Guosen Securities Research: The central price of gold in the second and third quarters may rise again with the expansion of U.S. government debt.

Industrial Research released a research report pointing out that the core logic of gold rise - the US dollar credit problem is still continuing, and there may even be a further strengthening trend. A rapid adjustment of 5-8% in gold occurred at the beginning of April, and the probability of a significant adjustment is still low in the absence of further liquidity shocks. The "opportunity but not demand" buying point for gold is likely to remain normal. In the medium term, both trading contraction and trading stagflation are favorable for gold. At the same time, considering that the US Treasury funds will run out from June to August this year, the US Congress may raise the debt ceiling before then. Therefore, the central price of gold in the second and third quarters of this year may rise again with the expansion of US government debt. The pullback of gold at the beginning of April was mainly triggered by technical selling and margin replenishment demand, leading to the expected adjustment of gold. London gold adjusted by over 5% at the lowest point in early April, touching 2956 US dollars per ounce. In the past 100 days, London gold has risen by 25%, exceeding 2 standard deviations since 2006. Looking back at history, London gold has exceeded 30% in the rolling 100-day gain in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2020, with the highest reaching 45%. In the 1970s and 1980s, there were situations where the rolling 100-day gain exceeded 100%. Under the current situation of the rise, gold may continue to rise in the short term or have a small adjustment.