treats Americans should be prepared to face tariffs. For weeks, Trump has designated April 2 as the "liberation day" for his most ambitious action yet to disrupt global trade norms that have been in place for over half a century. In these norms, international trade barriers have decreased, but this Republican president believes that American goods and workers are at a disadvantage. White House advisors reportedly stated that a final decision has not been made yet, with several options currently on the table. According to reports citing three sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is also considering using the expected tens of billions of dollars of new import revenue for tax benefits or refunds. Global investors are anxiously awaiting details. This Republican president has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel, and cars, while also increasing tariffs on all goods from China. As April 2 approaches, signs indicate that the US economy, which has been growing at an above-trend pace in recent years, is losing momentum due to the uncertainty brought about by Trump's often chaotic economic policy-making methods, especially in terms of trade. Numerous surveys of households and businesses show a decline in confidence in the economic outlook. People are increasingly worried that Trump's tariffs will lead to a resurgence of inflation, as consumers still vividly remember the rapid inflation of the past. Over the past month, panicked investors have sold off stocks in droves, leading to nearly $5 trillion in market value evaporating from the US stock market since mid-February. The risks are not limited to the US alone. A business survey released on Tuesday shows that escalating tariff wars and a slowdown in global demand are dampening business confidence, with factory activity in Asia weakening and prospects dimming. Meanwhile, initial signs of a manufacturing revival in Europe have been overshadowed by concerns that the uptick in manufacturing activity in March may have been mainly due to buyers placing orders ahead of Trump's new tariffs. However, Hamburg Commercial Bank's chief economist, Cyrus de la Rubia, stated that this "suggests that there may be some rebound in the coming months."

01/04/2025

Accumulation of economic recession risks. Pimco is optimistic about global bonds bringing stable returns.

With the possibility of a US economic downturn increasing, The Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) highlights the attractiveness of global bonds as a "source of stable returns." The bond management company warns that President Trump's aggressive trade measures, government spending cuts, and immigration policies may drag down the US economy and damage the labor market more severely than expected, supporting their view of leaning towards safer assets in their investment portfolio. Pimco economists Tiffany Wilding and Global Chief Investment Officer Andrew Balls stated in a report, "There are good reasons to shift investments from overvalued US stocks to a broader portfolio of global high-quality bonds." "The market is in the early stages of a multi-year phase, where fixed income performance may outperform stocks, while offering a more favorable risk-adjusted return." In the first quarter of this year, US bonds outperformed US stocks, with a return rate of 2.9%, while the S&P 500 index fell by 4.6%. Currently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year US bonds is around 4.15%, in the mid-range of Pimco's "cyclical range of 3.75%-4.75%." The company said that the rising risk of a US economic recession implies that if the market starts pricing in more rate cuts, yields may further decrease. So far, Pimco's forecasts have been validated. The $180 billion Pimco Income Fund has returned 3.3% year-to-date, outperforming 96% of similar funds, making it the world's largest actively managed bond fund. In its latest outlook, Pimco recommended investors diversify their investments in the global bond market, particularly increasing exposure to bonds in the UK and Australia. In contrast, the company believes that long-term bond exposure in Europe is less attractive due to significant fiscal pressures, and expects that bond yields in the Eurozone market will steepen. Currently, the yield on the German ten-year government bond is around 2.70%. Pimco has raised its "expected range" for this yield from 2.0%-3.0% to 2.5%-3.5%, indicating the possibility of further repricing. Pimco had previously noted at the beginning of the year that market uncertainty would help boost bond returns. Last month, Pimco Chief Investment Officer Daniel Ivascyn reiterated this prediction and urged investors to increase exposure to 5-10 year bonds. In mid-January this year, US bond yields peaked, with the five-year US bond yield reaching 4.6% and the ten-year US bond yield reaching 4.8%. Subsequently, mid-term bond yields have dropped by about 60 basis points, mainly driven by signs of weakened consumer and business confidence due to tariff effects. Additionally, the stock market decline has prompted investors to view government bonds as a safe haven for multi-asset portfolios. Pimco also provided other investment views for investors in the next 6-12 months. The company stated, "Historically, initial bond yields are closely related to five-year forward returns," adding that the domestic bond market may benefit from funds flowing out of the US; in the hard currency bond market, the availability of investment-grade corporate bonds is increasing and attractive. Additionally, Pimco expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by another 50 basis points this year, but faces challenges in decision-making due to the conflicting effects of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.

01/04/2025

The market is focusing on the mid-term harvest season in West Africa, and cocoa prices have seen their largest increase in a week.

Market attention is focusing on the upcoming mid-term harvest season in the major cocoa-producing countries of West Africa, with cocoa futures prices seeing their largest increase in over a week. In New York, the price of the most actively traded cocoa futures contract surged by 3.7% at one point, reaching $8,197 per ton; while in London, cocoa futures prices saw a 2.3% increase in intra-day trading on Tuesday. As farmers enter the mid-term harvest season, traders are closely monitoring the situation in West Africa. Market expectations suggest that cocoa production in the world's largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, may decrease. The second, smaller harvest season of this year, which usually begins in April, has been affected by high temperatures and prolonged drought. Furthermore, there is more uncertainty in the mid-term harvest season, as harvest times may be delayed by about a month to allow the cocoa pods more time to mature. Despite this, cocoa prices have fallen by nearly 40% since peaking in December of last year. The International Cocoa Organization predicts a slight oversupply in the cocoa market for the 2024-2025 season. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Ignacio Canals Polo and Diana Gmez wrote in a report: "The decline in cocoa prices from over $10,000 per ton at the beginning of the year is reasonable. However, structural production challenges still exist, meaning that cocoa prices may still remain high compared to historical levels."

