German economist predicts first: the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in May.

Deutsche Bank was the first to predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia will make a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut in May, citing the impact of the US tariff measures on business and consumer confidence, as well as on domestic economic growth in Australia. Deutsche Bank economist Phil Odonaghoe stated in a research report on Tuesday that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the cash rate from 4.1% to 3.6% on May 20, and will then cut it two more times by 25 basis points each later in the year, bringing the cash rate down to 3.1%. Phil Odonaghoe was the first bank economist to predict a 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May in response to a series of tariff measures by Trump. Financial market pricing suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates four times this year, with a 40% chance of a 50 basis point cut next month. Phil Odonaghoe said, "In the global risk aversion environment displayed by financial markets over the past few days, Australia will not be spared." "This is one of the few cases in history where global 'shocks' outweigh domestic economic considerations." He added, "The proactive response from the Reserve Bank of Australia is appropriate and consistent with precedent."