Zhongjin: If key officials of the Federal Reserve resign early, how to trade?

CCB released a research report stating that if the Chairman of the Federal Reserve resigns early, under the condition that other factors remain unchanged, it will be bearish for the US dollar, bullish for gold, with the short end of US bonds experiencing a bullish market while the medium and long ends experiencing a bearish market until the Federal Reserve restarts expanding its balance sheet to suppress long-term interest rates. Benefiting from the potential early restart of the liquidity cycle, the stock market valuations may also be bullish in the medium term. However, if the Chairman of the Federal Reserve completes the current term as usual, CCB predicts that the US Treasury Department will issue approximately $1.2 trillion in net US bonds in the third quarter, which may lead to liquidity tensions. Ultimately, it may still push the Federal Reserve to restart the expansion of its balance sheet and the liquidity cycle, forming a bullish market for US stocks and gold, and a bearish market for the US dollar. CCB predicts that during Trump's second term, monetary policy will be normalized with fiscal policy, and US liquidity is expected to remain ample in the long term.