Tariffs linger persistently, and the regional chair of the Federal Reserve emphasizes once again the reluctance to cut interest rates.
09/04/2025
GMT Eight
As the threat of additional tariffs shakes the market again and investors bet on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, is calling for caution.
On Tuesday, Daly spoke at the University of California, Berkeley Haas School of Business, saying that the Fed is currently in a relatively favorable position and can choose to "stay put," avoiding overreacting to the "uncertainty" brought about by President Trump's proposals on trade and fiscal policy. "Drawing hasty conclusions in such uncertain times is likely to lead to mistakes."
These remarks come at a time when Wall Street's expectations for monetary policy and public statements from Fed officials are increasingly diverging. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently expecting four rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, despite recent inflation data showing mixed results. Fed chair Powell has also warned multiple times that the path to achieving price stability may not be smooth.
While Daly did not directly mention the market's rate cut expectations, her stance is clear: the Fed has no intention of passively reacting to market sentiment, much less changing policy direction based on news headlines. The goal remains to keep inflation around the 2% target.
Daly emphasized that the Fed's current policy stance is not overly tight, noting that the Fed cut rates by a total of one percent last year, giving them "time and room" for future actions. "We have built the capacity to move methodically and cautiously forward."
At the same time, investors are becoming increasingly uneasy about Trump's proposed series of tariff policies, fearing that these policies may raise prices, making the Fed's efforts to control inflation more complicated. Daly acknowledged the existence of this risk but also stated that the Fed does not yet have all the detailed information on the implementation of these policies.
"If these tariffs are comprehensive and immediately effective, that's one situation; but if they are limited in scope and phased in, that's another story," she pointed out. "We received some new information last week, but there's still some way to go before it's clear."
Daly also added that the Fed is closely monitoring the interactions between potential trade actions and other policies (such as taxation, regulation, and immigration) to thoroughly assess their net impact on economic growth and inflation.
Her speech reiterated the message conveyed by Fed officials in recent weeks that the current policy is in a "good place," with progress in inflation but still unstable. The Fed is unlikely to easily adjust its course due to short-term market fluctuations or policy uncertainties.
The Fed will release the minutes from its March policy meeting on Wednesday, and observers hope to see whether there are more internal disagreements within the Fed or if it remains as highly consistent as its public statements suggest.