National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: China's purchasing managers' index expansion accelerated in March.

On March 31, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In response, senior statistician Zhao Qinghe from the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center provided an interpretation. In March, as the impact of the Spring Festival gradually faded, business operations accelerated, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and Comprehensive PMI Output Index reaching 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, increasing by 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. All three major indexes continued to rise in the expansion range, indicating that China's economy overall remains in expansion. The full text is as follows: Expansion Accelerates in China's Purchasing Managers' Index in March - Interpretation of the March 2025 China Purchasing Managers' Index by senior statistician Zhao Qinghe from the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center On March 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In response, senior statistician Zhao Qinghe from the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center provided an interpretation. In March, as the impact of the Spring Festival gradually faded, business operations accelerated, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and Comprehensive PMI Output Index reaching 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, increasing by 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. All three major indexes continued to rise in the expansion range, indicating that China's economy overall remains in expansion. I. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Expands for Two Consecutive Months In March, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, indicating a continued recovery in business conditions. (1) Expansion Accelerates at Both Ends of Production and Demand. The production index and new orders index were 52.6% and 51.8% respectively, increasing by 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in expansion. By industry, the production index and new orders index for industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer communication, and electronic equipment were above 55.0% in the high business activity zone, indicating an acceleration in production and demand. On the other hand, industries such as wood processing and furniture, and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing had both indexes below the critical point, indicating insufficient supply and demand. Driven by the recovery in manufacturing production and demand, businesses were more willing to purchase, with the purchase quantity index at 51.8%, maintaining expansion for two consecutive months. (2) PMI Improved for Medium and Small-sized Enterprises. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point. The PMI for medium and small-sized enterprises were 49.9% and 49.6% respectively, an increase of 0.7 and 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating varying degrees of recovery in business conditions for medium and small-sized enterprises. Specifically, the production index and new orders index for small enterprises were 50.8% and 49.8% respectively, showing significant improvements from the previous month. (3) Stable Growth in Three Key Industries' PMI. The PMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 52.0%, 52.3%, and 50.0% respectively, increasing by 1.2, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a two-month consecutive increase in business conditions. However, the PMI for high-energy-consuming industries was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. (4) Price Indexes Slightly Decline. Influenced by recent fluctuations in the prices of commodities such as crude oil and iron ore, the index for major raw material procurement prices and factory prices were 49.8% and 47.9% respectively, a decrease of 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall decline in market prices in the manufacturing industry. However, industries such as food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting, and rolling processing had both indexes above 52.0% in the expansion zone, indicating an increase in prices for raw materials procurement and product sales in these industries. On the other hand, industries such as petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, and black metal smelting and rolling processing saw a decline in both price indexes from the previous month. (5) Market Expectations Are Generally Stable. The index for future production and business activities was 53.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion zone, indicating an overall optimistic outlook by manufacturing companies. Industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment had future production and business activity indexes above 60.0% in the high business activity zone, indicating strong confidence in industry development by related companies. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Accelerates Expansion In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the pace of expansion for non-manufacturing industries. (1) Recovery in Service Sector Business Conditions. The service sector business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in market activity in the service sector. Industries such as water transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission services, and monetary financial services had business activity indexes above 55.0% in the high business activity zone. With the gradual fading of the Spring Festival effect, industries related to consumer consumption such as catering, ecological protection and public facility management, and cultural, sports, and entertainment industries saw a slight decline in business activity indexes. The index for future business activity was 57.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and in the high business activity zone, indicating continued positive market expectations by most service industry companies. (2) Accelerated Construction Progress in the Construction Industry. Due to warmer weather and accelerated construction projects nationwide, the business activity index for the construction industry continued to rise to 53.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The index for future business activity also increased to 55.3%, reaching the high business activity zone, indicating increased confidence in the market development in the construction industry. III. Comprehensive PMI Output Index Continues to Rise In March, the Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 51.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a strengthening in business activity by Chinese enterprises. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the Comprehensive PMI Output Index were 52.6% and 50.8% respectively. Source: National Bureau of Statistics; GMTEight Editor: Huang Xiaodong.