Clarkson Research: The current forecast predicts that the total number of new ship orders in 2025 will decrease by about 30% compared to the high levels in 2024.

Clarkson Research recently released its "Shipping and Shipbuilding Outlook" spring report. At the beginning of 2025, the pace of global new ship orders has slowed down, with the new shipbuilding market sentiment being affected by a series of more widespread geopolitical uncertainties (especially U.S. policies) and the sluggish performance of the shipping market. Clarkson Research has lowered its forecast for new ship orders for the full year of 2025, with the current forecast predicting a decrease of about 30% from the high level in 2024, with forecasts for major ship types being revised downwards. In terms of ship types, Clarkson Research remains optimistic about ship types with regional operational characteristics that are less affected by geopolitical influences. The overall market demand for roll-on/roll-off ships, passenger ships, and mail ships is stable and improving. In the mainstream ship types, there is still short-term demand for container ships and gas carriers for replacements and project requirements. However, Trump's latest tariff policy will further increase uncertainty. Clarkson Research remains optimistic about the long-term demand in the shipbuilding market. Currently, geopolitics takes precedence. However, in the long term, the green renewal of the fleet remains important. Indian Shipbuilding Industry: India aims to become one of the top ten shipbuilding countries in the world by 2030 and one of the top five by 2047. Currently, India's share in the global shipbuilding industry is relatively low. According to Clarkson Research, India's new ship deliveries from 2015 to 2024 only accounted for 0.1% of the global total gross tonnage. However, the Indian government has issued several shipbuilding stimulus policies, many Indian shipbuilding companies have started capacity expansion plans, and they have begun contacting South Korean shipbuilders and some liner companies for cooperation. Interestingly, in the current global shipbuilding country/region rankings, India ranks 19th, with the U.S. (18th) being the first target for India to surpass! However, even if India successfully enters the top five shipbuilding countries (equivalent to Vietnam's current position in the shipbuilding market), there is still an insurmountable gap with the three countries of China, South Korea, and Japan. In other words, unless the cluster effect of the shipbuilding industry is no longer significant, India may become a competitive player in the shipbuilding market. U.S. Shipbuilding Industry: According to Clarkson Research, U.S. shipyards account for only 0.2% of the global total tonnage in terms of orders held, and only five operating shipyards have the capability to build "large" commercial vessels. Currently, high new shipbuilding costs, shortage of skilled workers/labor, limited capacity facilities, etc., are not favorable for the development of the U.S. shipbuilding industry. In addition, the lack of recent experience in building commercial vessels is a disadvantage for the U.S. Clarkson Research database shows that the 49,000 deadweight tonnage product oil tanker "AMERICAN PHOENIX" is a "large" commercial vessel built in the U.S., but its delivery was delayed by 2 years from the original plan. The ship was finally delivered in 2012, four years after the contract was signed.