Cui Dongshu: The national car market trend in March is diverging, showing a trend of strong demand and weak supply.

On April 12, Cui Dongshu released an analysis of the trends and competitive performance of the automotive sub-market in March 2025. In March, the national automotive market showed a trend of strong demand for passenger vehicles and weak demand for commercial vehicles. By the end of January 2025, the new round of subsidies policy was implemented, and the retail sales of passenger vehicles in February and March exceeded previous expectations. Before the implementation of the new policies, the market had low heat, with consumers in January mostly in a watchful and wait-and-see state. The market heated up rapidly in February and March, with consumer passenger car products maintaining a good momentum of consumption before the Spring Festival, while the commercial vehicle market showed structural growth characteristics. Last year, the inventory of commercial vehicles in channels was high, and in March this year, the trends of commercial vehicles were differentiated, with strong growth in the categories of light trucks, microbuses, and medium to large-scale buses in the new energy category. 1. Differentiated Trends of Passenger and Commercial Vehicles in 2025 In recent years, the divergence between passenger and commercial vehicles has been obvious, with commercial vehicles weakening as the real estate market returns to a reasonable low position and consumer consumption of passenger vehicles improves. In 2025, driven by policy factors, the growth rate of passenger vehicles in March was relatively good, while commercial vehicles were generally lower. The market only recovered after the Spring Festival, and due to weak demand, the trend in March was relatively weak. 2. Strong Start for the Automotive Market in 2025 In March 2025, the cumulative total sales of automobiles reached 7.418 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10%. The total sales of automobiles in March were 2.896 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 37%. The trend in passenger car sales in March was strong, with a significant rebound. Policy subsidies drove consumer confidence growth. In 2019, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 25.7687 million units, an 8.1% decrease; in 2020, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 25.31 million units, a 1.9% decrease; in 2021, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 26.27 million units, a 3.8% increase, finally achieving positive growth higher than in 2019; in 2022, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 26.7557 million units, a 1.9% increase; in 2023, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 30.09 million units, a 12.4% increase. The automotive market continued to show a low starting point and high growth in 2023, with clear signs of year-end overdrawal. In 2024, the total cumulative sales of automobiles were 31.436 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.5%. 3. Drastic Performance Differentiation among Major Automotive Groups Compared with the chart for 2021, some car companies performed strongly in 2022, with a significant divergence in industry growth rates. The outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of 2022 caused significant pressure on traditional car companies, especially with the impact of new energy combined with the epidemic. State-owned large groups showed performance differentiation, with Guangzhou and Chery performing well, with both the commercial and passenger car sectors of Chery performing well. Various car companies in the North, such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC, all faced pressure. At the beginning of 2023, the trend in the automotive market was driven by new energy. The three major central enterprises showed overall differentiation, with some state-owned enterprises falling behind. New energy companies such as BYD and Tesla performed well; Chery, Tesla, and BYD had relatively strong performances this year. The performance of second-tier car companies differed, with a significant divergence among small and medium-sized independent brands due to the continuous pressure of loss from the conversion of old and new kinetic energy and new energy vehicles. The lineup of automotive groups in 2024 underwent a comprehensive transformation, with BYD's new models lowering prices and increasing sales volume. Due to the strong demand for passenger car sales and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performed well, while SAIC remained in a steep decline. The growth rates of BYD and Tesla, both new energy vehicles, diverged. There have been huge changes in the landscape of automotive manufacturers, with industry growth showing drastic differentiation. Starting in 2025, private enterprises have replaced state-owned enterprises as the industry's main force, with Geely, BYD, and Chery maintaining relatively high growth rates. This trend currently shows a sustainable trend. In March, the vehicle market showed relatively differentiation, with some car companies adjusting their strong start at the beginning of the year for a surge at the end of the quarter in March. New energy vehicle consumption in March was strong, leading to structural growth in the market due to scrappage renewal policies, with trends varying among different companies. In March, BYD, SAIC, Dongfeng, and other major manufacturers saw significant growth compared to the previous month, while Changan, Tesla, and others saw relatively stable growth compared to February. 