In March, the heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 105,000 vehicles, an increase of 29% month-on-month.

According to the preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in March 2025, China's heavy truck market sold a total of around 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), an increase of 29% compared to February this year, and a decrease of about 9% compared to the same period last year when it was 116,000 units. In the heavy truck market in March 2025, there is both good news and bad news. On one hand, the sales of electric heavy trucks continue to grow significantly, achieving consecutive substantial increases; on the other hand, due to the overall weakness in domestic demand, wholesale sales, retail sales, and natural gas heavy truck sales all saw a year-on-year decline. Compared to the past eight years, the 105,000 units in March are only higher than the sales in March 2022, and lower than the sales in other years in March, indicating that the "quality" of the heavy truck market in March this year is not high. Cumulatively, from January to March this year, China's heavy truck market achieved a cumulative sales volume of about 259,000 units, a 5% year-on-year decrease. The analysis from the First Commercial Vehicle Network shows that the development momentum of the heavy-duty truck industry in March this year weakened, showing several characteristics in the market. Firstly, the prosperity of the road freight market in the traditional peak season was not as expected in March, with long-standing issues such as oversupply of vehicles and low freight rates not improving, and in fact, in many regions, the freight rates even decreased month-on-month (worse than in February). In this environment, the lack of momentum in terminal user demand for buying trucks is inevitable, and is also a helpless move for users to avoid risks and seek survival. Looking at the terminal situation, the domestic heavy truck retail sales in March are expected to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, but increase by over 50% month-on-month - as it is a year-on-year decrease, the overall performance is not ideal. Additionally, the year-on-year decline in domestic retail sales also dragged down the performance of wholesales in the heavy truck industry, leading to a 9% year-on-year decrease, indicating that various manufacturers are relatively cautious about "increasing inventory" and not being too aggressive. Furthermore, the policy observation led to a decrease in terminal demand in the heavy truck market, and the sales of natural gas heavy trucks in the subdivided area were also below expectations. Even though the retail price of LNG for vehicles in March remains at a low level, with a unit price difference of 2.5-3 yuan between oil and gas, which is advantageous for purchasing LNG heavy trucks. However, in March, due to the decrease in freight rates, the enthusiasm of users to purchase gas-powered vehicles was affected; coupled with the fact that the sales of gas vehicles in the same period last year reached a historical high value (almost 30,000 units monthly), the sales of natural gas heavy trucks in March this year did not reach a new high, but showed a year-on-year decline, with an expected 25% month-on-month increase and a 24% year-on-year decrease, with a penetration rate of around 30%. The rapid year-on-year growth momentum of the natural gas heavy truck market from December last year to February this year also came to a halt, with many users waiting for the implementation of the subsidy policy for exchanging old for new vehicles - which also caused a short-term setback in the natural gas heavy truck market to some extent. On the other hand, electric heavy trucks continue to be favored, with extremely low operating costs and high expected returns, continuing to sell well in the mid-short distance freight markets such as coal, steel, sand, gravel, cement, earthwork, mixing, and ports. It is estimated that the sales of new energy heavy trucks in March will increase by 1.6 times year-on-year, creating a new high in sales in this segmented area, with an industry penetration rate of around 19%. Additionally, due to the rapid decline in demand in the Russian heavy truck market, China's heavy truck export sales in March 2025 also experienced a single-digit year-on-year decline. Second Quarter: The Future of National IV Trucks Turning in for the Future Although the first quarter of the heavy truck market ended with a "decline," the market trend in the second and even third quarters still holds expectations. Especially with the policy of exchanging old for new National IV trucks, it will become the important core DRIVE of the future heavy truck market. On March 18, 2025, three ministries (Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance) jointly issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Scrap and Renewal of Old Operating Trucks" (also known as the policy of exchanging old for new trucks), speeding up the scrapping of old, high-energy consumption, and high-emission trucks, and providing subsidies for the scrapping and renewal of old operating trucks. The "Notice" clearly supports the renewal of National III and National IV emission standard operating trucks, accelerating the renewal of a batch of high-standard, low-emission operating trucks. For the early scrapping of old operating trucks, scrapping and renewal to purchase National VI emission standard trucks or new energy trucks, and only purchasing eligible new energy trucks, differentiated subsidy standards will be implemented based on the type of scrapped vehicles, the time of early scrapping, and the power type of the newly purchased vehicles. Compared to the 2024 version of the policy on the scrapping and renewal of old operating trucks, the biggest change in the 2025 version of the policy of exchanging old for new trucks is the deletion of the word "diesel" from the range of scrapped and renewed trucks, which means that subsidies for scrapping and new purchase cover natural gas heavy trucks. This undoubtedly brings a huge advantage to the natural gas heavy truck market. Natural gas heavy trucks will see further explosive growth on the basis of the surge in sales in previous years, with annual sales expected to reach a new record high of 250,000-300,000 units. According to information previously obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, before January to March 18 this year, the exchange of old for new trucks in most regions did not substantially kick off due to waiting for the policy documents from the Ministry of Transport and other three departments to be issued. Therefore, after the release of the "318" policy, the speed of the implementation of the "National IV truck exchange old for new" in various regions will significantly accelerate, with effects seen as early as April and in May, the second quarter of the heavy truck market will show a more evident year-on-year growth trend due to the stimulation and promotion of policies. Especially with the inclusion of natural gas heavy trucks in the subsidy scope, many National IV truck users who are wavering between "buying a used car" and "buying a new car" are likely to eventually lean towards "purchasing a new natural gas vehicle." Therefore, the overall performance of the heavy truck market in the second quarter and the second half of the year is still promising.