Stephen Roche: The Fed is concerned about the risk shift, and the U.S. stock market may experience a correction.

Speaking of expectations for interest rate cuts, Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, pointed out that the Federal Reserve will not be pressured to adjust its policies due to political pressure. However, on the other hand, the fragility of the labor market, combined with the disruption of tariff factors, may prompt the Federal Reserve to lean towards a looser stance. Although risks have changed at the moment, the magnitude is not drastic, and future developments will still depend on the performance of future data. Roach also stated that the U.S. economy has shown signs of slowing down, with consumer spending growing at only half the average rate of the past few years. In addition, the investment frenzy in the field of AI hides bubble risks, and the market concentration of the "seven giants" of the U.S. stock market has already exceeded the level during the 2000 internet bubble period. "Therefore, I believe that there may be a certain degree of market correction in the U.S. stock market in the next six months," he said.