Overnight US stocks | There are no complete eggs under a toppled nest! The Nasdaq fell into a bear market this week, with a cumulative drop of over 10%.

date
05/04/2025
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GMT Eight
The major stock indexes in the United States have experienced their biggest weekly decline since March 2020, following President Trump's announcement of tariff plans that exceeded expectations, sparking concerns about global economic growth. "The reason for today's steep stock market decline is really a lack of buyers," said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, with people waiting to see how initial (trade) negotiations/reprisal progress and uncertain about how much of a decline is "enough" to evaluate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 14.9% from its record closing, while the S&P 500 is down 17.4%. The Nasdaq has dropped 22.7% from its December 16 record closing, confirming that it has entered a bear market. US stocks lost over $ 3 trillion in market value today. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also did not provide a short-term answer on how tariffs would affect monetary policy, saying, "We face a highly uncertain outlook, with risks to unemployment and inflation both rising." [US stocks] As of Friday's close, the Dow fell 2,231.07 points, a decrease of 5.50%, to 38,314.86 points; the Nasdaq fell 962.82 points, a decrease of 5.82%, to 15,587.79 points; the S&P 500 index fell 322.44 points, a decrease of 5.97%, to 5,074.08 points. This week, the three major US stock indexes have recorded significant declines, with the Dow down 7.86% for the week, the Nasdaq down 10.02%, and the S&P 500 down 9.08%. [European stocks] The Germany DAX30 index fell 1,065.08 points, or 4.91%, to 20,635.28 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 420.48 points, or 4.96%, to 8,054.26 points; the France CAC40 index fell 324.03 points, or 4.26%, to 7,274.95 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 235.23 points, or 4.60%, to 4,878.05 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell 808.50 points, a decrease of 6.12%, to 12,406.00 points; the Italy FTSE MIB index fell 2,420.83 points, a decrease of 6.53%, to 34,650.00 points. [Asia-Pacific stock market] The Nikkei 225 index was down 2.75%, while the Korea KOSPI index was down 0.86%. [Forex] The US dollar index, which measures the USD against six major currencies, rose 0.93% on the day, closing at 103.024 in the currency market. At the close of the New York currency market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.0943 US dollars, down from 1.1037 US dollars in the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for 1.2881 US dollars, down from 1.3095 US dollars in the previous trading day. 1 US dollar exchanged for 146.91 Japanese yen, up from 146.43 Japanese yen in the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8606 Swiss francs, down from 0.8611 Swiss francs in the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.4238 Canadian dollars, up from 1.4084 Canadian dollars in the previous trading day; 1 US dollar exchanged for 10.0390 Swedish krona, up from 9.7865 Swedish krona in the previous trading day. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose over 1.3%, trading at $84,196.48, while Ethereum showed minimal volatility, trading at $1,818.46. In the recent volatility in the financial markets, Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking free from the gravity of tech stocks. Since the pandemic, Bitcoin has been highly correlated with the Nasdaq 100 index, with movements usually in sync with the benchmark index. However, on Friday, Bitcoin actually rose by about 1% to around $83,300, while the Nasdaq 100 index fell for the second consecutive day due to Trump's tariff issue. Augustine Fan, partner at the cryptocurrency trading platform SignalPlus, said, "We believe that Trump's aggressive actions have accelerated people's reassessment of Bitcoin's long-term value in their portfolios, as the reset of the global order has significant medium-term implications for the US as a capital destination." Bohan Jiang, head of over-the-counter options trading at Abra, said, "Bitcoin is not a target in the global trade war, and with the current policies of the US government effectively pushing for de-dollarizing, I think we may see the paradoxical weakening of volatility in the Bitcoin space relative to everything else." [Metals] Spot gold fell 2.51% to $3,037.13 per ounce, with a weekly cumulative decline of 1.54%, trading between $3,167.84 and $3,015.86. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index fell 9.78% to 157.76 points, with a weekly decline of 10.69%, trading sideways around 177 points from Monday to Thursday, dropping sharply on Friday. Spot silver fell 7.06% to $29.5931 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 13.25%, trading sideways around $34 from Monday to Wednesday and then accelerating the decline on Thursday and Friday. COMEX copper futures fell 9.27% to $4.3810 per pound, with a weekly cumulative decline of 14.60%, trading in a narrow range around $5.10 from Monday to Wednesday before accelerating the decline on Thursday and Friday. [Crude oil] US WTI crude oil plummeted 7.4% on Friday, falling below $62, reaching the lowest level since 2021, partly due to concerns that the large-scale tariffs announced by the US could harm economic growth. The May delivery of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.96, or 7.41%, to $61.99 per barrel. The price of the commodity fell by over 8% earlier on Friday. Prior to this, the price of the commodity fell 6.6% on Thursday. According to the most active contract, WTI crude oil fell by more than 10.62% for the week. [Macro News] Powell says not in a hurry to cut rates, analysts: Fed can't provide insurance for the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explicitly stated that the Fed will not rush to respond to the comprehensive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, nor will it overreact to the financial market volatility caused by concerns about a global economic recession. Analysts believe that the Fed may not be able to provide insurance for the economy through measures such as rate cuts, given the highly uncertain current situation.Reacting. On Friday, Powell said at a meeting in Virginia that tariffs could have a significant impact on the US economy, including slowing growth and rising inflation. But he added that Fed officials would wait until these policies are more clear before cutting interest rates. He also emphasized that the central bank has a duty to ensure that the temporary rise in prices due to tariffs does not turn into a more prolonged increase while inflation remains high. Julia Coronado, founder of research company MacroPolicy Perspectives, said: "The Fed cannot provide insurance for the economy as they did during the trade wars of 2018 and 2019, because inflation is too high and above their target." She believes there will be a recession in the second half of this year. "Even if they conclude that they need to cut rates, they may do so later and more slowly, because we are in the midst of an inflationary impulse."The growth in employment in the United States exceeds expectations, while the unemployment rate is rising. Employment in the United States in March exceeded expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a healthy labor market before the global economy was hit by widespread tariffs. