"Decoupling from the trend of US stocks"? Analysts: Market refocuses on Bitcoin's safe-haven potential.
05/04/2025
GMT Eight
In the past few days of financial market turmoil, Bitcoin is gradually breaking away from its long-standing association with tech stocks. As the Nasdaq 100 index plunged for two consecutive days, this globally pioneering cryptocurrency defied the trend and rose, showing a completely different trend from traditional risk assets.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Bitcoin has maintained a high positive correlation with the Nasdaq 100, often rising and falling in sync with tech stocks. However, as of this Friday, the price of Bitcoin rose against the trend by about 1%, reaching around $83,300; meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 experienced a sharp decline for the second consecutive trading day as market sentiment remained low due to the Trump administration's announcement of new tariffs.
"We believe that Trump's aggressive trade measures have accelerated the market's reassessment of the long-term value of Bitcoin in portfolios," said Augustine Fan, partner and CFO of SignalPlus. "The global order is being reset, which poses a challenge to the United States as a global capital center in the medium term."
Born after the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin was originally intended to escape the traditional financial system and provide an alternative currency that is not controlled by governments and central banks. Therefore, many supporters have always believed that Bitcoin serves as a "store of value" and is the "gold" of the digital age.
However, in recent years, the actual trading behavior of Bitcoin has been more like a high-volatility and high-risk asset, closely linked to the movement of the US stock market. Nevertheless, the current divergence in trends between Bitcoin and tech stocks has once again attracted market attention to its hedging potential.
Unlike the large multinational companies in the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not "tradeable goods" and are not affected by international tariffs. This structural advantage allows it to temporarily escape the downward pressure on traditional risk assets amidst escalating global trade tensions.
Bohan Jiang, head of off-exchange options trading at Abra, said, "Bitcoin is not within the firepower of this global trade war, and with the current push for 'de-dollarization' by US policy, I believe the volatility in the cryptocurrency space may be relatively subdued or even lower than other traditional assets for the foreseeable future."
If global geopolitical tensions continue to rise, there is a resurgence of trade protectionism, and the dominance of the US dollar is challenged, then Bitcoin, as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset, may be revalued in global investment portfolios.