The market is focusing on the mid-term harvest season in West Africa, and cocoa prices have seen their largest increase in a week.

Market attention is focusing on the upcoming mid-term harvest season in the major cocoa-producing countries of West Africa, with cocoa futures prices seeing their largest increase in over a week. In New York, the price of the most actively traded cocoa futures contract surged by 3.7% at one point, reaching $8,197 per ton; while in London, cocoa futures prices saw a 2.3% increase in intra-day trading on Tuesday. As farmers enter the mid-term harvest season, traders are closely monitoring the situation in West Africa. Market expectations suggest that cocoa production in the world's largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, may decrease. The second, smaller harvest season of this year, which usually begins in April, has been affected by high temperatures and prolonged drought. Furthermore, there is more uncertainty in the mid-term harvest season, as harvest times may be delayed by about a month to allow the cocoa pods more time to mature. Despite this, cocoa prices have fallen by nearly 40% since peaking in December of last year. The International Cocoa Organization predicts a slight oversupply in the cocoa market for the 2024-2025 season. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Ignacio Canals Polo and Diana Gmez wrote in a report: "The decline in cocoa prices from over $10,000 per ton at the beginning of the year is reasonable. However, structural production challenges still exist, meaning that cocoa prices may still remain high compared to historical levels."