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm employment increased by 228,000 in March. With the rise in labor force participation, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Wage growth remains strong. The report noted that the labor market was resilient before President Trump's comprehensive imposition of tariffs on Wednesday. Employment growth was led by healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality. Employment in the retail sector rebounded, reflecting the return of workers after a strike by 10,000 employees of Kroger Co. Hedge funds face the most severe margin calls since 2020. Hedge funds have suffered the largest scale of margin calls since 2020 after the global financial markets plummeted due to Trump's tariffs. According to three sources, Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to put up more funds as collateral for loans, as the value of assets they hold has significantly decreased. Several major banks issued the largest scale of margin calls since early 2020, highlighting the drastic volatility in global markets on Thursday and Friday. "The scale of the margin calls is a result of the breadth of the overall market volatility in interest rates, equities, and oil prices," said a senior executive at a commodities brokerage. He added that it was reminiscent of the significant market volatility in the first few months after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Another senior executive in the commodities brokerage business of a major U.S. bank said, "We are actively engaging with clients to make them fully aware of the risks." U.S. media: Trump personally selected the tariff calculation formula and made the final decision just three hours before the official announcement. According to foreign media, after Trump became president of the United States, government economic officials embarked on the challenging task of determining tariff rates for dozens of countries to fulfill his campaign promise to set "equivalent" trade barriers. After weeks of work, aides from several government agencies developed a list of options covering various trade practices. However, Trump personally chose a formula based on two simple variables. It is unclear who proposed this option, but it has some remarkable similarities to the approach advocated by Navarro, a hardline economic advisor during Trump's first term in office. After the tariff measures were announced on Wednesday, markets plummeted, and this rough calculation was mocked by economists. It was reported that after discussions late into the night on Tuesday, Trump didn't make a final decision on the plan until around 1 p.m. on Wednesday, less than three hours before the announcement in the Rose Garden. JPMorgan: Retail investors buy stocks at the highest level in 10 years. JPMorgan said in a report on Friday that retail investors bought $4.7 billion worth of stocks on Thursday, the highest level in the past ten years. The historic "buying on the dip" behavior of retail investors involved stocks such as NVIDIA Corporation, Amazon.com, Inc., and S&P ETF, but they sold Tesla, Inc. JPMorgan also said that the frenzy buying by retail investors on Thursday was in stark contrast to their behavior during the sell-off period caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. JPMorgan also stated that the performance of retail investors on Thursday was consistent with the drop in the S&P 500 index on that day. Overall, individual stock portfolios have averaged a 12.9% decline year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 index. Canada sees its first decline in employment numbers in over two years in March, with an increase in the unemployment rate. Data from Statistics Canada on Friday showed that the country's net employment decreased by 32,600 people, the first decline in over two years, mainly due to a sharp drop in full-time jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.7% due to the uncertainty around tariffs and their subsequent implementation impacting hiring and prompting some layoffs. Analysts suggest that the equivalent tariffs and retaliatory measures in many countries are expected to have a severe impact on the global economy, potentially plunging many countries into a recession. The likelihood of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates again on April 16 is now 62%, a sharp turnaround from the 25% possibility the day before. Stock News Automotive giant Stellantis NV (STLA.US) plans to lay off employees in the U.S. and suspend operations in Canada and Mexico. On March 3rd local time, automotive company Stellantis NV announced that affected by the U.S. import tariffs, the company decided to lay off 900 employees at its five U.S. plants and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. The U.S. plants to be laid off are powertrain and stamping parts factories, producing components for the two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will be shut down for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will be shut down for the entire month of April. Nonrosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis NV in the Americas, said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium and long-term impact of tariffs on operations." Bank Ratings Wells Fargo & Company: Lowers the target price of BlackRock, Inc. (BLK.US) from $1,175 to $1,065 Bernstein: Lowers the target price of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX.US) from $115 to $105; Lowers the target price of NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US) from $95 to $85.

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