Focus of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision

date
31/07/2025
1. Will Fed Chairman Powell provide clues on the possibility of a rate cut by the FOMC in September? 2. How many Fed policymakers will dissent from the resolution statement? 3. The Fed's view on the US economy. On July 31 at 2:00 Beijing time, the Fed will release its rate decision statement - but there won't be a "quarterly" economic outlook summary, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a routine press conference at 2:30. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time the rate has been held steady. However, two board members may vote against the decision, which would be the first time since 1993 that two board members have simultaneously opposed a policy decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the federal funds futures market currently estimates a probability of around 68% for a "25 basis points rate cut by the Fed in September."