Economic recession? That's a problem for the future. Wall Street is still "celebrating" in the first quarter.

Notice that, over the past week, statements from senior executives of major banks in the United States indicate their concerns about the economic outlook. However, the first quarter financial reports of these banks do not raise much cause for worry. The six largest banks in the US collectively repurchased approximately $22 billion in stocks in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of over 60%. At the same time, the total loan loss reserves of these banks increased by $1.2 billion, lower than the average level of the past three years. The "animal spirits" unleashed by Trump's election in November and the market volatility caused by his policy statements formed a stark contrast this quarter. The result is a series of financial reports showing active trading on Wall Street, with American consumers and businesses still healthy. However, there are also continuous warnings that the future is difficult to predict. Large banks in the first quarter hardly increased their loan loss reserves This contradiction was highlighted in a conversation between Bank of America Corp CEO Brian Moynihan and senior bank analyst Mike Mayo this Tuesday. Mayo stated, "The stock market has lost $7 trillion in market value, and management seems to not care." In response, Moynihan said, "Our economists, as well as your economists, I believe all expect growth to slow down, but it has not happened yet. We hope people don't overlook the strong performance of our company and team in the first quarter of 2025." Citigroup CFO Mark Mason expressed a similar view to analysts on a conference call. "When I look at our credit risk exposure and consumers, I find consumers still resilient and astute," Mason said. Consumer spending remains stable, "and we found that consumer spending on our branded credit card portfolio has actually increased." Moynihan stated that this positive trend did not stop at the beginning of the second quarter. The CEO said, "Consumer spending has not decreased." Bank of America Corp CFO Alastair Borthwick stated this Tuesday that the bank repurchased $4.5 billion in stocks in the first quarter, expanding further from the $3.5 billion repurchased in the fourth quarter of 2024 and still has room for further expansion. JPMorgan Chase repurchased $7.1 billion in stocks in the quarter, with CFO Jeremy Barnum attributing this to ample excess capital. The six largest US banks distributed over $100 billion in dividends in the quarter, meaning they returned over 80% of their profits to shareholders, a ratio higher than any year in the past four years. This confidence in no longer needing to store capital is still uncertain as the Biden administration's proposal to raise bank capital requirements remains pending and may be weakened or even canceled. Of course, they can still make more profits: these six companies achieved profits of $40 billion for the third time. Regional banks are also following suit. M&T Bank added $16 million in loan loss reserves, with CFO Daryl Bible stating that the company has made adjustments to the economic outlook. He said, "Economic downturn is something to consider for the later period." Barnum of JPMorgan stated that the bank has also taken a similar strategy, increasing the weight on "downside scenarios," leading to an increase of $973 million in reserves for the quarter, the largest increase among the six major banks. He said, "It is important to note that the increase in reserves is mainly not due to a significant deterioration in the actual credit performance of the portfolio, in fact, our performance is basically as expected." Mason of Citigroup stated on Tuesday that Citigroup's reserves also consider the possibility of "further economic downturn." But even so, the bank's trading division performance exceeded expectations, and wealth management and retail business revenues set records, enhancing CEO Jane Fraser's reform efforts. Fraser stated, "In terms of the macroeconomic environment, I do not intend to predict unpredictable things. Everyone is watching, and currently the macroeconomic outlook is worse than everyone expected at the beginning of the year."