GLMS SEC Securities: New home sales volume steadily rebounded in March, land auctions continue to heat up.

GLMS SEC securities released a research report stating that from January to March 2025, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 35 cities was 32.10 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, narrowing by 0.92 percentage points compared to January-February, with the transaction area in first-tier cities increasing by 7.72% year-on-year. In terms of prices, the prices of new homes in 100 cities continued to rise in March, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. In March, real estate companies increased their efforts to push inventory onto the market, with an ample supply of high-quality improvement products, and high-quality cities showed strong potential. Looking ahead to the second quarter, on the demand side, new homes may continue the trend of weak recovery driven by improvement products in core cities, while second-hand homes may continue to fluctuate at high levels; on the supply side, the land market is heating up and is expected to form a virtuous cycle with the new housing market, promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. The main points of GLMS SEC securities are as follows: New home sales: Transaction volume steadily rising, real estate companies' performance continues to differentiate From January to March 2025, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 35 cities was 32.10 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, narrowing by 0.92 percentage points compared to January-February, with the transaction area in first-tier cities increasing by 7.72% year-on-year. In terms of prices, the prices of new homes in 100 cities continued to rise in March, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. In March, real estate companies increased their efforts to push inventory onto the market, with an ample supply of high-quality improvement products, and high-quality cities showed strong potential. Real estate companies' performance continues to differentiate, with YUEXIU PROPERTY and Zhuhai Huafa Properties recording a year-on-year increase in cumulative sales of +41.98% and +44.77% respectively in January-March 2025, while Poly Developments and Holdings Group, CHINA RES LAND, and GREENTOWN CHINA remained relatively flat year-on-year. Second-hand home sales: Transaction volume fluctuating at high levels, prices in first-tier cities relatively stable From January to March 2025, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand homes in 15 cities was 24.41 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, which narrowed by 2.55 percentage points compared to January-February. Looking at a single month, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 15 cities in March was 10.05 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 26.46%, maintaining positive year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months. In terms of prices, the prices of second-hand homes in 100 cities declined by 0.59% month-on-month and 7.29% year-on-year in March. The second-hand housing market continued the trend of trading volume for price, with a relatively small decrease in prices in first-tier cities. Land market: Land auctions continue to heat up, with high premiums driving prices and volumes up in sync From January to March 2025, the cumulative transaction area of residential land in 300 cities nationwide was 43.14 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.04%, expanding by 4.57 percentage points compared to January-February; the average transaction price per square meter of land was 8,107 yuan, up 27.50% year-on-year. In March 2025, the premium rate for residential land in 300 cities nationwide was 20.64%, exceeding 10% for the third consecutive month, with cities such as Beijing, Suzhou, and Hangzhou setting new records for floor prices. Market expectations in core cities gradually improved, with real estate companies showing increased enthusiasm in land acquisition, high-quality land auctions continuing to heat up, and transaction prices continuing to rise. Investment recommendations: Continuously recommend top state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies Looking ahead to the second quarter, on the demand side, new homes may continue the trend of weak recovery driven by improvement products in core cities, while second-hand homes may continue to fluctuate at high levels; on the supply side, the land market is heating up and is expected to form a virtuous cycle with the new housing market, promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. In terms of targets, it is recommended to focus on top state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with sustained land acquisition capabilities in key urban core areas and high product quality and service, such as GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), CHINA OVERSEAS (00688), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group (002244.SZ), C&D INTL GROUP (01908), Xiamen C&D Inc. (600153.SH), etc.; and pay attention to real estate intermediary platforms with core competitiveness, such as 5i5j Holding Group (000560.SZ) and others. Risk warning: Unexpected policy effects, increased liquidity risks for real estate companies, market confidence falling short of expectations.