Zhongjin: Aluminum consumption may experience a phased contraction, and prices are expected to decrease slightly.

According to the research report from Zhongjin, based on SMM statistics, the electrolytic aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, an increase of 1.57% year-on-year. The metallurgical grade alumina production was 7.258 million tons, an increase of 6.08% year-on-year. The export of unrolled aluminum and aluminum materials decreased by 19.84% year-on-year to 489,000 tons. Both aluminum ingot and aluminum bar saw unexpected destocking in June, driving spot premiums higher, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium in June recorded at around 98.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.5 yuan/ton month-on-month. However, as we enter July, we suggest paying attention to the impact of "anti-internal competition" on end demand. The automotive and photovoltaic component industries, both major consumers of aluminum downstream, may experience a temporary contraction in aluminum consumption. Coupled with the gradual replenishment of aluminum inventories, we expect prices to decrease slightly.