Traders are betting that summer will lift the fog for the Federal Reserve.

In the past few months, policymakers at the Federal Reserve have consistently stated that they hope fiscal and trade policies, as well as the economy's response, become clearer before taking further action on interest rates. Over the past month, this cautious stance has led traders to withdraw their bets on a rate cut at the June meeting, and the market currently expects the pause in policy to continue until the July meeting. However, futures market positions show that the probability of a rate cut before the end of September is still slightly higher than 50%. This essentially amounts to a bet on the clarity of the situation in the next four months: either inflation slows down, paving the way for policy easing, or a worsening economy forces the Federal Reserve to increase stimulus.