Overnight US stocks | The Nasdaq rose more than 7% this week, and U.S. Treasuries have fallen for the fifth consecutive day.

On Friday, the market continued to focus on the progress of Trump's trade war, with the White House hinting at an open attitude towards reaching a trade agreement with China. Bank stocks outperformed expectations. This week saw severe volatility in the US stock market, but all three major indices recorded gains during this period. The S&P 500 index rose by 5.7%, its best weekly performance since November. The Nasdaq rose by 7.29% and the Dow rose by 4.95%. US Treasury bonds fell for the fifth consecutive day as investors withdrew from US assets, pushing long-term bond yields to one of the largest weekly increases since the 1980s. On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose by 16 basis points to nearly 4.6%, an increase of over half a percentage point from the previous week. The spike in yield is in stark contrast to the Trump administration's goal of lowering long-term rates to ease the burden on households and businesses. The recent stock market plunge was triggered by the US trade war that shook global markets and could potentially impact the economy again by raising borrowing costs more widely. This has also raised doubts about the status of US Treasury bonds as a global safe haven. [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones rose by 619.05 points or 1.56% to 40212.71 points; the Nasdaq rose by 337.14 points or 2.06% to 16724.46 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 95.31 points or 1.81% to 5363.36 points. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) rose by over 4%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) rose by over 2%. The Nasdaq China Dragon Index rose by 1.73%, XPeng, Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A (XPEV.US) rose by over 11%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose by 3.4%. [European Stocks] The German DAX30 index fell by 225.21 points or 1.09% to 20364.14 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 47.56 points or 0.60% to 7960.81 points; the French CAC40 index fell by 19.47 points or 0.27% to 7106.55 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 32.27 points or 0.67% to 4786.65 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell by 52.67 points or 0.43% to 12287.53 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 283.09 points or 0.83% to 33994.00 points. [Asia-Pacific Stocks] The Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.96%, the South Korean KOSPI index fell by 0.5%, and the Indonesia Composite Index rose by 0.13%. [Forex] The ICE US Dollar Index fell by 0.86% to 99.998 points, accumulating a 2.94% decline this week, after trading near 103 points from Monday to Wednesday, with continuous declines on Thursday and Friday. The US dollar fell to 99.014 points on Friday morning, its first drop below 100 since July 13, 2023. The intraday trading range was points. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index fell by 0.97% to 1234.24 points, accumulating a 2.42% decline this week, with an overall trading range of 1272.61-1229.57 points. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose by over 5% to $83,956.12, while Ethereum rose by over 3.2% to $1570.99. [Metals] Gold rose for three consecutive days, hitting a new all-time high. Spot gold rose by 1.97% to $3238.42 per ounce. [Oil] At the close, NYMEX light crude oil futures for May delivery rose by $1.43 to $61.50 per barrel, an increase of 2.38%; Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose by $1.43 to $64.76 per barrel, an increase of 2.26%. [Macro News] US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March. US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March, driven by a sharp drop in energy product costs, but import tariffs are expected to push inflation higher in the coming months. The US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that the PPI fell by 0.4% in March, with February data revised up to 0.1%. The March PPI rose by 2.7% on an annual basis, compared to 3.2% in February. Softening domestic demand may partially alleviate the expected surge in inflation. The March CPI report showed monthly declines in airline ticket prices, hotel and motel room prices. US consumer confidence and inflation expectations deteriorated sharply. US consumer confidence in April deteriorated sharply, with 12-month inflation expectations rising to their highest level since 1981, amid escalating trade tensions causing anxiety. On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell from a final value of 57.0 in March to 50.8, lower than economists' forecast of 54.5. Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the Consumer Research Center, said, "This decline was pervasive across all age, income, education, geographic and political groups, and consistent." "Consumers reported multiple warning signals, increasing the risk of economic recession: expectations for business conditions, personal financial conditions, income, inflation, and the labor market all deteriorated this month." US Customs: Tariff declaration system malfunction. According to reports, US Customs reported that the system used to exempt cargo from tariffs had malfunctioned. Affected shipments include all trade goods from countries currently in the 90-day tariff suspension period implemented by the Trump administration. US Customs stated that they found that the entry code used by US consignors to apply for duty-free goods was not working, and "this issue is under review." Currently, this means that the US government is temporarily unable to impose tariffs. US Customs stated that they will release updates after the issue is resolved. Dewardric McNeal, senior policy analyst at consulting firm Longview Global, stated that malfunctions do occur, but the timing was unfortunate and will raise more questions about the ability of US Customs to keep up with tariff adjustments. Federal ReserveMoulusarlem: The Federal Reserve should be wary of continued inflation driven by tariffs. Federal Reserve official Moulusarlem said he is closely monitoring whether the recent increase in short-term inflation expectations will seep into longer-term expectations, which could make combating inflation more difficult and reduce the Fed's flexibility in responding to a weak labor market. He pointed out that the effects