Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Real estate loan growth rate rebounds, industry overall moving towards stabilizing after hitting bottom, it is time to watch for opportunities on the left side (with concept stocks)

On July 22, the People's Bank of China released the statistical report on the loan allocation of financial institutions for the second quarter of 2025. By the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year, with an increase of 416.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year. By the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 292.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with an increase of 51 billion yuan in the first half of the year. Related concept stocks: CHINA VANKE (02202), CHINA RES LAND (01109), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123), CHINA JINMAO (00817). On July 15, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that it is important to note that the sales area and prices of real estate are still declining year-on-year. The bottoming out and transformation of the real estate industry is a process, and it is a normal phenomenon that needs to be advanced with greater strength. Sheng Laiyun pointed out that according to statistical data, the real estate market is overall moving towards stabilization. Although prices of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have fluctuated, the overall decline has narrowed. The sources of funding in the real estate market have also improved, and the debt financing work of real estate enterprises has been orderly conducted. Real estate inventory has decreased for four consecutive months. Recently, the research group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development visited Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces to conduct research. The research group stated that promoting the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market is of great significance. Local authorities should take on their responsibilities and fully utilize the autonomy of real estate regulation policies, implementing targeted and precise measures according to local conditions to enhance the systematic effectiveness of policy implementation and continuously consolidate the stable situation in the real estate market. The research group emphasized the need to accelerate the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses" to meet the new expectations of the people. It is necessary to take multiple measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and resolve risks to more vigorously promote the real estate market to stabilize and rebound. In addition, the debt restructuring of real estate enterprises has been accelerating recently. According to statistics from the China Index Institute, as of now, more than 14 real estate enterprises, including R&F Properties, Agile, Zhongliang, Contemporary, Jiayuan, Aoyuan, Jinlun Tiandi, Yuzhou, Yuanyang, Times China, Greenland, Jinko, and Xiexin Yuanchuang, have obtained approval for debt restructuring or reorganization. In addition, real estate companies such as Jinlun Tiandi and R&F Properties have basically received approval for the overseas debt restructuring and will proceed to hearings. Debt restructuring is a key step for troubled real estate companies to "rescue" themselves. It is worth noting that only 20 days have passed since the announcement of the domestic debt restructuring proposal on June 20, and Long Guang has already completed the second round of domestic debt restructuring. Real estate belongs to the level of large-scale consumption. The current situation is to stimulate investment through hydropower stations first, then stimulate the economy, and when the economy picks up, it is expected to drive real estate consumption. The rebound in real estate loan growth rates indicates that capital has seen hope. The interest rate spread between China's 5-year and 1-year Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) turned positive last Friday, which is also evidence. The State Council is also actively stating that it wants to stimulate the real estate market. From the perspective of trading on the left, real estate has reached a period of lurking. Zhongtai's research report indicates that the sales of existing houses will have a long-term impact on the development of the real estate industry and the operating model of real estate enterprises. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of local policies and specific supporting policies. It continues to be optimistic about the medium to long-term investment opportunities in the real estate sector and recommends focusing on real estate enterprises in first and second-tier cities with stable fundamentals and high safety margins; in the Hong Kong stock market, focus on leading companies with valuation advantages and resilience. Huaan believes that under the policy demand for "stabilizing and rebounding," and with the upcoming meeting of the Central Political Bureau at the end of July, there is an expectation of further loosening of real estate control policies. Therefore, real estate stocks are currently experiencing a wave of phase valuation repair opportunities, predicting that there is still about 5%-15% upside potential for the absolute returns of the real estate sector. Related concept stocks: CHINA VANKE (02202): Vanke's previous first-quarter report showed that with strong support from all parties and major shareholders, the company actively implemented a "comprehensive" plan to promote reform, resolve risks, and achieve revenue of nearly 38 billion yuan, sales of nearly 35 billion yuan, a repayment rate of over 100%, completion of over 10,000 high-quality delivered houses, on-time repayment of the first-quarter public bonds, completion of large transactions totaling 3.8 billion yuan, and reactivation of over 4 billion yuan in repayments. CHINA RES LAND (01109): China Res Land announced that in June 2025, the group achieved a total contract sales amount of approximately 23.45 billion yuan, with a total contract sales area of about 897,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% and 27.1%, respectively. For the first half of 2025, total cumulative contract sales amounted to approximately 110.30 billion yuan, with a total contract sales area of about 4.119 million square meters, decreasing by 11.6% and 21.0% year-on-year. YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123): Yuexiu Property announced that from January to June 2025, the company's cumulative contract sales (including joint projects with cooperative and joint venture companies) amounted to approximately 61.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative contract sales area of about 1.4621 million square meters, a decrease of about 22.2% year-on-year. The cumulative contract sales amount accounted for 51.0% of the 2025 contract sales target of 120.5 billion yuan. CHINA JINMAO (00817): China Jinmao announced that in June 2025, the group achieved a signing sales amount of 15.6 billion yuan, an increase of 17.29% year-on-year; the signing sales area was about 647,700 square meters.