Cui Dongshu: The export of cars will reach a very high level by 2025, while the export of lithium-ion batteries will basically remain stable at a monthly level of $5 billion.

On April 20th, the Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Cui Dongshu, posted an article on his personal public account stating that data shows that by 2025, China's import and export scale will be stable with growth, and the quality of development will be improved, with export growth slowing compared to previous years. In 2025, the export of automobiles reached a record high level, and automobile components also reached a historical high level, both experiencing a strong surge, with motorbike exports showing strong growth. The export of lithium-ion batteries this year has remained stable at around $5 billion per month, compared to the continuous rise last year. Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data for the first quarter of 2025. The data shows that by 2025, China's import and export scale will be stable with growth, and the quality of development will be improved, with export growth slowing compared to previous years. However, it is important to note that despite the high base, exports have reached new highs, not only achieving reasonable growth in volume but also maintaining overall stability in market share. This reflects strong resilience and comprehensive competitiveness in terms of growth momentum and regional distribution. Product competitiveness is consolidated, and export momentum is vibrant. 1. Explosive growth in China's commodity trade exports China's trade exports have experienced explosive growth over the past 40 years, from $22 billion in 1981 to $3.577 trillion in 2024, showing a positive trend of explosive growth. Despite many challenges, the trend of China's exports over the past three years affected by the pandemic has been extremely positive, providing good support to the national economy and promoting the normal material needs of people around the world as well as employment and income growth for domestic citizens. The surge in China's exports has led to a super strong growth in world maritime trade, with the shipbuilding boom continuing. In particular, China's trade surplus in imports and exports has shown strong growth, from a continued trade deficit in 1980 to a trade surplus since 1994, reaching a high trade surplus of $991.8 billion in 2025, demonstrating China's strong export performance. 2. Trend of China's commodity trade exports China's commodity trade exports have shown overall stability in 2025, especially in March, when China's export trade performed relatively strongly, reaching a high level of $313.9 billion in March, which, compared to trends since 2020, clearly indicates a stable trend at high levels. In January 2025, exports reached a good level of $324.7 billion. Overall, China's commodity exports in 2025 show signs of stable and strong growth. 3. Performance of China's exports to major regions China's trade exports to foreign countries have shown a super strong growth trend in recent years. In the first quarter of 2023, there was a $3.6 billion increase, which was already significant, and in the first quarter of 2024, it increased by $12 billion. In the first quarter of 2025, exports reached a high level of $853.7 billion. In 2025, China had significant surpluses with European and American countries, with a $76.6 billion surplus with the United States, $67.7 billion with Hong Kong, and surpluses of over $20 billion with India and Vietnam. Despite various factors affecting world demand, the overall performance of China's exports in 2025 remains excellent. 4. Overall recovery of China-US trade China's exports to the United States have shown a super strong growth trend since President Biden took office in 2021, with exports increasing from $452.1 billion in 2020 to $581.6 billion in 2022, showing a strong growth trend. From the perspective of trade surplus, it has maintained a strong annual trend of over $300 billion in recent years, with the surplus in the first quarter of this year also on track to exceed $300 billion. 5. Extremely outstanding performance of automobile exports China's main export commodities are machinery and electronic products, with strong growth in high-tech products such as electronic components and technologies. In terms of individual product performance, while there was a slight decline in the high level of smartphone exports in the first quarter of 2022, it remained at a good level in 2025, with automobile exports reaching a record high level in 2025. Additionally, the export of automobile components also reached a historical high level, showing a strong surge, with strong growth in motorbike exports. 6. Export of lithium-ion batteries Lithium batteries, as an important product of the new generation, have excellent export performance with high profits and a good market. Since President Biden took office in 2020, the export performance of lithium batteries in China has been relatively excellent. In 2020, exports were only $15.9 billion, but by 2021, they reached $28.4 billion, and $50.9 billion in 2022. In 2023, they reached a super high level of $64.9 billion, but there was a corresponding slowdown in growth in 2024. This year, the export of lithium-ion batteries has remained stable at around $5 billion per month, compared to the continuous upward trend last year. 7. Trends in the export of CECEP Solar Energy batteries CECEP Solar Energy batteries, as important products of the new generation, have shown significant fluctuations in their export performance, with serious industry challenges. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, CECEP Solar Energy batteries showed a surge in growth. In 2020, the overall trend was relatively stable, but in 2021, there was a clear upward trend, followed by a strong surge in 2022, reaching $92.8 billion. However, in 2023, as the overall energy situation stabilized, exports of CECEP Solar Energy batteries gradually decreased to $87.6 billion. In 2024, they dropped further to $61.2 billion, continuing this downward trend in 2025. 8. Trends in automobile exports In recent years, automobile exports have shown excellent performance from the export perspective, with a super strong growth trend. In 2021, exports were at $3The 45 billion US dollars increased to 117.4 billion US dollars by 2024, forming an explosive growth trend, and still maintaining a small monthly growth characteristic in 2025.In the new three types, only the phenomenon of the first quarter of the car hitting a historic high, shows that the Chinese automotive industry is very dynamic. 9. Trends in Automotive Parts Exports Automotive parts and complete vehicles are completely different systems, facing completely different markets, so there is a big difference in growth rates. Complete vehicles do not go to the United States, while automotive parts mainly target the US market. China's automotive parts achieved a very high export volume early on, but with a lower growth rate.