CMSC: Seasonal decline in pig prices, with a slight increase in February sow production compared to the previous month.

CMSC released a research report stating that according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Bureau of Statistics, the national sow production capacity increased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month in February. It is expected that in the medium term, sow production capacity may overall maintain a weak trend of digestion. The supply pressure on the industry side in February was lower than expected, and the price difference of standard fat guided the industry supply after the fact. The pig price showed a seasonal weakening trend, but was overall stronger than market expectations. The industry is still in a period of capacity release, and pork consumption is weak in the first half of the year, so it is expected that pig prices may be under pressure overall, and sow production capacity may maintain a weak digestion trend. Considering the limited increase in pig supply in 2025, the industry's cost variance is large. High-quality pig enterprises may still achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets. CMSC's main points are as follows: - Seasonal decline in pig prices, slight increase in sow production capacity - From the perspective of pig prices, pork consumption has entered the off-season, and pig prices have shown a seasonal weakening trend. However, the industry supply pressure after the Spring Festival was lower than expected, and the standard fat price difference guided the industry supply after the fact. Overall, pig prices in February were stronger than market expectations. In addition, the prices of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn rose significantly, leading to a rebound in feed prices and a marginal narrowing of profits in pig farming. In terms of production capacity, the industry is still making small profits, and large pig enterprises are continuously improving their capacity utilization to reduce breeding costs. The industry's expectations for future pig prices are cautious, and the enthusiasm for replenishing piglets is weak. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Bureau of Statistics, the national sow production capacity increased slightly by 0.1% in February. It is expected that in the medium term, sow production capacity may overall maintain a weak trend of digestion.