Economic Daily: Effectively stabilize expectations for real estate financing.

date
26/12/2025
The National Conference on Housing, Urban and Rural Construction held in Beijing on December 22-23 proposed that efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market by 2026. This includes further leveraging the role of the real estate project "white list" system to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises; in real estate financing, the lead bank system should be implemented. Promoting the high-quality development of the real estate sector is an objective requirement for advancing China's modernization. With a long industry chain and high degree of interconnection, the real estate sector has provided strong support for China's urbanization and economic and social development over the past 20 years. By 2024, the combined value added of the real estate and construction industries will account for 13% of the country's gross domestic product. In the long run, there is still great potential and space for the development of China's real estate sector. In promoting high-quality real estate development, the coordinated linkage mechanism of "people, houses, land, and money" is essential, among which the real estate financing system is a key element. The financing system affects the financing expectations of real estate enterprises, and if the financing expectations are unstable, related investment, sales, and other economic activities will be affected.
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CITIC Securities research report stated that the asset environment of major categories in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. We recommend commodities > stocks > bonds. In terms of equities, we expect the full-year increase in the Wande full A index in 2026 to be between 5% and 10%; Hong Kong stocks are expected to see a rebound in performance and a second round of valuation recovery in the Davis double click market; in the mid-term election year in the United States, with the "fiscal + monetary" double loosening background, it is expected to continue the momentum of fundamental growth. In terms of bonds, we expect the 10-year Chinese bond yield to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% throughout the year, with a downward pace followed by an upward trend; the 10-year US bond yield may fluctuate within the range of 3.9% to 4.3%. In terms of commodities, the supply-demand pattern of crude oil is expected to shift from surplus to balance, with Brent crude oil fluctuating in the range of 58-70 USD/barrel throughout the year; gold is expected to continue its strong performance under loose liquidity and geopolitical risk support, aiming to break through $5000/ounce, while copper is expected to rise to $12000/ton due to supply constraints and electric power demand. In terms of exchange rates, the renminbi may enter a mild appreciation cycle, and the central rate of the USD to RMB exchange rate is expected to gradually move closer to 6.8.
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