and timing of tariffs and other new policies are highly uncertain, and there is a "clear possibility" of inflation accelerating again even if the labor market softens. He said that the Fed's policy is in a favorable position and should remain cautious. He said, "I am cautious about the assumption that the impact of raising tariffs on inflation is only temporary or limited." "I believe that it is appropriate to 'resist' the second-round effects through monetary policy, even though in practice, differentiating potential inflation from the direct, indirect, and second-round effects of tariffs may be a challenge."New York Fed President Williams: Tariffs Expected to Worsen Inflation, Slow Economic Growth. New York Fed President Williams expects tariffs to push up inflation, restrain economic growth, and says the Fed's monetary policy stance is in the "best position to manage these risks as best as we can." He stated, "During times of uncertainty, consumers may delay making major decisions, such as buying a house or a car, and businesses may delay investment until they have a better sense of the future." "When households and businesses cut back on spending, economic growth slows down." Due to February data showing inflation still above target, Williams said it is correct for the Fed to maintain rates at a level that moderately inhibits the economy. "The current moderately tight monetary policy stance is entirely appropriate," he said. Williams also stated, "During times of turmoil and uncertainty, good long-term inflation expectations are essential to ensuring price stability," "In pursuing our maximum employment goal and achieving long-term inflation of 2%, maintaining inflation expectations is crucial." Analysts: U.S. Customs Failure May Be a "Strategic Smoke Screen." Analysts at institutions suggest that the recent failure at U.S. Customs may be more than just a software glitch. The excuse of a "failure" may be a strategic smoke screen, aiming not to fix a system that has gone wrong, but to buy time during a period of high risk adjustments in global trade and capital flows. As Trump's tariffs have rattled global supply chains, the sudden "failure" causing a halt in tariff data processing conveniently allows key stakeholders - bill of exchange operators, freight forwarding companies, the U.S. Treasury, and Customs - to pause and reassess pricing and strategies before any new tax rates take effect. This could be a form of information interference similar to a short-lived fog-of-war strategy in wartime. By freezing tariff exemptions tracking and reducing transparency on who is exempt and who isn't, it gives U.S. government administration and Treasury some relatively quiet time (hours or days) to assess market reactions and intervene when necessary, without exposing their actions to news headlines. Think of it as a preemptive firewall against a liquidity crisis or GEO Group Inc. political panic, rather than a system-wide failure. Fed's Kashkari: Investors Pulling Out of U.S. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said on Friday that recent market trends indicate that investors are leaving the U.S., the safest investment destination, amidst escalating trade wars by Trump. He said that in the past few days, as U.S. treasury yields rose and the dollar depreciated against global currencies, the trend was opposite of what you would usually expect. "Typically, when you see significant tariff increases, I would expect the dollar to rise. The fact that the dollar is falling at the same time makes the argument that investors' preferences are shifting more credible," Kashkari said. He also said, "Investors all over the world have seen the U.S. as the best investment destination, and if that is no longer the case, we will see a trade deficit. So one way it's manifesting now is through a decline in yields on all kinds of U.S. assets." "If the trade deficit shrinks, investors may say, well, the U.S. is no longer the most attractive investment destination in the world, and then you'll see bond yields rise." However, Kashkari pointed out that he is seeing "pressures" in market operations, not severe chaos. U.S. Treasury Yields Soar, Analysts Say Confidence in U.S. Bond Market Lost. On Friday, U.S. treasury yields rose to their highest level since February this year. Traders complained that liquidity was deteriorating amidst a sharp drop in the $29 trillion U.S. treasury market, a traditional ultimate safe haven in the global financial system. The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury rose by 0.19% to 4.58%. Trump's capricious trade policies have shaken investor confidence in U.S. policy and economy, leading to a mass exodus of investors from U.S. assets. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategies for Academy Securities, said, "If you are a foreign holder, there is indeed pressure to sell U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds globally." "People are really worried globally about what Trump is going to do." According to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index's returns, the sell-off on Friday resulted in the worst week for U.S. treasuries in 2019, accompanied by a drop in the dollar. "We are concerned because the trend suggests that this is not a normal sell-off," said a senior executive in a European bank's bulk services department. "They suggest that people have completely lost confidence in the world's strongest bond market." Stock News Volvo (VLVLY.US) CEO says it may take two years to expand production in the U.S. Volvo CEO Hakan Samuelsson said the company will need up to two years to expand production in the U.S. Since April 2, Volvo has paid a 27.5% tariff to the U.S. He said selling European-made cars in the U.S. is unsustainable, putting pressure on profit margins and causing price increases for customers. Stellantis (STLA.US) expects first-quarter shipments to be around 1.2 million units, down 9% year-on-year. Stellantis Group announced on April 11 its first-quarter global shipments forecast for this year, excluding its joint ventures, as of March 31, the forecast is around 1.2 million units, a 9% decrease year-on-year. This is due to a decrease in production in the North American market caused by extended shutdowns during the January holidays, as well as the impact in the European market from product transitions and declining sales of light commercial vehicles.