Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Chinese government's request to stop receiving Boeing aircraft will lead to a shortage of capacity supply for the three major airlines.

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that according to reports, the Chinese government has required major airlines to suspend the acceptance of any Boeing aircraft deliveries, and has instructed airlines to stop purchasing any equipment and parts related to American aircraft. It is noted that CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) halted the sale of 10 second-hand Boeing 787 aircraft on the Shanghai United Property Exchange on April 11, likely due to uncertainties in new aircraft deliveries and the need to rearrange capacity. Goldman Sachs stated that considering the ordering plans of Southern Airlines, Air China Limited (00753), and CHINA EAST AIR (00670), approximately 33% of the new narrow-body and wide-body aircraft scheduled for delivery from 2025 to 2027 are from Boeing. If the news is true, it would reduce the net aircraft growth for the three major airlines from around 4-5% to 2-3% from 2025 to 2027, and the expected annual compound growth rate of seat capacity would decrease from 3% to 2%. Assuming demand remains unchanged, Goldman Sachs expects the capacity shortage faced by the three major airlines to worsen, with the expected excess demand over supply increasing from 3% to 4%, and Southern Airlines being the most impacted due to the largest proportion of new Boeing aircraft orders.