Guotai Haitong Food and Beverage Mid-Autumn and National Day Consumption Trend Interpretation: Holiday Consumption Continues to Grow

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that during the Mid-Autumn and National Day double holiday period, average daily sales of retail and catering enterprises continued to recover, with total volume maintaining growth; household consumption leaned rational, with service consumption overall stronger than goods consumption. The improvement trend in mass consumer goods is confirmed, baijiu is accelerating its clearing, and growth and oversold targets are recommended. 1) Baijiu is accelerating its bottoming-out, and targets that are the first to clear are recommended; 2) Condiments and prepared meals for catering have elasticity for volume and price recovery; 3) Health foods in an industry upcycle and some snacks are recommended; 4) Beer off-take is accelerating during peak season; 5) Beverages are growing; 6) Dairy products. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows: Business district revenue maintained growth, and high-level mobility of travelers supported scenario demand. Data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that during the Mid-Autumn Festival, average daily sales of key national retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year; in the first three days of the National Day holiday, foot traffic in business districts monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 3.4%, and revenue increased by 5.3%. During the three days of the Mid-Autumn Festival, cross-regional passenger flows across society totaled 643.161 million person-trips, averaging 214.387 million person-trips per day, up 2.2% from Mid-Autumn 2024; in the first four days of the National Day holiday, cross-regional passenger flows across society reached 1.244 billion person-trips, basically flat year-on-year. Driven by combining leave with the double holidays, medium- and long-distance interprovincial travel and return demand were active. Current total holiday consumption continued to recover, while household consumption leaned rational. High cost-performance and subsidized consumption were popular, service consumption was stronger than goods consumption, and county-level and local specialty scenarios became important sources of incremental growth. Baijiu: Peak season was lackluster, and National Day continued the Mid-Autumn performance. Baijiu industry sell-through during the 2026 double holidays was relatively lackluster. This time the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays were separated by leave, and among them National Day, as an important window for gifting and banquets, did not show obvious signs of acceleration. It is expected that the National Day baijiu sell-through trend will be broadly close to that of Mid-Autumn, and baijiu sales during the double holidays are expected to decline year-on-year. In comparison, baijiu prices performed better than sales volume. September shipments caused high-end baijiu wholesale prices to pull back slightly, but overall market confidence in prices remained. In terms of structure, market divergence during the double holidays remained obvious. By price band, high-end liquor and mass-market liquor priced at RMB 100-300 performed relatively well; by brand, leading players at each price level performed best. Overall, baijiu has shifted from being driven by channel shipments and inventory loading to being driven by real sell-through. Brands no longer strongly push task volumes, supply-side behavior remained rational during peak season, and actual channel sell-through performance is expected to be better than distillery shipments, with the industry continuing its destocking trend. Mass consumer goods: Holiday catering demand was concentrated, and family gatherings and travel brought incremental scenarios. Mid-Autumn catering mainly served family reunions and gatherings of relatives and friends, while National Day catering focused on scenarios such as tourists dining in stores, local leisure, and cross-city store exploration. Snack prosperity diverged, and value retail channels maintained a relative advantage. By category, healthy snacks such as high-protein and low-GI products saw a clear increase in popularity, and some segmented new products grew rapidly, with relatively large future potential. Risk warnings: Increased macroeconomic volatility, intensified industry competition, and food safety risks.