4. Trends in the Production and Sales of Narrow Passenger Car Companies In March 2025, the total cumulative sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 6.276 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%; the total sales of narrow passenger vehicles in March were 2.412 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a month-on-month increase of 36.5%. In recent years, the continuous innovation of new energy vehicle technology and the increasing competitiveness of new products have led to strong growth in the sector. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles after the Spring Festival of 2025 brought about a strong development in the vehicle market. In March, major car companies overall showed strength, with independent brands performing strongly and joint venture car companies showing slow improvement in March. BYD led the way, Geely Auto climbed to second place, and Chery maintained its third position. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen performed well. The camp of major passenger car manufacturers has quickly differentiated, with manufacturers primarily focused on new energy vehicles showing strong performance. Independence showed particularly significant performance differentiation. In 2023, the total annual retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles by manufacturers reached 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%; in 2024, the total sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 22.89 million units, a 5% increase year-on-year; in March 2025, the wholesale and retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles totaled 1.94 million units, a 15% increase year-on-year. 5. Trends in the Production and Sales of New Energy Passenger Car Companies In 2024, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.24 million units, a good trend with a 38% increase, driven by scrappage renewal subsidies, price reductions by manufacturers, and the introduction of new models. From January to March 2025, the wholesale and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.85 million units, a 43% increase year-on-year. 6. Trends in the Production and Sales of Traditional Fuel-Powered Passenger Car Companies In 2023, the sales of narrow traditional fuel-powered passenger vehicles reached 16.66 million units, remaining basically flat compared to the same period in 2022; in 2024, the sales of narrow traditional fuel-powered passenger vehicles reached 14.95 million units, a 10% decrease year-on-year compared to the previous year; from January to March 2025, sales reached 3.43 million units, a 6% decrease year-on-year and a 7% decrease in March. The continued decline in conventional passenger car sales earlier brought significant market pressure. Recently, there has been relative recovery in the trend of traditional cars, but the price of new energy vehicles has remained.The impact will continue to be felt, hoping that traditional cars can also stabilize and recover growth.Conventional power passenger cars joint venture enterprises are gradually changing, Chery, Geely, and the joint venture trio still have a strong market presence. FAW-Volkswagen leads in joint ventures, while the relative advantage of independent brands in fuel vehicles is not obvious, and the fuel vehicle technology of joint venture enterprises remains very strong. 7. Trends in Commercial Vehicle Enterprises Production and Sales Classification The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market is relatively low, with a 30% year-on-year decrease in 2022, showing an unusually low growth rate. By the end of 2023, the total sales of commercial vehicles by manufacturers reached 4.2977 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 18.6%; by the end of 2024, the total sales of commercial vehicles reached 4.148 million units, with a cumulative decrease of 3%; by March 2025, the total sales of commercial vehicles reached 1.142 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6.6%; in March, the total sales of commercial vehicles reached 484,000 units, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, and a 39.8% increase month-on-month. The market started strong in February 2025. The main manufacturers in the commercial vehicle market are Beiqi Foton, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, SAIC General Motors Wuling, Dongfeng Motor, etc., with Changan and Great Wall Motor performing relatively well year-on-year. Both Shaanxi Automobile and Sinotruk Jinan Truck have performed well in heavy-duty trucks, with some second-tier companies showing a strong trend. 8. Trends in Micro Vehicle Enterprises Production and Sales Classification By the end of 2023, the total sales of micro vehicles by manufacturers reached 882,400 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6.3%; by the end of 2024, the total sales of micro vehicles reached 707,000 units, with a cumulative decrease of 19.8%; by March 2025, the total sales of micro vehicles reached 197,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.2%; in March, the total sales of micro vehicles reached 84,000 units, a decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, and an increase of 21.6% month-on-month. In the first half of 2024, Wuling showed relatively strong performance, followed by an adjustment in the second half of the year. In March 2025, most major manufacturers saw an increase in sales. Wuling and Dongfeng's commercial vehicles performed well in 2025, while the recovery of new energy micro vehicles showed potential. In the first quarter, the micro vehicle models of Chery and Dongfeng were relatively strong. And so on...