Stock price "halved"! Tesla, Inc.(TSLA.US) Q1 financial report may be a mix of joy and sorrow, can delivery guidance bring a turnaround?

There is less than a week until Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) releases its first quarter 2025 financial report. Investors are preparing for the mixed emotions of performance, as this electric car manufacturer continues to face challenges. The upcoming full-year car delivery guidance from Tesla, Inc. is highly anticipated. The market expects Tesla, Inc.'s Q1 revenue to increase slightly year-over-year to around $21.7 billion, but earnings per share are expected to decrease to around $0.43, lower than the $0.45 in the same period last year, and significantly lower than the $0.73 in the previous quarter. The profit decline is mainly attributed to a sharp decrease in car deliveries to 336,681 units in the quarter, the worst quarterly delivery performance for Tesla, Inc. in over two years. Production also declined, with only 362,000 cars produced, a 16% decrease from the previous year. The profitability of the core car business is expected to remain under pressure, due to factory equipment upgrades for the new Model Y, increased discounts, and incentive measures squeezing profit margins. The gross profit margin for car sales is expected to drop to around 15.8%, a significant decrease from the previous year and far below the long-term target of 25%. It is worth noting that the political activities of Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk and the negative brand effects that resulted are also reasons for the soft global demand and shrinking profit margins for Tesla, Inc., along with intensified competition, tariffs, and a slowdown in the adoption of electric vehicles. On a positive note, Tesla, Inc.'s energy production and storage business is expected to be a highlight, with strong demand for Megapack and Powerwall products. Revenue in this business is expected to grow significantly. News about new car models and the latest developments in Tesla's autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas could also cause a rebound in Tesla's stock price. So far this year, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has fallen by 37%, which is about 50% lower than its 52-week high. TipRanks data shows that overall, Wall Street analysts give Tesla, Inc. a "hold" rating with an average target price of $305.93, which is 20% higher than the current stock price level.