CITIC Securities: It appears that the U.S. stock market is starting to factor in the expectation of no interest rate cuts in September.

Guosen Securities research report stated that on July 30th local time, the Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting and kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and also maintained the pace of balance sheet reduction. Powell still worries about the risk of stagflation, meaning that as long as the inflation gap is higher than the employment gap, it will be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. Considering the transportation in transit, the additional tariffs on August 1st will only be reflected in the import data in September, and further transmitted to inflation in October and November. If so, the impact of tariff inflation may be slower and longer, and the Fed's interest rate cut decision may be delayed, and it is indeed possible not to cut interest rates in September. However, once the threshold of tariff inflation is crossed, the interest rate cut will become logical. The market may start preparing for the Fed not cutting interest rates in September. Currently, the market prices in a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, and the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor.