Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: High-end pet consumer goods companies are expected to maintain resilience. Reiterated "Buy" ratings for Colgate-Palmolive (CL.US) and General Mills, Inc. (GIS.US)

date
28/03/2025
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GMT Eight
The recent data and management comments from consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies indicate that American consumers are showing increasingly cautious attitudes due to concerns about inflation, tariff uncertainty, and political turmoil such as that of GEO Group Inc. These factors are putting pressure on essential consumption companies as a whole. Although CPG companies may face increasing pressure in the short term, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has conducted a deep analysis of the pet food sector, revealing opportunities for related companies in the future. In particular, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has reiterated its "buy" rating for Colgate (CL.US) and General Mills, Inc. (GIS.US). According to the analysis, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that the high-quality products of these companies should prove to be resilient and drive growth in the coming years, to some extent insulating these companies from other consumer challenges elsewhere. For Colgate, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s bottom-up model suggests that sustained +MSD organic sales growth can be achieved by combining category growth in Hill's Pet nutrition business with market share growth in CKH HOLDINGS, supporting continued segment market profit margin expansion and helping Colgate achieve profit growth beyond 2026, despite continued reinvestment. Therefore, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has reiterated its "buy" rating for Colgate. For General Mills, Inc., we believe that the recovery of the pet business is a key driver for the company to return to a long-term algorithm of +2-3% by fiscal year 27 (ending in May), as fiscal year 26 was mainly a reinvestment year. Specifically, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sees that the company is on a path to long-term growth through recent acquisitions like Whitebridge for distribution expansion, as it currently operates mainly in the pet specialty and e-commerce sectors with low household penetration rates. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is encouraged by General Mills, Inc.'s recent sales acceleration and market share stability, noting that while private labels have grown, this highlights greater elasticity in the premium market. In the short term, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is cautious as the company continues to reinvest to improve its bottom line. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s analysis and views on these two companies are as follows: Colgate Hill's Pet nutrition, a subsidiary of Colgate, remains a key growth driver for the company's future. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects global premium cat and dog food categories to maintain strong median growth (+5%) through 2030, with a relatively balanced contribution from volume and price growth. In terms of volume, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects growth in dry dog food to slow down, while growth in wet dog food to accelerate. Additionally, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has a more optimistic view of the cat food market, expecting growth in cat food consumption in the future to drive growth in dry and wet cat food. Overall, while Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects category growth to be more moderate in the future, the firm believes that Colgate's pet food business can continue to outperform the category due to investments in innovation and advertising in recent years. With household penetration rates increasing from relatively low levels (currently at 6% in the US), additional capacity added (including dry and wet pet foods), we expect strong revenue growth and productivity savings to bring sustained segment market profit margin growth, supporting Colgate's steady growth in the coming years. General Mills, Inc. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. highlights the recovery of the pet business as a key driver for General Mills, Inc. to return to its long-term 2-3% organic sales growth by fiscal year 27, with fiscal year 26 being mainly a reinvestment year. As General Mills, Inc. continues to perform well in the premium market, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sees support for +MSD category growth over time; considering sustained humanization of pets, including a balanced contribution from price/product mix and volume, General Mills, Inc. outperforms the index. In addition to stable category growth, General Mills, Inc. has gained a significant market share through previous acquisitions for distribution expansion, and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects similar performance from its recent acquisition of Whitebridge. Specifically, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that General Mills, Inc. has a long way to go, as it currently operates mainly in the pet specialty and e-commerce sectors with low household penetration rates. Furthermore, this acquisition increases its exposure to the high-growth feline market. Over time, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. continues to see strong revenue growth and profit margin expansion opportunities for the company, but with the company continuing to reinvest to improve revenue performance, we take a cautious approach in the short term. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is optimistic about its recent sales resurgence.The stability of speed and market share is encouraging, although the growth of private brands highlights the greater flexibility of the high-end market. In addition, General Mills, Inc.'s exposure in the pet business partially shields it from the challenges faced by the packaged food industry.Bonjour, comment a va ?

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