Crowd intelligence consulting: It is anticipated that the average capacity utilization rate of major wafer foundries will maintain a month-on-month growth rate of about 1 percentage point starting from the second quarter.

In the first quarter of 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of major wafer fabs globally is expected to be around 84%, an increase of approximately 9 percentage points year-on-year and 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter. Sigmaintell predicts that from the second quarter of 2025 onwards, the average capacity utilization rate of major wafer foundries will maintain a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of around 1 percentage point. With the release of Deepseek in December 2024, the demand for AI applications has increased again, keeping the utilization rate of advanced processes stable. In terms of mature processes, geopolitical factors continue to impact the global market, with tariff risks driving downstream manufacturers to actively pull in shipments from the 4th quarter of 2024 to the 1st quarter of 2025. However, there is no significant growth in market demand for the entire year, with only a slight increase in the utilization rate of mature processes in the first half of 2025 due to some demand shifting earlier in the year. Specific analysis of price trends for each process type is as follows: 12-inch (28/40nm): "Intensified price competition" Demand for 28/40nm in wafer foundries in mainland China is strong, with a utilization rate of over 90%, while demand for 28/40nm in wafer foundries in Taiwan and overseas is relatively low, with a utilization rate of less than 80%. However, due to cost advantages, mainland Chinese wafer fabs have lower pricing strategies, driving down prices for the above-mentioned process technologies. 12-inch (55/90nm): "Shortage risks dissipate, prices have not stopped falling yet" In 2024, due to the trend of capacity relocation to mainland China and some adjustments in business operations by overseas foundries, a large number of outsourcing orders have shifted to wafer fabs in mainland China, leading to a significant increase in the utilization rate for mature processes like 55/90nm. This initially caused prices for mainland Chinese foundries to rise. However, ongoing geopolitical influences led to some manufacturers transferring orders back to wafer fabs in Taiwan from the second half of 2024. As overall demand has not shown a rebound and the "delocalization" of orders has offset the structural shortage risk brought about by the earlier capacity relocation to mainland China, prices for these process technologies continue to decline. 8-inch wafers: "Price stabilization" Overall, the utilization rate of 8-inch application capacities is showing a recovery trend, but similar to 2024, there is still no strong demand stimulus in 2025. It is expected that the average capacity utilization rate of global 8-inch wafer foundries in the second quarter of 2025 will still be difficult to reach 70%. Nevertheless, the trend of price adjustments for 8-inch foundries has ceased for over 3 quarters, and Sigmaintell predicts that there is a low possibility of significant price adjustments by manufacturers in 2025.