Morgan Stanley: Predicting a "bear market" scenario for the Hang Seng Index with a target of 17,400 points, optimistic about the Singapore stock market.

Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that in the "bear market" scenario in the Asia-Pacific market, the target for the Hang Seng Index at the end of this year is 17,400 points (equivalent to predicting a price-earnings ratio of 8.3 times this year), the target for the National Index in the "bear market" scenario at the end of this year is 6,490 points (equivalent to predicting a price-earnings ratio of 7.2 times this year), and the target for the MSCI China Index in the "bear market" scenario at the end of this year is 56 points (equivalent to predicting a price-earnings ratio of 9 times this year), including profit and valuation assumptions reflecting a global economic recession scenario. The bank pointed out that in a situation where market allocation is chaotic, the North Asian region, which is greatly affected by trade, usually performs poorly, despite the yen appreciation helping to mitigate dollar-denominated returns, especially for defensive stocks. The bank maintains a "reduce" view on markets such as Korea and Australia. Morgan Stanley pointed out that because these markets have some valuation extension similar to the US stock market, they may not have the same defensive characteristics during initial adjustments as usual. The bank is optimistic about the Singapore stock market, as the recent improvement in China's profitability and relaxation of Indian policies may provide some cushion for its index, although India's valuation seems to be easily influenced by domestic sentiment changes. These two markets also benefit from relatively low beta coefficients of global stocks, especially Chinese A shares.