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CITIC Securities research report stated that the asset environment of major categories in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. We recommend commodities > stocks > bonds. In terms of equities, we expect the full-year increase in the Wande full A index in 2026 to be between 5% and 10%; Hong Kong stocks are expected to see a rebound in performance and a second round of valuation recovery in the Davis double click market; in the mid-term election year in the United States, with the "fiscal + monetary" double loosening background, it is expected to continue the momentum of fundamental growth. In terms of bonds, we expect the 10-year Chinese bond yield to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% throughout the year, with a downward pace followed by an upward trend; the 10-year US bond yield may fluctuate within the range of 3.9% to 4.3%. In terms of commodities, the supply-demand pattern of crude oil is expected to shift from surplus to balance, with Brent crude oil fluctuating in the range of 58-70 USD/barrel throughout the year; gold is expected to continue its strong performance under loose liquidity and geopolitical risk support, aiming to break through $5000/ounce, while copper is expected to rise to $12000/ton due to supply constraints and electric power demand. In terms of exchange rates, the renminbi may enter a mild appreciation cycle, and the central rate of the USD to RMB exchange rate is expected to gradually move closer to 6.8.
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