The "engine" of the US economy stalls! The growth rate of the service industry in March dropped to the lowest level in nine months.

date
03/04/2025
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GMT Eight
The "engine" of the US economy - the service industry - saw its growth rate in March drop to the lowest level in nine months, reflecting the impact of government spending cuts and the uncertainty caused by US tariff policies. According to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the service industry index fell from 53.5% in the previous month to 50.8% in March, still in expansion territory (above 50%), but at its lowest level since June of last year. The latest data does not fully reflect the impact of the new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration on global markets, but economists warn that if the trade war continues, it could push up prices, suppress business hiring, and put downward pressure on the overall economy. Business executives are already feeling the pressure of rising prices due to tariffs. Steve Miller, chairman of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said: "This month, there was a significant increase in the number of companies reporting cost increases due to tariffs." It is worth noting that over 80% of the employed population in the US work in industries such as retail, healthcare, and technology, and the weakness in the service industry could have an impact on the overall job market. Subcomponent data shows that the new orders index fell 1.8 percentage points to 50.4%. The employment index dropped 7.7 percentage points to 46.2%, reaching its lowest level in nearly a year. The price index (an indicator of inflation) fell 1.7 percentage points to 60.9%, but still remains above the long-term average. The service industry has been a major driver of US economic growth and is typically less affected by tariffs, but as businesses seek new supply chains, operating costs could continue to rise. Economists currently believe that the long-term impact of the trade war is difficult to predict, but the possibility of an economic recession cannot be ruled out if the tariff dispute continues unresolved.

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