Western: March transaction volume continued to improve year-on-year, pay attention to the subsequent trend of transaction volume and price.

Western released a research report stating that sales area continued to rebound in March, with the year-on-year growth rate narrowing and the month-on-month growth increasing. Sales prices increased year-on-year while decreasing slightly month-on-month. The mild release of market heat in the early spring season, entering the latter half of the hot sales period in late April, requires attention to the subsequent volume and price trends. New construction and completion improved year-on-year, while real estate investment and funding saw a slight expansion in the decline, under the absence of national policy stimulus. In March, the industry indicators overall continued the trend of year-on-year improvement and stable progress. After April, it will gradually enter the off-season for sales, combined with recent external changes potentially leading to a decrease in month-on-month sales in the real estate market. On the other hand, as a discretionary consumption, the potential demand for real estate still has room for further release, providing momentum for expanding domestic demand. Expectations are raised for the introduction of a new round of policies. Key points from Western: - In March, the year-on-year sales area decreased by 0.6%, with a slight reduction in decline and a moderate upward trend in transaction volume. - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the year-on-year residential sales area decreased by 0.6%, with an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.7%; the year-to-date comparison for January to March decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Regarding sales amount, the year-on-year sales amount for residential properties in March decreased by 0.4%, with the same growth rate as the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%; the year-to-date comparison for January to March decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the same decline as the previous month; overall, sales remained on a mild recovery trend in March, with transaction volume recovering compared to the previous month. - The year-on-year residential sales price in March increased by 0.2%. - Calculations show that the national average residential property price in March was 9923 yuan per square meter, an increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate decreased by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%. The residential sales price in March continued to grow year-on-year, with a slight decrease month-on-month. After April, the sales market will gradually enter the off-season, requiring attention to the subsequent price trends. - Year-on-year reductions in new construction and completion decreased, while year-on-year declines in real estate investment increased. - In March, the industry's development investment decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month. New construction decreased by 18.1% year-on-year in the same month, with a reduction in decline by 11.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; in absolute terms, the new construction this month was 63.82 million square meters, which is 57.5% of the monthly average level for March in the past 3 years. Completion was down by 11.5% year-on-year, with a reduction in decline by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; in absolute terms, the completion this month was 42.96 million square meters, which is 81.4% of the monthly average level for March in the past 3 years. - The year-on-year decline in funds in place increased. - In March, funds in place decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a 0.3 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month. The year-to-date comparison for January to March saw a 3.7% decrease year-on-year, with a 0.1 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month. Deposits and prepayments in March decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with a 0.5 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month; individual mortgage loans decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with a 12.0 percentage point decrease compared to the previous month; domestic loans increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with an 11.5 percentage point increase compared to the previous month; self-raised funds decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, with an 8.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month. Risks: The risk that the effectiveness of real estate policy control may not meet expectations; the risk that the recovery of commercial housing sales may not meet expectations; the risk of developer funding chain easing not meeting expectations.