Before Powell's speech, the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in September was 75.5%

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 24.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75.5%. In October, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is 13%, with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 51.5% and a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut probability of 35.5%.