CMSC: Sodium battery costs approaching iron lithium, explosion of multi-scene applications imminent

CMSC released a research report stating that in recent years, sodium-ion battery technology has made breakthrough progress, with costs rapidly decreasing from 0.8 yuan/Wh in 2023 to about 0.45 yuan/Wh, while energy density has increased and application scenarios are expanding. In the power sector, companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology and Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co., Ltd. have promoted sodium batteries for batch matching with A0/A00 grade and hybrid vehicle models. With significant advantages in low-temperature performance, sodium batteries are gradually replacing lead-acid batteries in the two-wheeler market. In energy storage, the cycling life of the polyanion route has exceeded 8000 cycles, and projects with a capacity of hundreds of MWh have been gradually implemented. Although there is still room for optimization in materials and processes, with the maturation of technologies such as layered oxides and hard carbon, sodium batteries are expected to scale up in various fields such as power, energy storage, and commercial vehicles, ushering in an investment window for the industry chain. The main points of view of CMSC are as follows: In recent years, sodium-ion battery costs have rapidly decreased, energy density has increased significantly, and its application scenarios and scale are continuously expanding. Looking at the end-use scenarios, based on considerations of low-temperature performance and cost, whole vehicles have started to use sodium batteries in A0/A00 vehicle models and are expanding to hybrid vehicle models. In the two-wheeler market, sodium batteries have safety and cost advantages over lithium batteries, and several companies have released sodium battery two-wheeler models in 2024, gradually replacing some lead-acid batteries. In the field of energy storage, sodium batteries have transitioned from household energy storage to large-scale energy storage applications. The bank analyzed that sodium-ion batteries are expected to gradually move towards large-scale applications in various markets such as power and energy storage. Significant technological progress In recent years, mainstream manufacturers have made significant progress in product technological indicators, with notable improvements in energy density and cycle numbers. For example, in terms of power, the second-generation sodium battery products of Contemporary Amperex Technology have an energy density exceeding 200Wh/kg, and Yadea's extreme sodium battery has a cycling life of 1500 cycles; in terms of energy storage, Haichen sodium energy storage products have a cycling life of over 20,000 cycles, and the capacity retention rate under 10C discharge rate remains at 85%. In terms of technological routes, through continuous iteration, the application trends of layered oxides, polyanion, and other positive electrode materials in different scenarios have become clearer, and hard carbon has also gradually become a mainstream route, while the sodium-ion route without a negative electrode is also under exploration. Currently, sodium-ion battery prices have generally dropped to around 0.45 yuan/Wh, gradually approaching lithium iron phosphate, with significant potential for further cost reduction in theory. Sodium batteries are starting to be used in batch applications in hybrid and A0/A00 vehicles Hybrid and A0/A00 pure electric vehicles have a relatively short range, and suffer significant discounts under low temperature conditions. Sodium batteries effectively enhance the battery's performance at low temperatures and are expected to become cost-competitive in the future. Since 2024, battery manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology and Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co., Ltd. have successively launched products using sodium batteries, with significant improvements in low-temperature performance. It is expected that the application of sodium batteries in the power sector will further expand by 2025, with the possibility of more vehicle models using high-energy density sodium batteries. At the same time, the promotion of two-wheelers will also be more in line with the requirements of the new national standards. Furthermore, in fields such as emergency power supply, commercial vehicles, and construction machinery, sodium batteries with their excellent rate performance may also find application. Polyanion sodium batteries are expected to be applied in the energy storage market Low cost and high safety have always been the main directions pursued in the energy storage field. The polyanion route represented by composite iron sodium phosphate has increased the cycling life of sodium batteries to over 8000 cycles, and its theoretical potential for cost reduction is significant. Currently, sodium battery energy storage has reached the level of hundreds of MWh, and with the advancement of demonstration projects and the development of the sodium battery industry, the future usage points may expand. There is still room for cost reduction The price of sodium batteries has decreased significantly, from 0.8 yuan/Wh in 2023 to about 0.45 yuan/Wh. The sodium battery industry is in a development stage, and economies of scale have not yet fully materialized. At the same time, the long cycling life of positive electrode materials remains a challenge in large-scale production, and positive electrodes, negative electrodes, separators, and electrolytes are all undergoing rapid iteration and optimization. Overall, there may be significant progress in both materials and processes. Risk warning: Sodium battery technology upgrades and promotions may fall below expectations, and cost reductions may be lower than expected.