Caitong: The trend of consumer downgrading in the United States is emerging, pay attention to the relative advantages of cross-border e-commerce.

Caitong released a research report stating that Dunhuang.com ranked second on the US iPhone App Store's free app rankings. The bank believes that the essence of the Dunhuang.com explosion incident reflects the strong demand of American consumers for high cost-effective products, and cross-border e-commerce platforms are expected to continue to grow in traffic. The bank continues to be optimistic about the relative advantages of the cross-border e-commerce sector, and recommends focusing on undervalued positions: 1) In the background of supply chain fluctuations and order anxiety, it is recommended to prioritize platform ecosystems in the trading matching link, scarce overseas warehouse supply chain service listing targets, brand-oriented cross-border e-commerce, and high turnover + general category targets. Caitong's main points are as follows: On April 15, Dunhuang.com ranked second in the US iPhone App Store's free app rankings, leading to a sharp rise in related concept sectors in China. The tariff increases in the US have raised concerns about inflation, stimulating local consumers to demand direct purchases of Chinese goods, while domestic factories have used TikTok to release live shopping videos, with the "#China Supply Chain" topic reaching over 1 billion views, driving a lot of attention. Dunhuang.com, as a B2B trading platform, quickly gained popularity, with the iOS downloads in the US market increasing by 940% as of April 13. The short-term surge in traffic may be accidental, but the demand of American consumers for high cost-effective products is worth noting. Dunhuang.com helps companies meet the T86 mode $800 tax-free threshold by AI splitting orders and parcels, thereby reducing the logistics costs of companies going abroad. However, considering that the US has announced the cancellation of the T86 customs clearance mode after May 2, this method may not achieve long-term tax avoidance effects. Against the backdrop of significant fluctuations in US tariff policies, the bank believes that the essence of the Dunhuang.com explosion incident reflects the strong demand of American consumers for high cost-effective products, and the traffic of cross-border e-commerce platforms is expected to continue to grow. Under tariff pressure, the cost advantages of online platforms are expected to be further highlighted. The imposition of tariffs may raise costs in the US retail system, and the bank continues to be optimistic about the relative advantages of cross-border e-commerce under inflation pressure: 1) On the demand side, price concerns are expected to further drive the increase in the online penetration rate in the US, with the seasonally adjusted online retail penetration rate in 4Q2024 being 16.4%, and inflation pressure may accelerate the shift of traffic to cheaper online channels; 2) The cost advantages of online platforms are expected to continue to expand, with fewer price adding processes in the online B2C model, and relatively less affected by core costs such as labor and rent, making the cost more advantageous in the inflation background; 3) From a supply chain perspective, online SKUs are more abundant, the flexibility advantage of the supply chain with "small orders and quick returns" is highlighted, and in the background of tariff policy fluctuations, the resilience of stocked inventory is higher, the iteration cycle is faster, and the product supply ability is stronger. Risk warning: Uncertainty risks in tariff policies; intensified competition risks in cross-border e-commerce; risks of significant decline in US consumer demand.