Significantly lower the target price for US stocks, Wall Street "torn reports", but still insist "will rise this year"

A tariff policy chilled market confidence, causing top investment banks to collectively lower their full-year target for the S&P 500. On April 2nd, according to CCTV news, the White House issued a statement stating that President Trump will impose a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries, along with additional retaliatory tariffs, sparking market turmoil. The S&P 500 has retreated nearly 14% from its historical high on February 19th. The impact was even greater in terms of expectations. In the two weeks following the storm, ten top investment banks including J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Evercore ISI collectively lowered their full-year target for the S&P 500. At the beginning of the year, the market generally expected the index to cross 6500 points by 2025, but the latest average forecast is now only 6012 points. Some analysts even boldly predict that it could fall to 4450 points by the end of the year, representing a 15% downside from current levels. Based on the latest average forecast of 6012 points from Wall Street, with a baseline of 5881.63 points at the end of last year, the expected full-year increase is only about 2.2%, much lower than the over 20% gains of the past two years. At the beginning of the year, Wall Street was anticipating the tax benefits and relaxed regulations brought by the Republican government, but now only one word remains: adjustment. Market expectations suddenly cooled off. Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a report: "At the beginning of the year, the market's expectation for a 'blondie-style' soft landing has now been completely replaced by thorough uncertainty. The recent sharp decline in the U.S. stock market may become the first bear market directly triggered by U.S. presidential policies." Citigroup has lowered its year-end target from 6500 points to 5800 points, while also reducing its earnings per share forecast for 2025 from $270 to $255, slightly below the market average expectation of $262. J.P. Morgan, on April 7th, lowered its "benchmark expectation" from 6500 points to 5200 points and assumed that "some" tariffs could be alleviated. The bank wrote: "While we do not believe that 'American exceptionalism' has come to an end, this April 2nd shock occurred at a time of high valuations, crowded positions, and a highly concentrated market." Peter Berezin, chief strategist at BCA Research, has the lowest S&P 500 target for this year among all analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. In mid-February, he predicted that the index could fall to 4450 points by year-end, representing a 15% downside from current levels. In early March, he suggested that the U.S. economy could enter a recession in the next three months. This article is reprinted from Wall Street News, GMTEight editor: Chen Wenfang.