Apple Inc.'s supply chain "golden bell" breaks the deadlock in the trade war, Evercore supports a target price of $250.

At a time when the smoke of the US-China trade war is rising again, the Wall Street investment bank Evercore has maintained its "outperform" rating on Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and a target price of $250, with its core logic pointing to the tech giant's resilient supply chain and strong bargaining power. The team led by star analyst Amit Daryanani pointed out that the "supply chain moat" built by Apple Inc. in recent years will be a key line of defense against tariff impacts. The report reveals four major strategies to withstand the impact: first, diversifying production risks through a dual engine in India and Vietnam. Currently, India has the capacity to meet 35% of iPhone/iPad demand, while Vietnam accounts for half of the wearable devices and Mac production capacity; second, maintaining the ability to transfer costs to suppliers. If tariffs are fully imposed, Apple Inc. can offset cost pressures through price increases and supply chain sharing mechanisms; third, utilizing existing exemption policy windows, the report specifically mentions that the US's $500 billion investment plan in sectors such as semiconductors may extend tariff exemptions; fourth, maintaining the core position of the Chinese supply chain. Despite escalating political risks, the report calculates that even facing a 50% global benchmark tariff, relocating iPhone production lines back to the US would lead to manufacturing costs increasing by over 50%. It is worth noting that Apple Inc. occupies a core position in the US market, with 37% of sales (approximately 85 million iPhones) even though it initially enjoyed a 100% tariff exemption. This forces the company to accelerate the restructuring of its supply chain amidst the backdrop of an escalating trade warmeeting 35% of iPhone and iPad demand in India while the remaining capacity remains anchored in China. The Daryanani team warns that if the US government includes electronic products in the Section 232 investigation, the existing supply chain layout will face a new test, but emphasizes that the combination of "diversification + cost sharing" can still minimize the impact to a maximum extent. This supply chain dilemma spanning three continents not only reflects the depth of global tech industry interdependence but also highlights Apple Inc.'s strategic maneuvering space as a leading consumer electronics company. As the strategic game between Washington and Beijing continues to heat up, whether the supply chain giant steered by Cook can smoothly navigate through the tariff minefield has become a touchstone to test its global operational wisdom.