Overnight US stocks | The three major stock indexes started strong but ended weak, with the Nasdaq experiencing a huge 8% swing. Both Apple and Tesla fell nearly 5%.

date
09/04/2025
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GMT Eight
On Tuesday, after a strong opening, the three major stock indexes continued to decline, with the Dow Jones falling 0.84%, the S&P 500 falling 1.57%, and the Nasdaq falling 2.15%, with amplitudes of 6.12%, 7.05%, and 8.1% respectively. A White House spokesperson announced an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods, bringing the total tax rate to 104%. The Canadian federal government announced retaliatory tariffs on cars imported from the United States starting this Wednesday. [US stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones fell 320.01 points, or 0.84%, to 37645.59 points; the Nasdaq fell 335.35 points, or 2.15%, to 15267.91 points; the S&P 500 fell 79.48 points, or 1.57%, to 4982.77 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell 1.3%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and Tesla, Inc. both fell nearly 5%. The "Trump Tariff Losers" index fell by 5.56%, continuing to decline throughout the day. Component stocks were all in retreat, with Helen of Troy Limited (HELE.US) falling by 14.08%, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG.US) by 8.6%, Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY.US) by 8.26%, Mattel, Inc. (MAT.US) by 6.91%, Hasbro, Inc. (HAS.US) by 4.63%, and Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR.US) by 4.31%. [European stocks] The German DAX30 index rose by 533.71 points, or 2.70%, to 20295.51 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 214.33 points, or 2.78%, to 7916.41 points; the French CAC40 index rose by 173.30 points, or 2.50%, to 7100.42 points; the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 123.54 points, or 2.65%, to 4779.95 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose by 297.60 points, or 2.53%, to 12081.00 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 819.02 points, or 2.49%, to 33673.00 points. [Asia-Pacific stock market] The Nikkei 225 index rose by more than 6%, the South Korean KOSPI index rose by 0.26%, and the Indonesian composite index fell by more than 8.4%. [Foreign exchange] The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.30% on the day, closing at 102.955 in the foreign exchange market. At the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.0951 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.0928 US dollars; 1 pound exchanged for 1.2790 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.2755 US dollars. 1 US dollar exchanged for 146.39 Japanese yen, lower than the previous trading day's 148.03 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8480 Swiss francs, lower than the previous trading day's 0.8572 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.4238 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.4200 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 10.0007 Swedish kronor, lower than the previous trading day's 10.0758 Swedish kronor. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by over 2.8%, to $76986.84, and Ethereum fell by over 5%, to $1474.25. [Metal] Spot gold fell by 0.05%, to $2981.66 per ounce, fluctuating high and then falling throughout the day, hitting a daily high of $3022.73 in Beijing at 21:18. COMEX gold futures rose by 0.75%, to $2996.00 per ounce, also hitting a daily high of $3037.90 at 21:18. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index fell by 0.91%, to 156.97 points, showing fluctuations throughout the day. [Crude oil] At the close on the 9th, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.12, to $59.58 per barrel, a decrease of 1.85%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery in London fell by $1.39, to $62.82 per barrel, a decrease of 2.16%. [Macro news] Federal Reserve official Daly: Policy is in a good position to maintain patience. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daly stated that the Fed can maintain patience before making any adjustments to interest rates, to observe the impact of changes in trade policy. "We lowered interest rates by 100 basis points last year. This puts policy in a good position, with both moderate restrictions to continue reducing inflation, and not overly tightening to make the economy fragile," Daly said. She said, "The current economic growth is good, and monetary policy is also in a good position, which allows us time and the ability to slowly and cautiously take action." Chicago Fed President: Tariffs much higher than expected, Fed cannot rely solely on hard data. Chicago Fed President Guinnsbee stated that policymakers may not be able to wait for the impact of tariffs on the economy to be reflected in government data before taking action, but should actively engage with companies to assess the impact in real time. He said, "We really can't wait until the end of the quarter and another month and find that investment has plummeted, GDP growth has slowed, layoffs, unemployment, and inflation have soared." JPMorgan model: Key stock index shows US recession probability close to 80%. JPMorgan stated that the stock market's digestion of the economic recession probability closely related to the US economy has soared to nearly 80%. At the same time, despite funding pressures potentially intensifying, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan's market-based economic recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which suffered heavy losses in the recent sell-off, currently reflects a recession probability of 79%. Other asset classes are also issuing warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a 62% probability of an economic downturn, basic metals show a probability of 68%, and the 5-year US Treasury bond corresponds to a 54% probability. In comparison, the economic recession probability absorbed by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, compared to zero in November last year.Canada announced that it will impose retaliatory tariffs on American cars starting on the 9th. The Canadian Ministry of Finance announced on the 8th that a 25% tariff on American cars will take effect at 12:01 am Eastern Time on the 9th. Canadian Finance Minister, Sean Pengfei, stated that Canada will continue to respond strongly to all unreasonable tariffs imposed by the US on Canada. The Canadian government is committed to quickly canceling these US tariffs to protect Canadian workers, businesses, economy, and industry. Pengfei said that Canada will also implement exemption programs for car manufacturers to encourage production and investment in Canada and help maintain Canadian employment opportunities. Bank of America Corp. customers made significant purchases last week during the sell-off in the US stock market. As the trade war led by US President Trump caused market turmoil, customers of Bank of America Corp. last week invested funds into the US stock market, marking the fourth highest amount in history. Strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote in a research report on Tuesday that during this period, there was a net inflow of $8 billion, making it the fourth largest weekly fund inflow based on data dating back to 2008, with institutional clients, retail investors, and hedge funds all being net buyers. Stock News American clothing company Levi Strauss & Co. Class A (LEVI.US) calls for clarity on tariffs, stating that any price increases will be a "surgical procedure." American clothing company Levi Strauss & Co. Class A stated that with high tariffs imposed by Trump looming, businesses and consumers are seeking certainty. "The number one thing that everyone is grappling with, ourselves included, our entire industry, but most importantly, our consumers, everyone is grappling with uncertainty. We need some clarity," said Michelle Gas, CEO of Levi Strauss & Co. Class A. Earlier today, this denim retailer released its first-quarter results and maintained its earnings and sales outlook for the year. Levi Strauss & Co. Class A did not incorporate the impact of new tariffs into its performance guidance. She stated during the company's earnings conference call that any price increase made by the company to offset tariffs would be a "surgical" one. Bank of America Corp.: The decline in Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) stock price presents a buying opportunity. Bank of America Corp. analysts stated that the recent weakness in Apple Inc.'s stock price is forming an "enhanced buying opportunity" as the risk profile leans towards the positive at this valuation level. The stock has fallen nearly 30% from its December high, with the largest three-day decline since 2001. Analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote that historically, after similar valuation multiple compression events, the risk-return for the stock is "favorable" over the next few months.

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