Hong Kong stock concept tracking | The heat of the "May Day" holiday travel in 2025 may reach nearly a 3-year high. Tourism leading enterprises will benefit. (Concept stocks attached)

The May Day holiday is approaching, and the tourism market is experiencing a peak in bookings. Data from Ctrip shows that the number of people traveling during the May Day holiday this year has doubled compared to previous years, with domestic long-distance trips accounting for 40% and short-distance outbound trips accounting for 30%, with Japan and Southeast Asia being the most popular destinations. Domestic cities in the south such as Xishuangbanna, Guilin, and Xiamen are favored, with the proportion of independent travelers and self-driving tours continuing to rise. Some outbound routes are already sold out, while there are still available spots for domestic trips. On April 16th, train tickets for the May Day holiday went on sale. On the Ctrip platform, there is a high demand for travel from northern regions to the Yangtze River Delta, the two lakes, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions, with many travelers heading to Beijing, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Changsha, and Qingdao. Routes such as Beijing-Wuhan, Beijing-Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Shanghai-Fuzhou, and Shanghai-Changsha have limited ticket availability, making ticket purchases as difficult as during the Spring Festival travel season. On April 15th, TONGCHENGTRAVEL released the "Insight Report on the 2025 May Day Tourism Trends". The report shows that this year's May Day holiday, the mass tourism demand represented by users from non-first-tier cities will continue to drive the prosperous development of the holiday economy. Through methods like combining holidays, users not only have more time to explore more "hidden gem" counties, but their travel range will also expand from domestic to overseas destinations. TONGCHENGTRAVEL data shows that besides popular domestic destinations like Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai, more tourists will leave their travel traces in South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand. With the increasing potential of travel consumption, the booking popularity of domestic high-star hotels far exceeds that of three-star and below hotels. Leading travel hotel-related companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market: TRIP.COM-S(09961): In early March, Daiwa released a research report maintaining a "buy" rating for TRIP.COM-S(09961) and raised the target price from HKD 705 to HKD 735. The firm raised Ctrip's earnings forecasts by 3% to 5% for the years 2025 to 2027, expecting a 58% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025. Despite concerns about the "downgrade effect", Chinese consumer spending remains strong, with consumers showing a stronger willingness to travel long distances. Even with the increase in chain hotel supply, pressures on average room prices may persist in the first quarter of this year, but Ctrip's average room price for Chinese hotels has only decreased at a low single-digit rate compared to the industry average decline. TONGCHENGTRAVEL(00780): In late March, Morgan Stanley released a research report raising its revenue forecasts for TONGCHENGTRAVEL(00780) by 2% to 3% for the years 2025 to 2026 and increasing the diluted earnings per share forecast for the company by 9.9% and 6% for the next two years due to strong operational leverage. The firm raised its target price from HKD 25 to HKD 26 and rated the stock as "hold". HWORLD-S(01179): In mid-March, Daiwa released a research report stating that HWORLD-S(01179) saw a 10% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, roughly meeting market expectations. Taking into account the faster-than-expected expansion of the hotel network, the firm raised its EBITDA forecasts for the 2025 to 2026 fiscal years by 1% to 2%, increased the H-share target price from HKD 27.5 to HKD 31.5, and maintained an "outperform the market" rating.