01/04/2025

"Trump Tariff 'Liberation Day' is coming, the pharmaceutical industry may not be in the target line."

According to reports, President Trump is expected to announce a series of broader tariff measures on April 2 (Wednesday), which will not include any specific details on drug tariffs; This has been dubbed as a "liberation day" by Trump. Wall Street is preparing for Trump's "liberation day" tariff plan, which the Trump administration claims is a response to foreign "unfair trade practices" and an attempt to promote local manufacturing, but pharmaceutical companies can breathe a sigh of relief. Insiders revealed that in order to minimize the impact on the economy and buy time to shift production overseas, pharmaceutical companies are lobbying Trump to gradually increase tariffs rather than implement them all at once. Since the start of his second term, President Trump has repeatedly threatened to expand the tariff war to pharmaceutical products, but medical products have been exempt from trade wars for a long time due to their impact on public health. However, in anticipation of eventual tariffs on medical products imposed by the US, major pharmaceutical companies are now pushing to gradually increase tariffs to 25%, rather than implementing them from day one. One source stated: "From the pharmaceutical industry's perspective, the idea of gradually increasing tariffs is certainly present."

01/04/2025

EU response to US tariff threats: Strong retaliatory measures will be taken if necessary.

The European Union has stated that if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes so-called reciprocal tariffs on the EU this week, the EU will take multiple measures to retaliate against the United States. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday, "We may not want to retaliate. If necessary, we have a strong retaliation plan and we will use it." The U.S. plans to impose comprehensive tariffs on global partners as early as Wednesday. Trump has stated that these measures will correct tariffs as well as what he deems unfair non-tariff barriers, such as domestic regulations and tax practices in various countries, including the EU's value-added tax. The EU has stated that its value-added tax is a fair and non-discriminatory tax that applies equally to domestic and imported goods. France and other countries are urging trade officials to consider deploying the EU's anti-coercive tools. Media reports have suggested that this could lead to restrictions on trade and services, as well as certain intellectual property rights, foreign direct investments, and public procurement channels. Von der Leyen stated that once new tariffs are announced, the goal is to "resolve issues through negotiation." The EU is preparing to retaliate against up to 26 billion worth of American goods in response to the U.S. metal tariffs. Von der Leyen mentioned that Europe's strengths not only lie in trade but also in technology, which impacts the operations of major U.S. tech companies in Europe. The EU may include these companies as part of retaliatory measures. The European Commission can use various legal means to limit these companies' opportunities to obtain government contracts or to sell digital advertising in a market worth around 100 billion ($108 billion). Von der Leyen said, "Europe has many cards to play. From trade to technology, to the size of our market. But this strength is also based on our readiness to take resolute countermeasures at any time. All options are on the negotiating table." It was previously reported that the European Commission was drafting a "list of terms" to reach an agreement with the U.S. after the new tariffs take effect. This list would outline areas for negotiation with the U.S. on tariffs, mutual investments, and easing certain regulations and standards. However, sources indicated that it will take time for the EU's 27 countries to reach a consensus. EU trade ministers will meet in Luxembourg on April 7th to start discussions on how to address Trump's tariff plans and prepare for tough negotiations. In addition to imposing tariffs on automobiles and certain components, Trump has also announced tariffs on other industry products such as lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. It is not yet clear when these additional tariffs will be implemented. In recent weeks, Trump administration officials in Washington highlighted EU regulations perceived as barriers to U.S. exporters, such as digital taxes, environmental requirements, or value-added taxes. The EU had proposed an agreement to the U.S. government to lower industrial tariffs, including those on automobiles, and possibly increase imports of American products like soybeans and liquefied natural gas. However, EU Trade Commissioner Maros efovi, who visited Washington last week, has so far failed to persuade the U.S. to start negotiations before announcing reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. Trump has stated that his tariff barriers will encourage foreign manufacturers - or U.S. companies operating overseas - to build factories in the U.S. and hire American workers, thereby reversing the hollowing out of the American middle class. Additionally, the tariff war aims to create revenue to offset the costs of tax cuts. But EU officials and businesses are concerned that this trade impact will affect the relationship between the two long-standing allies. Von der Leyen said on Tuesday, "This is the largest and most prosperous trade relationship in the world. If we can find constructive solutions, we will all be better off." As part of its response to the U.S. trade offensive, the EU also hopes to make progress in diversifying its trade relationships. In addition to agreements with 76 countries, the EU recently concluded negotiations with the Mercosur, Mexico, and Switzerland, and plans to reach an agreement with India by the end of this year. Von der Leyen said, "Our message is clear: Europe is reliable, predictable, and open to fair business."

01/04/2025

Trump's "equal tariffs": A replay of the old play eight years ago?

For a long time, each negotiation will bring uncertainty.Hola, cmo ests?

01/04/2025

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