Just next Wednesday, the first wave of European and American economic data reflecting the impact of tariffs will be released.

Under the shadow of tariffs, the April Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) may reveal the first "scar" on the global economy. On April 2, according to CCTV news, the White House of the United States announced that Trump would impose a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries. Later on April 9 local time, the White House announced a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs on some countries. Currently, the market is temporarily calm, but the real "backlash" may be evident next Wednesday. On that day, the United States, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom will simultaneously release the preliminary values of the April manufacturing and services PMI, which are considered the first window to observe the extent of damage to enterprise and consumer confidence. Of particular interest is the input price index of the US manufacturing sector, which may reveal the cost transmission after tariffs are imposed. In the eurozone PMI, close attention will be paid to whether new export orders are beginning to weaken. Additionally, next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions, revealing the actual impact of uncertainty and tariff policies on regional economies. PMI and the Beige Book: Initial data reflecting tariff impacts With tariffs being implemented, market focus has shifted from short-term fluctuations to fundamental validation: are companies beginning to reduce investments? Is consumer confidence weakening? All of this will be visible in the PMI data. Especially noteworthy is the input price index in the US manufacturing PMI, which Standard & Poor's Global has called the "first stop" in measuring tariff inflation pressures. In March, this index rose to the fastest level in nearly two years, reflecting increased cost pressures on businesses. Analysts predict that amid the backdrop of the 10% import tariffs taking effect and the pending equivalence tariffs, the data for April may further increase. Although the market still generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, some institutions are cautious about this, precisely because of inflation concerns brought about by tariffs. A Danske Bank analyst pointed out, "This PMI report is crucial. In the current environment of heightened growth concerns, trade uncertainty may have suppressed new orders." In addition to PMI, the Federal Reserve will also release the Beige Book on economic conditions next Wednesday. This report will provide detailed survey materials on regional economies, helping outsiders understand the extent to which government policies and uncertainties are affecting business decisions. Furthermore, the US will continue to release a series of economic data, with new home sales for March on Wednesday and existing home sales, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims on Thursday, all helping to more comprehensively assess the real impact of trade tensions. In the eurozone, the preliminary values of PMI for France, Germany, and the entire eurozone will also be released next Wednesday. RBC pointed out that this will be the "first major test to assess the potential impact of Trump's tariff announcement on European growth", and will particularly focus on whether new export orders are beginning to weaken. Despite the temporary delay in equivalent tariffs between Europe and the United States, key products such as steel and cars still face high tariffs of 25%, and with unresolved trade tensions, business confidence may have already been eroded. The PMI data from the UK is also worth paying attention to, RBC stated, "The impact of earlier US tariffs on sentiment earlier this month cannot be ignored, but considering that the UK's services exports to the US are still tariff-free, direct impact may be relatively limited." This article is translated from "Wall Street View", authored by Fang Jiayao; GMTEight editor: Liu Xuan.