Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Blackstone (BX.US) being driven by multiple sectors to navigate through bull and bear markets, and reiterates its "buy" rating.

Morgan Stanley's latest research report reiterated a "buy" rating for Blackstone Inc. (BX.US), with a target stock price of $150. This research report, based on in-depth industry insights, revealed the core strengths of the world's largest alternative asset management giant in turbulent markets, while also warning investors to be cautious of potential risks. Performance exceeded expectations, financial position strong and resilient Blackstone's first quarter financial report for 2025 showed an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, surpassing Morgan Stanley's expected $1.06 and the market consensus of $1.08. This performance advantage was mainly attributed to management fees, related income from management fees, and excellent performance in fundraising and investment deployment. Based on the closing price of $129.38 as of April 16, 2025, Morgan Stanley assigned a target price of $150 to Blackstone and maintained a "buy" rating, reflecting strong confidence in its future stock performance. As of the first quarter, Blackstone had $180 billion of dry powder, which is equivalent to 15.4% of its assets under management. These funds have not been invested in specific projects or assets yet, remaining idle but with potential investment value. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed out that this strategic reserve enables Blackstone to have the ability to "accurately target the market dislocation period" - when asset prices fall irrationally due to fluctuations, the huge liquidity can quickly be transformed into investment advantage. Blackstone's assets under management (AUM) reached $116.8 billion in 2024, with a broad mix in private equity (31%), real estate (28%), hedge fund solutions (7%), and credit and insurance (33%) sectors. In 2024, it achieved revenue of $7.6 billion and pre-tax distributable earnings of $6.7 billion, demonstrating its outstanding profitability and stable financial foundation. Precise strategic layout, synergy across multiple business segments Blackstone's business segments show strong growth momentum and synergy. The real estate segment has $320 billion in AUM, accounting for 32% of the pre-tax earnings in 2024, with diverse strategies such as global opportunistic real estate strategies and opportunistic real estate strategies focused on Europe and Asia providing strong support for revenue. The private equity segment, with $371 billion in AUM, contributed 39% of the pre-tax earnings in 2024, covering various strategies such as corporate private equity, special situations (tactical opportunities), infrastructure energy transformation, etc., covering a wide range of market sectors and investment stages. The credit and insurance segment's AUM reached $389 billion, accounting for 21% of the pre-tax earnings in 2024, including Blackstone Credit (formerly GSO Capital Partners) and Blackstone Insurance Solutions, with strong performance in leveraged debt, senior credit focus, distressed debt mezzanine, and general credit fields, injecting stable strength into Blackstone's overall earnings. The multi-asset investment segment (BXMA) contributed 8% of the pre-tax earnings in 2024, with $88 billion in AUM, covering a wide range of mutual funds, hedge funds, and customized solutions/vehicles to meet the diverse needs of investors. Private wealth management has become a bright spot for Blackstone's growth. In the first quarter of 2025, this business raised $11 billion, a 40% increase year-on-year, reaching the highest level in nearly three years. Despite the current macroeconomic fluctuations, there are no signs of growth slowdown in the second quarter of 2025. Various products have performed well, with BCRED raising $3.8 billion, BXPE raising funds from $25 billion to over $100 billion in just 5 quarters, BXINFRA raising $1.6 billion in the first quarter, and BREIT achieving the best quarterly return in 18 months in the first quarter of 2025 (+1.9%), with an annualized net return rate of 20.7% since inception, which is twice as much as public REITs. These achievements highlight investors' high recognition and positive investment intentions in Blackstone's private wealth management business. Market outlook and risk assessment Morgan Stanley's research report points out that despite the current macroeconomic uncertainties, Blackstone, with its strong brand influence and robust management of company assets, can effectively respond to market fluctuations and capture investment opportunities. Blackstone expects investment-grade private credit to continue to be a key growth catalyst, with its business growing by 35% year-on-year to $107 billion in AUM in 2025. However, the report also cautions investors to pay attention to potential risks, including market volatility triggered by interest rates that could have adverse effects on investment portfolios, as well as increasing regulatory scrutiny on the private equity business model. In addition, policy-driven uncertainties may cause some disruption in short-term investment exits and fundraising activities. Summary Overall, Morgan Stanley reiterated a "buy" rating for Blackstone, giving a target price of $150 based on a 2026 P/E ratio of 26 (corresponding to earnings per share of $6.21), representing a potential increase of 16% compared to the current stock price of $129.38. In terms of valuation logic, Blackstone's valuation revaluation trend is evident, with an increasing proportion of perpetual capital driving the P/E ratio gradually closer to competitors dominated by management fees. This change not only reflects market recognition of Blackstone's business model but also suggests that its valuation level is expected to further increase. Analyses of the market situation show that Blackstone has theFeatures of being both offensive and defensive. If the macroeconomic situation improves, in a bull market scenario, it is expected that the earnings per share in 2026 will reach $8.58, with a target price potential of up to $220. In a bear market scenario, that is, in the case of deep economic recession, Blackstone's downside risk is relatively limited, with a target price of $57, corresponding to a 14 times price-to-earnings ratio, demonstrating its resilience in different market environments.Je vais aller au parc pour faire du jogging.