Progress made in Sino-US trade negotiations, emerging market stocks rising.
17/04/2025
GMT Eight
With some progress in the trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, emerging market stocks followed the global market's rise. Data shows that the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index rose by 0.7%; the index has risen by 2.1% so far this week, potentially setting the best single-week performance in a month.
On Wednesday local time, US President Trump unexpectedly participated personally in the trade talks with Japanese officials, stating that there have been "significant progress" in the negotiations. Trump posted on social media, "Honored to have just met with the Japanese trade delegation. Made significant progress!"
The trade negotiations between Japan and the United States took place in Washington on Wednesday local time. However, the specific details of the discussions between US and Japanese officials are not clear. Japan's negotiating representative and Minister of Economic Revitalization, Ryosei Akazawa, originally hoped to limit the scope of the discussions to the areas of trade and investment. But earlier on Wednesday, Trump stated that he would also be involved in the negotiations and raised some issues, including how much Tokyo pays for the US troops stationed in Japan - the largest overseas deployment of US troops.
There were previous reports indicating that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also wanted to discuss the thorny issue of exchange rates with Japan. Trump has long complained about the trade deficits the US has with countries like Japan, alleging that other countries deliberately weaken their currencies to put American companies at a disadvantage. However, Akazawa stated that he did not discuss exchange rates with Trump and other US officials. He added that this issue should be handled by Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and Mnuchin. It is reported that a meeting between Katsunobu Kato and Mnuchin could possibly take place as early as during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting next week.
In terms of emerging markets, the Central Bank of Turkey and the Central Bank of Egypt will both announce their interest rate decisions. Most economists expect the Central Bank of Turkey to maintain its key rate at 42.5%. Some predict that the Central Bank of Turkey will raise interest rates or increase the upper limit of the interest rate range to tighten the financing environment. Tatha Ghose, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, stated, "Observing whether the measures taken by the Central Bank of Turkey today demonstrate appropriate caution, or sound complacent thinking that the situation is well under control." In addition, the Central Bank of Egypt is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in five years, with the expected rate cut ranging between 75 and 225 basis points, reflecting the unpredictability brought by US tariff policies.