CMBC International: In a volatile market, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) is the preferred safe haven.

Bank of China International released a research report stating that with strong dividend support, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has become a safe haven in the turbulent global market. Despite some noise, the direct impact of US tariffs on Bank of China is relatively limited, even considering the indirect impact on related companies and potential government currency stimulus measures. Bank of China International believes that ICBC offers the most resilient dividend yield among large banks, given its robust balance sheet, ample liquidity, strong impairment reserves, and capital adequacy ratio, making it a safe haven in the current uncertain times. Bank of China International expects ICBC's profits to increase by 3% year-on-year in the fiscal years 2025 and 2026. After adjusting the model, the profit forecast for fiscal year 2025 remains largely unchanged, but the profit forecast for fiscal year 2026 is lowered by 2%, with slight reductions in the forecast for pre-provision operating profit and impairment losses. With stable fee income growth, it is expected that trading income will increase and impairment losses will steadily decrease, partially offsetting the impact of narrowing net interest margins. Based on more conservative profit forecasts, slight adjustments were made to the target prices for A shares and H shares.