Tariff clouds are difficult to shake the resilience of the tourism industry. Global travel spending hits a historic high against the trend.

Despite the imminent pressure of rising living costs for consumers and the global economy teetering on the edge of recession, the tourism industry is expected to achieve record growth in the coming months. The latest forecast from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) shows that by 2025, this industry's contribution to the global economy will reach $11.7 trillion, accounting for 10.3% of global GDP. This year, international travel expenditure is expected to surpass $2.1 trillion, exceeding the historical peak of $1.9 trillion in 2019. Since the lifting of pandemic restrictions, the tourism industry has been steadily recovering, and based on current growth rates, the industry's size could reach $2.9 trillion by 2035. When considering the industry's indirect contributions such as hotel purchases of local goods, employee spending, its economic impact will expand to $16 trillion, accounting for 11.5% of global GDP. These projections are based on the preliminary draft of the "2025 Economic Impact Research Report" completed by WTTC in collaboration with Oxford Economics, with the full version set to be released on April 9. However, it is important to note that the research data was collected before the Trump administration announced tariffs on more than 90 countries, and the new tariff policies could push up commodity prices, restrict flight supply, and weaken the disposable income of U.S. tourists (the highest spending group globally). In the face of tariff threats and economic recession risks, WTTC President Julia Simpson stated, "Despite short-term headwinds, we still expect strong growth in international travel expenditure this year." She emphasized that while the situation may have changed after the completion of the study, people still prioritize travel: "The tariff trends are still unclear, and we currently only consider them as temporary fluctuations in the data." Part of this confidence comes from the prepaid nature of tourism consumption - most trips require advance payment and are non-refundable. WTTC's summer travel data shows that booking volumes in France and Spain have reached historic highs, with strong performance in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. The African tourism industry is expected to contribute $225 billion, accounting for nearly 8% of the continent's GDP, a 17% increase from 2019. However, the report points out that the U.S. and China may become major pressure points for the tourism industry - this conclusion was drawn before the mutual imposition of tariffs. A separate forecast by Oxford Economics on April 3 predicted that inbound tourist arrivals in the U.S. would decrease by 9.4%, leading to a $9 billion reduction in domestic spending. The agency attributed this to uncertainties in border policies, a stronger dollar, damage to national image, and weak economic conditions in both key markets of Canada and Mexico. "The U.S. will still be the largest market in terms of GDP contribution to the tourism industry, but it does face challenges," Simpson revealed. She also pointed out that history has shown the resilience of the tourism industry - whether in world wars, global pandemics, or natural disasters, its recovery has always been faster compared to other industries. However, this industry leader admitted to concerns. The potential impact of tariffs on the global supply chain is a major worry: "It is still too early to assert specific impacts, what we truly need to do is to keep observing." As the new tariff policies gradually take effect, whether this counter-trend growth in the tourism feast can continue, remains to be seen.